I’ve been there and done the same.

Bsky, as I saw it, got so branded as “Democrats are going there” that it became a place of “big politics takes” rather than a neutral mix of topics, including science. Less science discussion for the sake of science. So I’ve avoided it more than I did Twitter. Not a like for like replacement.

Last week, I was trying to figure out how close TCs had to get for Fujiwara to take place and ran across this image. I'm glad you made your plot to help put this plot in context, though. (Seems 500mi is a rough guide, but will depend on context.)

Oh, I know about training data. Suffice it to say that for now the HAFS still has something to say that AI doesn't for intensity.

Looks like I may have gotten the invest wrong. 94L. oops.

In this solution, the TC doesn't strengthen because the shear is displacing the rain to the north. But the divergence in that area keeps that convective area strong as the storm approaches the coast.