Teymour Bourial
@teymour.me
I write about energy and circularity.
Partner at ExoPeak.
Based in Paris.
Partner at ExoPeak.
Based in Paris.
Excellent piece by the @financialtimes.com on the formidable expansion of battery storage capacity globally.
With costs continuing to drop, BESS will likely scale faster than renewables did, as their rollout is less constrained by grid stability concerns.
With costs continuing to drop, BESS will likely scale faster than renewables did, as their rollout is less constrained by grid stability concerns.
October 13, 2025 at 7:34 AM
Excellent piece by the @financialtimes.com on the formidable expansion of battery storage capacity globally.
With costs continuing to drop, BESS will likely scale faster than renewables did, as their rollout is less constrained by grid stability concerns.
With costs continuing to drop, BESS will likely scale faster than renewables did, as their rollout is less constrained by grid stability concerns.
This is sad news.
It's also very ironic to see the AAI state that "EV sales mandates were never achievable" in the US when you look at where most other developed countries stand...
It's also very ironic to see the AAI state that "EV sales mandates were never achievable" in the US when you look at where most other developed countries stand...
May 27, 2025 at 1:40 PM
This is sad news.
It's also very ironic to see the AAI state that "EV sales mandates were never achievable" in the US when you look at where most other developed countries stand...
It's also very ironic to see the AAI state that "EV sales mandates were never achievable" in the US when you look at where most other developed countries stand...
Thanks for sharing. This is sad news.
It's also very ironic to see the AAI state that "EV sales mandates were never achievable" in the US when you look at where most other developed countries stand...
It's also very ironic to see the AAI state that "EV sales mandates were never achievable" in the US when you look at where most other developed countries stand...
May 27, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Thanks for sharing. This is sad news.
It's also very ironic to see the AAI state that "EV sales mandates were never achievable" in the US when you look at where most other developed countries stand...
It's also very ironic to see the AAI state that "EV sales mandates were never achievable" in the US when you look at where most other developed countries stand...
Thanks for sharing.
As a side note, this has to be one of the worst charts I've seen in a while.
As a side note, this has to be one of the worst charts I've seen in a while.
May 21, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Thanks for sharing.
As a side note, this has to be one of the worst charts I've seen in a while.
As a side note, this has to be one of the worst charts I've seen in a while.
Finally, critical minerals have become a “hot topic”, with VCs now investing in startups focused on expanding supply.
Battery and waste recycling and new extraction methods attract virtually all investments.
I hope we’ll see plenty of exciting innovations in the coming months/ years.
Battery and waste recycling and new extraction methods attract virtually all investments.
I hope we’ll see plenty of exciting innovations in the coming months/ years.
May 21, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Finally, critical minerals have become a “hot topic”, with VCs now investing in startups focused on expanding supply.
Battery and waste recycling and new extraction methods attract virtually all investments.
I hope we’ll see plenty of exciting innovations in the coming months/ years.
Battery and waste recycling and new extraction methods attract virtually all investments.
I hope we’ll see plenty of exciting innovations in the coming months/ years.
Sodium-ion is the only battery technology that could offer the West a semblance of grip over the supply chain, thanks to its abundant and widely distributed feedstock.
Yet its market presence remains limited (cf. previous chart), and China also dominates the downstream production stages.
Yet its market presence remains limited (cf. previous chart), and China also dominates the downstream production stages.
May 21, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Sodium-ion is the only battery technology that could offer the West a semblance of grip over the supply chain, thanks to its abundant and widely distributed feedstock.
Yet its market presence remains limited (cf. previous chart), and China also dominates the downstream production stages.
Yet its market presence remains limited (cf. previous chart), and China also dominates the downstream production stages.
Emerging battery tech is gaining ground - in particular LFP.
Bypassing China’s dominance was a major driver of battery tech R&D and investment, but in the case of LFP, China’s control is even stronger.
Bypassing China’s dominance was a major driver of battery tech R&D and investment, but in the case of LFP, China’s control is even stronger.
May 21, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Emerging battery tech is gaining ground - in particular LFP.
Bypassing China’s dominance was a major driver of battery tech R&D and investment, but in the case of LFP, China’s control is even stronger.
Bypassing China’s dominance was a major driver of battery tech R&D and investment, but in the case of LFP, China’s control is even stronger.
Another point that is not new, but worth re-stating: despite rapid growth in global mining capacity, copper remains a concern. A 30% supply shortfall is projected by 2035 under current policies due to falling ore grades and long lead times.
May 21, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Another point that is not new, but worth re-stating: despite rapid growth in global mining capacity, copper remains a concern. A 30% supply shortfall is projected by 2035 under current policies due to falling ore grades and long lead times.
China’s leadership creates supply security risks for other countries – which have been very visible in the recent months.
See below the impact that recent export restrictions had on prices.
See below the impact that recent export restrictions had on prices.
May 21, 2025 at 9:33 AM
China’s leadership creates supply security risks for other countries – which have been very visible in the recent months.
See below the impact that recent export restrictions had on prices.
See below the impact that recent export restrictions had on prices.
There are multiple reasons behind China’s leadership.
To name a few: control over extraction, strong gov subsidies that allowed rapid supply expansion and growing vertical integration of Chinese energy technology companies.
The chart below can serve as a partial illustration of that last point.
To name a few: control over extraction, strong gov subsidies that allowed rapid supply expansion and growing vertical integration of Chinese energy technology companies.
The chart below can serve as a partial illustration of that last point.
May 21, 2025 at 9:33 AM
There are multiple reasons behind China’s leadership.
To name a few: control over extraction, strong gov subsidies that allowed rapid supply expansion and growing vertical integration of Chinese energy technology companies.
The chart below can serve as a partial illustration of that last point.
To name a few: control over extraction, strong gov subsidies that allowed rapid supply expansion and growing vertical integration of Chinese energy technology companies.
The chart below can serve as a partial illustration of that last point.
With the (relative) exception of copper and nickel, China now leads refined production of all key critical minerals.
Not new, but always worth re-stating.
Not new, but always worth re-stating.
May 21, 2025 at 9:33 AM
With the (relative) exception of copper and nickel, China now leads refined production of all key critical minerals.
Not new, but always worth re-stating.
Not new, but always worth re-stating.
This is explained by simple supply-demand dynamics, illustrated below with the example of lithium.
Global lithium demand surged nearly 30% in 2024 - three times the 2010s average - but supply grew even faster, rising by 40% and outpacing demand.
Global lithium demand surged nearly 30% in 2024 - three times the 2010s average - but supply grew even faster, rising by 40% and outpacing demand.
May 21, 2025 at 9:33 AM
This is explained by simple supply-demand dynamics, illustrated below with the example of lithium.
Global lithium demand surged nearly 30% in 2024 - three times the 2010s average - but supply grew even faster, rising by 40% and outpacing demand.
Global lithium demand surged nearly 30% in 2024 - three times the 2010s average - but supply grew even faster, rising by 40% and outpacing demand.
Prices for key battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel declined significantly in 2024 as supply growth outpaced demand. Lithium prices fell over 80% from their 2022 peak.
Interestingly, the exact opposite is happening for base metals.
Interestingly, the exact opposite is happening for base metals.
May 21, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Prices for key battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel declined significantly in 2024 as supply growth outpaced demand. Lithium prices fell over 80% from their 2022 peak.
Interestingly, the exact opposite is happening for base metals.
Interestingly, the exact opposite is happening for base metals.
Thanks for sharing, Chris. To be fair, receiving countries likely won’t miss it if the West stops. Aid was always more about influence than help, creating debt, dependence, and markets for our goods. The main downside is that China will likely fill the gap and push its own agenda (cf. map below).
March 29, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Thanks for sharing, Chris. To be fair, receiving countries likely won’t miss it if the West stops. Aid was always more about influence than help, creating debt, dependence, and markets for our goods. The main downside is that China will likely fill the gap and push its own agenda (cf. map below).
Thin-film PVs like the ones Sekisui is trying to scale still have *many* shortcomings, especially in terms of yield.
Yet, these concerns may lessen if steep tariffs are placed on Chinese PVs, and generous subsidies are given to Western thin-film PV manufacturers.
Yet, these concerns may lessen if steep tariffs are placed on Chinese PVs, and generous subsidies are given to Western thin-film PV manufacturers.
March 7, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Thin-film PVs like the ones Sekisui is trying to scale still have *many* shortcomings, especially in terms of yield.
Yet, these concerns may lessen if steep tariffs are placed on Chinese PVs, and generous subsidies are given to Western thin-film PV manufacturers.
Yet, these concerns may lessen if steep tariffs are placed on Chinese PVs, and generous subsidies are given to Western thin-film PV manufacturers.
Japan is particularly interesting. They have committed to provide Sekisui with €1bn worth of subsidies to further develop perovskite PV.
These can be produced with less reliance on China. Their main ingredient is iodine, of which Japan is the world's second-largest producer, after Chile.
These can be produced with less reliance on China. Their main ingredient is iodine, of which Japan is the world's second-largest producer, after Chile.
March 7, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Japan is particularly interesting. They have committed to provide Sekisui with €1bn worth of subsidies to further develop perovskite PV.
These can be produced with less reliance on China. Their main ingredient is iodine, of which Japan is the world's second-largest producer, after Chile.
These can be produced with less reliance on China. Their main ingredient is iodine, of which Japan is the world's second-largest producer, after Chile.
As a result, we're seeing a race to the bottom in terms of price/ margins.
This is one of the drivers behind LONGi's recent earnings slip for instance.
This is one of the drivers behind LONGi's recent earnings slip for instance.
March 7, 2025 at 1:21 PM
As a result, we're seeing a race to the bottom in terms of price/ margins.
This is one of the drivers behind LONGi's recent earnings slip for instance.
This is one of the drivers behind LONGi's recent earnings slip for instance.
Tables seem to be turning though.
State-sponsored subsidies have twisted the sector's economics, to the point where China's total PV manufacturing capacity now largely exceeds current global demand.
State-sponsored subsidies have twisted the sector's economics, to the point where China's total PV manufacturing capacity now largely exceeds current global demand.
March 7, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Tables seem to be turning though.
State-sponsored subsidies have twisted the sector's economics, to the point where China's total PV manufacturing capacity now largely exceeds current global demand.
State-sponsored subsidies have twisted the sector's economics, to the point where China's total PV manufacturing capacity now largely exceeds current global demand.
Some of these profits have also been reinvested in the vertical integration and consolidation of China's top PV players.
Again, this allowed for greater competitiveness vs. other countries.
Again, this allowed for greater competitiveness vs. other countries.
March 7, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Some of these profits have also been reinvested in the vertical integration and consolidation of China's top PV players.
Again, this allowed for greater competitiveness vs. other countries.
Again, this allowed for greater competitiveness vs. other countries.
State subsidies and low domestic power prices are the two other key drivers of China's success.
Both have allowed Chinese players to consistently undercut competitors, while still making healthy profits and ramping up volume that allowed for greater economies of scale.
Both have allowed Chinese players to consistently undercut competitors, while still making healthy profits and ramping up volume that allowed for greater economies of scale.
March 7, 2025 at 1:21 PM
State subsidies and low domestic power prices are the two other key drivers of China's success.
Both have allowed Chinese players to consistently undercut competitors, while still making healthy profits and ramping up volume that allowed for greater economies of scale.
Both have allowed Chinese players to consistently undercut competitors, while still making healthy profits and ramping up volume that allowed for greater economies of scale.
Control over polysilicon production is one of the main reasons behind China's success in the PV market.
They produce >80% of the polysilicon in the world, which is a key component for crystalline PV production.
They produce >80% of the polysilicon in the world, which is a key component for crystalline PV production.
March 7, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Control over polysilicon production is one of the main reasons behind China's success in the PV market.
They produce >80% of the polysilicon in the world, which is a key component for crystalline PV production.
They produce >80% of the polysilicon in the world, which is a key component for crystalline PV production.
20 years ago, China produced ≈5% of PV panels. Today, they dominate with >80% in all manufacturing stages.
Despite this growth, the outlook seems gloomy for Chinese players.
A few thoughts on what sparked this growth, what's happening now and how the West is pushing back amid rising tensions.
Despite this growth, the outlook seems gloomy for Chinese players.
A few thoughts on what sparked this growth, what's happening now and how the West is pushing back amid rising tensions.
March 7, 2025 at 1:21 PM
20 years ago, China produced ≈5% of PV panels. Today, they dominate with >80% in all manufacturing stages.
Despite this growth, the outlook seems gloomy for Chinese players.
A few thoughts on what sparked this growth, what's happening now and how the West is pushing back amid rising tensions.
Despite this growth, the outlook seems gloomy for Chinese players.
A few thoughts on what sparked this growth, what's happening now and how the West is pushing back amid rising tensions.
Unclear whether we'll scale on time, but there are some positive signs with significant investment flowing into the battery recycling industry, and ambitious policies.
The EU Battery Regulation for instance sets mandatory targets for the share of recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt.
The EU Battery Regulation for instance sets mandatory targets for the share of recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt.
February 13, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Unclear whether we'll scale on time, but there are some positive signs with significant investment flowing into the battery recycling industry, and ambitious policies.
The EU Battery Regulation for instance sets mandatory targets for the share of recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt.
The EU Battery Regulation for instance sets mandatory targets for the share of recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt.
All those issues are set to get more pressing, as the production volumes of battery and the demand for associated materials sky rocket.
February 13, 2025 at 11:11 AM
All those issues are set to get more pressing, as the production volumes of battery and the demand for associated materials sky rocket.
Finally, the environmental impact of mining the materials found in batteries has mostly been overlooked thus far.
Growing constraints on energy and water supply could drive recycling rates up, as recycling has a >50% lower environmental impact than conventional mining.
Growing constraints on energy and water supply could drive recycling rates up, as recycling has a >50% lower environmental impact than conventional mining.
February 13, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Finally, the environmental impact of mining the materials found in batteries has mostly been overlooked thus far.
Growing constraints on energy and water supply could drive recycling rates up, as recycling has a >50% lower environmental impact than conventional mining.
Growing constraints on energy and water supply could drive recycling rates up, as recycling has a >50% lower environmental impact than conventional mining.