@tashecon.bsky.social
Economist, geopolitical thinker. I write a lot about Ukraine and Turkey. LUFC.
Türkiye - last man standing in Europe. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Türkiye - last man standing in Europe
I have managed a few trips to Türkiye in recent weeks, plus a D.C.
open.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Türkiye - last man standing in Europe. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Europe immobilised on CBR assets - hopefully not for long. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Europe immobilised on CBR assets
It is disappointing to wake up to the news that EU leaders failed to agree on the Reparations Loan (RL) concept at their meeting last night in Brussels.
open.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Europe immobilised on CBR assets - hopefully not for long. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
I spoke to Times Radio about the fuel crisis in Russia, the success of Ukrainian Deep Strike drones, sanctions and immobilised CBR assets, youtu.be/sbLJpjHa4Tg
Russian fuel crisis likely just the start as strikes threaten to tip Putin's economy into recession
YouTube video by Times Radio
youtu.be
October 7, 2025 at 11:11 AM
I spoke to Times Radio about the fuel crisis in Russia, the success of Ukrainian Deep Strike drones, sanctions and immobilised CBR assets, youtu.be/sbLJpjHa4Tg
Turkiye - Sept inflation print should be a wake up call. Mistakes were made. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Turkiye - inflation prints should be a wake up call
Central bank credibility is hard won but so easily lost
open.substack.com
October 4, 2025 at 5:32 AM
Turkiye - Sept inflation print should be a wake up call. Mistakes were made. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
The Ukraine was could be approaching a turning point. timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-in...
Ukraine - innovation and scale will determine the course of the war
Kyiv can win, with European support
timothyash.substack.com
October 3, 2025 at 1:20 PM
The Ukraine was could be approaching a turning point. timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-in...
Reposted
Having dragged out the war from giving Russia time to adapt, escalation management has increased the cost of the war, while the US has cut support. Good discussion here how in the EU, that is forcing the seized Central Bank of Russia assets issue to fund Ukraine's defense 👇🏼
My fools guide to the whole frozen Russian asset debate. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Frozen Russian assets - needs must
A fools guide
open.substack.com
October 2, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Having dragged out the war from giving Russia time to adapt, escalation management has increased the cost of the war, while the US has cut support. Good discussion here how in the EU, that is forcing the seized Central Bank of Russia assets issue to fund Ukraine's defense 👇🏼
Reposted
"If we do not fund Ukraine adequately it is at risk of losing this war...Imagine tens of millions of Ukrainians moving West, think then of the social, economic and political impact of that. Think then of the...need...for Europe to massively increase defence spending...immediately."
My fools guide to the whole frozen Russian asset debate. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Frozen Russian assets - needs must
A fools guide
open.substack.com
October 3, 2025 at 2:24 AM
"If we do not fund Ukraine adequately it is at risk of losing this war...Imagine tens of millions of Ukrainians moving West, think then of the social, economic and political impact of that. Think then of the...need...for Europe to massively increase defence spending...immediately."
Reposted
"What has been happening is that Western politicians have in effect been prioritising the defence of Russian tax payer assets at the expense of their own tax payer dollars, euros or pounds. This should be an absolute scandal."
My fools guide to the whole frozen Russian asset debate. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Frozen Russian assets - needs must
A fools guide
open.substack.com
October 3, 2025 at 5:44 AM
"What has been happening is that Western politicians have in effect been prioritising the defence of Russian tax payer assets at the expense of their own tax payer dollars, euros or pounds. This should be an absolute scandal."
My fools guide to the whole frozen Russian asset debate. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Frozen Russian assets - needs must
A fools guide
open.substack.com
October 2, 2025 at 1:35 PM
My fools guide to the whole frozen Russian asset debate. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Ukraine is now the key to Europe’s defence, Europe needs to harness its defence tech innovation. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Ukraine is the key to Europe’s defence
Great opinion piece by Chrystia Freeland in the FT today.
open.substack.com
October 1, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Ukraine is now the key to Europe’s defence, Europe needs to harness its defence tech innovation. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
My thoughts on the Trump - Erdogan WH summit, open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Trump & Erdogan both win from WH meeting
Yesterday’s Turkiye - U.S.
open.substack.com
September 26, 2025 at 10:29 AM
My thoughts on the Trump - Erdogan WH summit, open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
U.S. pivots back to Latam, timothyash.substack.com/p/the-us-gri...
The US gringo returns to Latam
I am not a great conspiracy theory type, but I have been trying to think through Trump’s messaging on Ukraine, and actions elsewhere, and all that suggests to me that we are seeing a U.S.
timothyash.substack.com
September 25, 2025 at 12:43 PM
U.S. pivots back to Latam, timothyash.substack.com/p/the-us-gri...
Deciphering Trump’s UNGA speech, open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
UNGA - Trying to understand Trump
I think we are all now trying to make sense of Trump’s latest comments on Ukraine at the UNGA, see the BBC write up as below.
open.substack.com
September 24, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Deciphering Trump’s UNGA speech, open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
The IMF admitted their programme for Ukraine is undergunded by $65bn - Europe cannot write that cheque without resort to using immobilised CBR assets. timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-an...
Ukraine and the IMF - a reality cheque
Bloomberg is running a story suggesting that the IMF is now suggesting its $15.5bn four year EFF is now underfunded by $65 billion for the period to the end of the programme at the end of Q1 2027.
timothyash.substack.com
September 23, 2025 at 8:09 AM
The IMF admitted their programme for Ukraine is undergunded by $65bn - Europe cannot write that cheque without resort to using immobilised CBR assets. timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-an...
Russia is going to be made to pay! open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Russia is going to pay!
Finally!
open.substack.com
September 15, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Russia is going to be made to pay! open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
We are making progress in the push to seize CBR assets - youtu.be/bRU4xfE4onI?...
Europe makes moves to cripple Putin's finances | Tim Ash
YouTube video by Times Radio
youtu.be
September 13, 2025 at 8:24 AM
We are making progress in the push to seize CBR assets - youtu.be/bRU4xfE4onI?...
The IMF needs to plan for a long war scenario in Ukraine. Here is why and how. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Ukraine - the IMF should plan for a long war
Two things of note:
open.substack.com
September 11, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The IMF needs to plan for a long war scenario in Ukraine. Here is why and how. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Europe has no choice now but to seize CBR assets. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
CBR assets have to be seized for Ukraine
Europe has now run out of alternatives
open.substack.com
September 11, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Europe has no choice now but to seize CBR assets. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Ukraine - time is not on Europe’s side. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Ukraine - time is not on Europe’s side
A range of Ukraine related stuff to comment over this morning.
open.substack.com
September 10, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Ukraine - time is not on Europe’s side. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Trump and Putin are stalling, Europe failing while Ukrainuans die. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Putin & Trump are stalling, Europe failing, Ukrainians dying
Clear signals coming from both Moscow and Washington now in terms of the war in Ukraine.
open.substack.com
September 8, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Trump and Putin are stalling, Europe failing while Ukrainuans die. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Is Bosnia on the brink? Some implications for Europe. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Bosnia on the brink?
Is an unsuspecting Europe about to face another security crisis?
open.substack.com
September 5, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Is Bosnia on the brink? Some implications for Europe. open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
My Chatham House piece on the challenhes facing the Russian economy and the opportunities thet presents yo the West to tighten sanctiobs to screw Putin. www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/fort...
The ‘Fortress Russia’ economy has adapted well to pressure. But stagflation presents an opportunity for the West
Now could be the time to ratchet up sanctions pressure on Putin and change Moscow’s risk analysis of prolonging the war.
www.chathamhouse.org
September 5, 2025 at 9:38 AM
My Chatham House piece on the challenhes facing the Russian economy and the opportunities thet presents yo the West to tighten sanctiobs to screw Putin. www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/fort...
Ukraine - V is for Victory Bond, open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
Ukraine - V for Victory (bond)
The numbers just don’t add up for the IMF programme
open.substack.com
September 3, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Ukraine - V is for Victory Bond, open.substack.com/pub/timothya...