Overall takeaway is that the outcome should worry the Riksbank and is a clear indication that the labour market is weak.

Inflation numbers out tomorrow will be more important, but it is clear that the Swedish economy needs more rate cuts.

The uptick in unemployment was unusually large and there is nothing that would warrant that kind of jump in January.

However, unemployment was likely underestimated in the fall due to many discouraged workers who now returned and the outcome in January was well in line with other indicators.

However, another worrying sign was that the number of temporary employed fell back in January.

Not much drama in the employment numbers.

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Very interesting, thanks!

I agree and it’s a bit at odds with the Beveridge curve framework as well where you have new vacancies and the unemployment rate at the same time but if you do a very simple optimal lead/lag you seem to end up with the six month lead for the macro variables.

Yes, the unemployment rate and the employment growth, the variables that most people care about. In a strict sense, new vacancies are of course a big part of the labor market so that was perhaps a bit unclear.

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