Thanassis Cambanis
@tcambanis.bsky.social
Director of @CenturyIntl, senior fellow @TCFdotorg.
Books: Iraq war (forthcoming), Once Upon a Revolution, Shia Power, Hezbollah, Hybrid Actors, Citizenship & Discontents.
Books: Iraq war (forthcoming), Once Upon a Revolution, Shia Power, Hezbollah, Hybrid Actors, Citizenship & Discontents.
For now, attention has shifted away from America’s decision in late June to join an elective war against Iran.
The disaster is still unfolding — though it’s not too late to correct course.
1/3
The disaster is still unfolding — though it’s not too late to correct course.
1/3
America Can Still Escape Disaster in Iran
It was just a month ago that Donald Trump bombed Iran against the advice of his own intelligence services and claimed that the country’s nuclear
tcf.org
August 5, 2025 at 4:26 PM
For now, attention has shifted away from America’s decision in late June to join an elective war against Iran.
The disaster is still unfolding — though it’s not too late to correct course.
1/3
The disaster is still unfolding — though it’s not too late to correct course.
1/3
Reposted by Thanassis Cambanis
Israel and the United States aren’t after regime change in Iran.
Their goal is to break the Iranian state, writes CI fellow @veenaa.bsky.social in a new commentary.
That’s a huge problem—for the region, for the Iranian people, for U.S. interests, and even for Israel (1/3) tcf.org/content/comm...
Their goal is to break the Iranian state, writes CI fellow @veenaa.bsky.social in a new commentary.
That’s a huge problem—for the region, for the Iranian people, for U.S. interests, and even for Israel (1/3) tcf.org/content/comm...
Israel and the United States Are Planting a Harvest of Chaos in Iran
The first phase of Israel’s war in Iran has been astonishingly effective. Israel is now in total control of Iranian airspace. A who’s-who of Iranian
tcf.org
June 23, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Israel and the United States aren’t after regime change in Iran.
Their goal is to break the Iranian state, writes CI fellow @veenaa.bsky.social in a new commentary.
That’s a huge problem—for the region, for the Iranian people, for U.S. interests, and even for Israel (1/3) tcf.org/content/comm...
Their goal is to break the Iranian state, writes CI fellow @veenaa.bsky.social in a new commentary.
That’s a huge problem—for the region, for the Iranian people, for U.S. interests, and even for Israel (1/3) tcf.org/content/comm...
Even when Trump makes good foreign policy moves (lifting Syria sanctions, proposing Iran deal), there's no policy process.
Just unpredictable imperial caprice.
That means we cannot count on implementation of the few good policies — or any strategic consistency.
Just unpredictable imperial caprice.
That means we cannot count on implementation of the few good policies — or any strategic consistency.
May 21, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Even when Trump makes good foreign policy moves (lifting Syria sanctions, proposing Iran deal), there's no policy process.
Just unpredictable imperial caprice.
That means we cannot count on implementation of the few good policies — or any strategic consistency.
Just unpredictable imperial caprice.
That means we cannot count on implementation of the few good policies — or any strategic consistency.
Reposted by Thanassis Cambanis
In search of a Trump Doctrine: CI fellows analyze the president’s MENA trip & conclude that transactionalism is the only unifying credo—even when some outcomes are good. Read more from @aronlund.bsky.social @abujamajem.com @tcambanis.bsky.social
@dahliasc.bsky.social @rohanadvani.bsky.social
@dahliasc.bsky.social @rohanadvani.bsky.social
Roundtable: Trump’s Middle East Transactions
The Century Foundation The Century Foundation The Century Foundation
tcf.org
May 20, 2025 at 10:47 PM
In search of a Trump Doctrine: CI fellows analyze the president’s MENA trip & conclude that transactionalism is the only unifying credo—even when some outcomes are good. Read more from @aronlund.bsky.social @abujamajem.com @tcambanis.bsky.social
@dahliasc.bsky.social @rohanadvani.bsky.social
@dahliasc.bsky.social @rohanadvani.bsky.social
Reposted by Thanassis Cambanis
@centuryintl.bsky.social roundtable on Trump's Gulf tour, featuring @aronlund.bsky.social, @rohanadvani.bsky.social, @veenaa.bsky.social, @tcambanis.bsky.social and @dahliasc.bsky.social 👇🏻
With my take on Syria sanctions relief: "an entirely screwed up way to arrive at the ideal policy outcome."
With my take on Syria sanctions relief: "an entirely screwed up way to arrive at the ideal policy outcome."
Roundtable: Trump’s Middle East Transactions
Century International: President Donald J. Trump showcased his signature foreign policy style on his Middle East tour last week, revealing as much as
tcf.org
May 21, 2025 at 6:14 AM
@centuryintl.bsky.social roundtable on Trump's Gulf tour, featuring @aronlund.bsky.social, @rohanadvani.bsky.social, @veenaa.bsky.social, @tcambanis.bsky.social and @dahliasc.bsky.social 👇🏻
With my take on Syria sanctions relief: "an entirely screwed up way to arrive at the ideal policy outcome."
With my take on Syria sanctions relief: "an entirely screwed up way to arrive at the ideal policy outcome."
Reposted by Thanassis Cambanis
Faced with the most serious threat in its history, the Iran-aligned “Axis of Resistance” is turning back to basics: local power. (1/6)
April 22, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Faced with the most serious threat in its history, the Iran-aligned “Axis of Resistance” is turning back to basics: local power. (1/6)
Reposted by Thanassis Cambanis
In 2023 and 2024, everyone including its own members overestimated the Iran-led Axis of Resistance.
In 2025, maybe everyone underestimates it?
Good @centuryintl.bsky.social read by @veenaa.bsky.social and @tcambanis.bsky.social: tcf.org/content/repo...
In 2025, maybe everyone underestimates it?
Good @centuryintl.bsky.social read by @veenaa.bsky.social and @tcambanis.bsky.social: tcf.org/content/repo...
Down but Not Out: Reassessing the Axis of Resistance
The events of the last year have upended many assumptions about the Axis of Resistance, the loosely defined network of Iran and its core partners. For as
tcf.org
April 17, 2025 at 3:32 PM
In 2023 and 2024, everyone including its own members overestimated the Iran-led Axis of Resistance.
In 2025, maybe everyone underestimates it?
Good @centuryintl.bsky.social read by @veenaa.bsky.social and @tcambanis.bsky.social: tcf.org/content/repo...
In 2025, maybe everyone underestimates it?
Good @centuryintl.bsky.social read by @veenaa.bsky.social and @tcambanis.bsky.social: tcf.org/content/repo...
Syria's transition faces a thousand risks, but it still could provide an inspiration, if the new order enshrines rights that are universal, rather than sectarian or communal.
April 8, 2025 at 2:27 AM
Syria's transition faces a thousand risks, but it still could provide an inspiration, if the new order enshrines rights that are universal, rather than sectarian or communal.
Reposted by Thanassis Cambanis
What is the biggest threat to a democratic transition in Syria after Assad?
DAWN's new Democracy in Exile Roundtable featuring
@loubnamrie.bsky.social @mbazzi.bsky.social @tcambanis.bsky.social @stevenhyde.bsky.social @abujamajem.com and many more:
DAWN's new Democracy in Exile Roundtable featuring
@loubnamrie.bsky.social @mbazzi.bsky.social @tcambanis.bsky.social @stevenhyde.bsky.social @abujamajem.com and many more:
The Threats to Syria’s Political Transition: A Democracy in Exile Roundtable
The euphoria that erupted across Syria after the sudden fall of the Assad regime in early December has since given way to harsh realities—of sectarian violence, the dual traumas of a 14-year civil war...
dawnmena.org
April 4, 2025 at 3:37 PM
What is the biggest threat to a democratic transition in Syria after Assad?
DAWN's new Democracy in Exile Roundtable featuring
@loubnamrie.bsky.social @mbazzi.bsky.social @tcambanis.bsky.social @stevenhyde.bsky.social @abujamajem.com and many more:
DAWN's new Democracy in Exile Roundtable featuring
@loubnamrie.bsky.social @mbazzi.bsky.social @tcambanis.bsky.social @stevenhyde.bsky.social @abujamajem.com and many more:
Really excited to take bold progressive stands with the new president here at @tcfdotorg.bsky.social!
Julie Morgan (@jmargetta.bsky.social) takes the @tcfdotorg.bsky.social helm at a time when Americans are facing enormous challenges—and the government’s ability to address them is increasingly under attack. Learn more: bit.ly/TCFJulie
April 2, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Really excited to take bold progressive stands with the new president here at @tcfdotorg.bsky.social!
The SIgnal chat was an embarrassing security lapse. The Yemen policy is worse.
Trump’s security team is obsessed with raw power and transactionalism — not actual security and results.
White House now sees the U.S. security umbrella not as a guarantee but as a commodity for sale.
Trump’s security team is obsessed with raw power and transactionalism — not actual security and results.
White House now sees the U.S. security umbrella not as a guarantee but as a commodity for sale.
Texting Military Plans Is Bad. American Policy in Yemen Is Worse.
Since news broke that Trump administration officials shared details of military strikes on Yemen via a group chat that included The Atlantic’s Jeffrey
tcf.org
April 1, 2025 at 9:26 PM
The SIgnal chat was an embarrassing security lapse. The Yemen policy is worse.
Trump’s security team is obsessed with raw power and transactionalism — not actual security and results.
White House now sees the U.S. security umbrella not as a guarantee but as a commodity for sale.
Trump’s security team is obsessed with raw power and transactionalism — not actual security and results.
White House now sees the U.S. security umbrella not as a guarantee but as a commodity for sale.
Reposted by Thanassis Cambanis
Persian Gulf countries can’t avoid dealing with the Trump administration, but American “gifts” could lock them into risky long-term arrangements—whether in finance, security, or politics. New commentary from @rohanadvani.bsky.social
Will Gulf Countries Think Trump's Glitter Is Gold?
The Century Foundation The Century Foundation The Century Foundation
tcf.org
March 24, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Persian Gulf countries can’t avoid dealing with the Trump administration, but American “gifts” could lock them into risky long-term arrangements—whether in finance, security, or politics. New commentary from @rohanadvani.bsky.social
New report on Axis of Resistance begins corrective work of figuring out *how* diminished is Iran’s network and how, inevitably, it will adapt.
US policymakers need to face facts: it’s too soon to write the epitaph for the Axis of Resistance. Axis groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis have been diminished, but retain significant local power as a decentralized network, argue @veenaa.bsky.social and @tcambanis.bsky.social in a new report. 1/3
March 20, 2025 at 6:23 PM
New report on Axis of Resistance begins corrective work of figuring out *how* diminished is Iran’s network and how, inevitably, it will adapt.
In Damascus in February, I met with dozens of Syrians. Their personal narratives should ground any thinking about Syria’s precarious transition.
Takeaway: Syrians are divided along multiple lines — but Assad’s fall has removed the deadliest, most toxic threat.
1/7
Takeaway: Syrians are divided along multiple lines — but Assad’s fall has removed the deadliest, most toxic threat.
1/7
March 18, 2025 at 6:01 PM
In Damascus in February, I met with dozens of Syrians. Their personal narratives should ground any thinking about Syria’s precarious transition.
Takeaway: Syrians are divided along multiple lines — but Assad’s fall has removed the deadliest, most toxic threat.
1/7
Takeaway: Syrians are divided along multiple lines — but Assad’s fall has removed the deadliest, most toxic threat.
1/7
Reposted by Thanassis Cambanis
Sectarian attacks in Syria have shaken the country.
But a dispatch from @tcambanis.bsky.social reminds that the end of the Assad regime is a moral triumph—and has removed the deadliest threat, by far, to Syrians.
But a dispatch from @tcambanis.bsky.social reminds that the end of the Assad regime is a moral triumph—and has removed the deadliest threat, by far, to Syrians.
Damascus Dispatch: Fear and Hope in a Divided Syria
The Century Foundation The Century Foundation The Century Foundation
tcf.org
March 18, 2025 at 8:03 AM
Sectarian attacks in Syria have shaken the country.
But a dispatch from @tcambanis.bsky.social reminds that the end of the Assad regime is a moral triumph—and has removed the deadliest threat, by far, to Syrians.
But a dispatch from @tcambanis.bsky.social reminds that the end of the Assad regime is a moral triumph—and has removed the deadliest threat, by far, to Syrians.
@jbdacey.bsky.social cuts through the noise with six things Europe can do right now to help Syria.
Not coincidentally, these are the types of things the EU needs to do everywhere in order to promote European interests and values in a world buffeted by wild Trump policies.
Not coincidentally, these are the types of things the EU needs to do everywhere in order to promote European interests and values in a world buffeted by wild Trump policies.
With violent clashes in #Syria, a new piece by @jbdacey.bsky.social looking at some of the warning signs and the need for Europeans to urgently increase stabilisation support
The road ahead: Six ways Europeans can urgently support a stable Syria
After the fall of Assad, many Syrians hope for a better future. But intense political and economic challenges risk derailing the transition. Europeans urgently need to do more to help stabilise…
buff.ly
March 13, 2025 at 9:23 PM
@jbdacey.bsky.social cuts through the noise with six things Europe can do right now to help Syria.
Not coincidentally, these are the types of things the EU needs to do everywhere in order to promote European interests and values in a world buffeted by wild Trump policies.
Not coincidentally, these are the types of things the EU needs to do everywhere in order to promote European interests and values in a world buffeted by wild Trump policies.
Reposted by Thanassis Cambanis
Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran puts the Iraqi government in a bind: Baghdad must be careful not to antagonize America, while staying conflict-free with its neighbors - @sajadjiyad.bsky.social in a new commentary.
Iraq Walks a Tightrope into the New Trump Era
Donald Trump’s second presidency promises another four-year tightrope walk for Iraq. More than two decades after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq remains
tcf.org
March 4, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran puts the Iraqi government in a bind: Baghdad must be careful not to antagonize America, while staying conflict-free with its neighbors - @sajadjiyad.bsky.social in a new commentary.
Trump & Erdogan — emblematic case study of international politics as game of megalomaniac authoritarian personalities.
However the relationship turns, it won't be good for the world.
@nicholasdanfort.bsky.social for @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
However the relationship turns, it won't be good for the world.
@nicholasdanfort.bsky.social for @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
Trump and Erdogan: Corrupt Friends or Civilizational Foes?
American relations with Turkey have always contained contradictions. As Donald Trump embarks on another four years of foreign policy transactionalism,
tcf.org
February 24, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Trump & Erdogan — emblematic case study of international politics as game of megalomaniac authoritarian personalities.
However the relationship turns, it won't be good for the world.
@nicholasdanfort.bsky.social for @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
However the relationship turns, it won't be good for the world.
@nicholasdanfort.bsky.social for @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
Reposted by Thanassis Cambanis
Missed this morning's event on the future of Gaza? Catch the recording of @dahliasc.bsky.social and @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org in conversation with Century International director @tcambanis.bsky.social
Trump Pledged to End the War in Gaza. So What Happens Now?
*Please Note: The livestream will begin on this page at the time of the event. If the stream is not working or visible, please refresh your browser. On
tcf.org
February 18, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Missed this morning's event on the future of Gaza? Catch the recording of @dahliasc.bsky.social and @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org in conversation with Century International director @tcambanis.bsky.social
Our event on Gaza and Palestine in the age of Trump is tomorrow
Virtual Event: “Trump Pledged to End the War in Gaza. So What Happens Now?”
Feat. @centuryintl.bsky.social ’s @tcambanis.bsky.social, @elgindy.bsky.social, and @dahliasc.bsky.social
📆Tuesday, February 18
⏰ 12–1 pm EST
🔗 bit.ly/GazaRSVP | RSVP today
Feat. @centuryintl.bsky.social ’s @tcambanis.bsky.social, @elgindy.bsky.social, and @dahliasc.bsky.social
📆Tuesday, February 18
⏰ 12–1 pm EST
🔗 bit.ly/GazaRSVP | RSVP today
Trump Pledged to End the War in Gaza. So What Happens Now?
Join us as we discuss the realities unfolding in society and politics in Israel and Palestine.
bit.ly
February 18, 2025 at 2:39 AM
Our event on Gaza and Palestine in the age of Trump is tomorrow
Virtual Event: “Trump Pledged to End the War in Gaza. So What Happens Now?”
Feat. @centuryintl.bsky.social ’s @tcambanis.bsky.social, @elgindy.bsky.social, and @dahliasc.bsky.social
📆Tuesday, February 18
⏰ 12–1 pm EST
🔗 bit.ly/GazaRSVP | RSVP today
Feat. @centuryintl.bsky.social ’s @tcambanis.bsky.social, @elgindy.bsky.social, and @dahliasc.bsky.social
📆Tuesday, February 18
⏰ 12–1 pm EST
🔗 bit.ly/GazaRSVP | RSVP today
Trump Pledged to End the War in Gaza. So What Happens Now?
Join us as we discuss the realities unfolding in society and politics in Israel and Palestine.
bit.ly
February 14, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Virtual Event: “Trump Pledged to End the War in Gaza. So What Happens Now?”
Feat. @centuryintl.bsky.social ’s @tcambanis.bsky.social, @elgindy.bsky.social, and @dahliasc.bsky.social
📆Tuesday, February 18
⏰ 12–1 pm EST
🔗 bit.ly/GazaRSVP | RSVP today
Feat. @centuryintl.bsky.social ’s @tcambanis.bsky.social, @elgindy.bsky.social, and @dahliasc.bsky.social
📆Tuesday, February 18
⏰ 12–1 pm EST
🔗 bit.ly/GazaRSVP | RSVP today
Reposted by Thanassis Cambanis
The Oslo two-state solution has failed.
The one-state reality of Israeli citizens and oppressed Palestinian subjects is a travesty.
Palestinians & Israelis should instead seek a confederation of two equal states with freedom and rights for all—@dahliasc.bsky.social in a new report.
The one-state reality of Israeli citizens and oppressed Palestinian subjects is a travesty.
Palestinians & Israelis should instead seek a confederation of two equal states with freedom and rights for all—@dahliasc.bsky.social in a new report.
Two States, Together: An Alternative Vision for Palestinians and Israelis
The Century Foundation takes your data security and privacy seriously. That's why we want you to know that, when you visit our website, we use technologies like cookies to collect anonymized data so…
buff.ly
January 28, 2025 at 5:17 PM
The Oslo two-state solution has failed.
The one-state reality of Israeli citizens and oppressed Palestinian subjects is a travesty.
Palestinians & Israelis should instead seek a confederation of two equal states with freedom and rights for all—@dahliasc.bsky.social in a new report.
The one-state reality of Israeli citizens and oppressed Palestinian subjects is a travesty.
Palestinians & Israelis should instead seek a confederation of two equal states with freedom and rights for all—@dahliasc.bsky.social in a new report.
I returned to Brooklyn upon a freezing evening ready to jump on my bike and go home.
Alas it was not to be.
Generously they left the seat.
Alas it was not to be.
Generously they left the seat.
January 10, 2025 at 4:24 AM
I returned to Brooklyn upon a freezing evening ready to jump on my bike and go home.
Alas it was not to be.
Generously they left the seat.
Alas it was not to be.
Generously they left the seat.
Lebanon broke a multiyear deadlock, electing Army Chief Joesph Aoun president.
The thaw is part of the continuing cascade of consequences from October 7 and Israel’s total war — but is not likely to produce a transformational moment for Lebanon.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
The thaw is part of the continuing cascade of consequences from October 7 and Israel’s total war — but is not likely to produce a transformational moment for Lebanon.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Joseph Aoun: Army chief elected Lebanon's president
The crisis-plagued country's divided parliament ends a power vacuum that lasted more than two years.
www.bbc.com
January 9, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Lebanon broke a multiyear deadlock, electing Army Chief Joesph Aoun president.
The thaw is part of the continuing cascade of consequences from October 7 and Israel’s total war — but is not likely to produce a transformational moment for Lebanon.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
The thaw is part of the continuing cascade of consequences from October 7 and Israel’s total war — but is not likely to produce a transformational moment for Lebanon.
www.bbc.com/news/article...