The Cruncher
@tcau.dev
Predictions and analysis for League, AFL and Netball (and sometimes elections). #rstats, data and programming enthusiast
tcau.dev (website) and
thecruncherau.substack.com (blog)
tcau.dev (website) and
thecruncherau.substack.com (blog)
Super excited to announce a project I've been working on for a little while now: a ladder predictor that's actually fun to use
Only NRL 2026 is available for now, but planning on adding more leagues soon
Try it at tcau.dev/league/m/pre...
Only NRL 2026 is available for now, but planning on adding more leagues soon
Try it at tcau.dev/league/m/pre...
November 16, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Super excited to announce a project I've been working on for a little while now: a ladder predictor that's actually fun to use
Only NRL 2026 is available for now, but planning on adding more leagues soon
Try it at tcau.dev/league/m/pre...
Only NRL 2026 is available for now, but planning on adding more leagues soon
Try it at tcau.dev/league/m/pre...
Reece Walsh's half-year transformation: maybe it wasn't the toilet water?
October 10, 2025 at 2:23 AM
Reece Walsh's half-year transformation: maybe it wasn't the toilet water?
Lineups out, here's the model's updated estimate for #AFLCatsDogs
May 21, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Lineups out, here's the model's updated estimate for #AFLCatsDogs
Here's the updated match network, with the Circle of Parity from above highlighted in red
May 18, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Here's the updated match network, with the Circle of Parity from above highlighted in red
don't worry Potato of Parity stans, I got you covered
May 18, 2025 at 9:30 AM
don't worry Potato of Parity stans, I got you covered
With tonight's result, the 2025 AFL Circle of Parity is officially complete
May 18, 2025 at 9:25 AM
With tonight's result, the 2025 AFL Circle of Parity is officially complete
Proud to announce Stephen Gallagher's #NRL Pronunciation Guide now has its own website! See phonetic pronunciations and listen to recordings of every player's name.
Check it out at pg.tcau.dev/nrl
Check it out at pg.tcau.dev/nrl
May 9, 2025 at 6:20 AM
Proud to announce Stephen Gallagher's #NRL Pronunciation Guide now has its own website! See phonetic pronunciations and listen to recordings of every player's name.
Check it out at pg.tcau.dev/nrl
Check it out at pg.tcau.dev/nrl
May 8, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Lineups out, here's the updated tip for #AFLFreoPies
May 8, 2025 at 4:18 AM
Lineups out, here's the updated tip for #AFLFreoPies
What about when the margin is 4 converted tries or less? There's no clear evidence of a rubber band effect
2/2
2/2
May 7, 2025 at 6:22 AM
What about when the margin is 4 converted tries or less? There's no clear evidence of a rubber band effect
2/2
2/2
No lineup data available yet but yowzahh
April 21, 2025 at 9:24 AM
No lineup data available yet but yowzahh
Match network visualisation, longest cycle highlighted
April 13, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Match network visualisation, longest cycle highlighted
The very first poll listed on Wikipedia is the Roy Morgan one at the bottom. The actual undecided portion published is 4.5%, but this isn't shown. And, 'other' includes independents and other parties (4.5% + 7%).
April 10, 2025 at 3:01 AM
The very first poll listed on Wikipedia is the Roy Morgan one at the bottom. The actual undecided portion published is 4.5%, but this isn't shown. And, 'other' includes independents and other parties (4.5% + 7%).
it's not just Carlton fans struggling after the first 5 weeks of the season
(seen here: my match network plotter really trying its best)
(seen here: my match network plotter really trying its best)
April 7, 2025 at 11:29 AM
it's not just Carlton fans struggling after the first 5 weeks of the season
(seen here: my match network plotter really trying its best)
(seen here: my match network plotter really trying its best)
AFL match network after Round 4
Longest path: 7 steps
Longest cycle: none exists
Longest path: 7 steps
Longest cycle: none exists
April 7, 2025 at 11:22 AM
AFL match network after Round 4
Longest path: 7 steps
Longest cycle: none exists
Longest path: 7 steps
Longest cycle: none exists
Only 7 below-average teams in the AFL at the moment according to the model
April 6, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Only 7 below-average teams in the AFL at the moment according to the model
Storm's rating getting slightly scary
April 6, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Storm's rating getting slightly scary
How common is each letter in Australian electorate names? definitely some surprises there
April 1, 2025 at 1:34 AM
How common is each letter in Australian electorate names? definitely some surprises there
AFL Match network after Round 3
March 31, 2025 at 5:26 AM
AFL Match network after Round 3
first time I've seen ChatGPT here
March 29, 2025 at 12:32 PM
first time I've seen ChatGPT here