I'm teaching a seven-class seminar on challenges to European security cooperation. Any recommendations you'd add? It is kind of a public opinion-forward seminar, but that's because I also want them looking at quantitative stuff.

Here's what the current development version does. I just need to write a KPSS test (not hard) before update. I don't know how many people are clamoring for analyses of efficient market hypotheses and what-not.

I don't know how advisable this is, and I've never had to think about time series analyses (let alone unit root tests) until I moved to my current department. No matter, I've always found approximation and interpolation to be weird rituals w/ all the computing power we have now.

svmiller.com/sTSD/

Important Swedish lessons over the holidays

Preparing for an upcoming workshop in Amsterdam on a project about diversionary conflict in the U.S. This has long been one of those things that's tricky to assess. I'm not sure how well I'm doing toward that end, but it does seem like presidents are somewhat sensitive to the price of oil.

What the ol’ work commute looks like.

They don't prepare you for the little mysteries of leaving the U.S. for a country where English isn't the main language. For example: 1) what do you people call these things and 2) why can't I find them anywhere. You guys are gaslighting me and it's super not cool.

You will never have a Wikipedia entry this legendary. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorts_(...

Arguably the biggest culture shock moving here from the United States is how commonplace it is for restaurants to close for a week (or two or three) because the people who run it are on holiday (in Spain, no less). Completely alien concept in the U.S., especially for this industry.

Apparently y’all are burning up in the states. It got bone-chilling here in a matter of about two weeks.

Me showing up on polisky to network (tack, snälla, @profmusgrave.bsky.social )