Space Weather Watch
@spacewxwatch.bsky.social
Aurora forecasts and solar physics updates by a space weather physicist working at NASA. Opinions may not represent official gov’t forecasts.
https://linktr.ee/spacewxwatch
https://linktr.ee/spacewxwatch
Monday PM/Tue AM US forecast: Red line shows Kp=7 oval. Clouds high in NE/Midwest; better in West/North. Storm hits ~18:00Z Mon (ET daytime). "Show me" event—may underperform models. Visibility limited by clouds. Check our site for updates!
August 31, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Monday PM/Tue AM US forecast: Red line shows Kp=7 oval. Clouds high in NE/Midwest; better in West/North. Storm hits ~18:00Z Mon (ET daytime). "Show me" event—may underperform models. Visibility limited by clouds. Check our site for updates!
Where to see auroras: G3-G4 storm could light up Alaska, N. Canada, Iceland, Scandinavia, N. US states (WA, ID, MT, Dakotas, MN, WI, MI, ME). Southern Hemisphere: NZ, Tasmania, S. Australia. Look N horizon under clear skies. Track Kp on NOAA site. Possible live YouTube coverage!
August 31, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Where to see auroras: G3-G4 storm could light up Alaska, N. Canada, Iceland, Scandinavia, N. US states (WA, ID, MT, Dakotas, MN, WI, MI, ME). Southern Hemisphere: NZ, Tasmania, S. Australia. Look N horizon under clear skies. Track Kp on NOAA site. Possible live YouTube coverage!
Side view from NASA's STEREO-A shows good Earth alignment in the ecliptic plane. High confidence of impact, but storm intensity uncertain. Models predict Kp 7-9 (strong-extreme), but NOAA & I think it'll be milder: Kp=6 Sep 1, Kp=7 Sep 2. Manage expectations!
August 31, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Side view from NASA's STEREO-A shows good Earth alignment in the ecliptic plane. High confidence of impact, but storm intensity uncertain. Models predict Kp 7-9 (strong-extreme), but NOAA & I think it'll be milder: Kp=6 Sep 1, Kp=7 Sep 2. Manage expectations!
Cloud wise, low clouds will likely be present over the Great Lakes region and Northeast with high clouds generally present over the Pacific Northwest. Your best shot looks to be the upper Midwest.
Follow us for the latest forecast updates and space weather alerts!
Follow us for the latest forecast updates and space weather alerts!
April 13, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Cloud wise, low clouds will likely be present over the Great Lakes region and Northeast with high clouds generally present over the Pacific Northwest. Your best shot looks to be the upper Midwest.
Follow us for the latest forecast updates and space weather alerts!
Follow us for the latest forecast updates and space weather alerts!
Arrival of one or more of these events seems likely during the second half of the day on Tuesday the 15th, but storm intensity is very uncertain. Here's where aurora visibility could make it down to Tuesday evening if we see an arrival of one or more CMEs that lead to moderate geomagnetic storms.
April 13, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Arrival of one or more of these events seems likely during the second half of the day on Tuesday the 15th, but storm intensity is very uncertain. Here's where aurora visibility could make it down to Tuesday evening if we see an arrival of one or more CMEs that lead to moderate geomagnetic storms.
With magnetic field already enhanced above 10 nT, it could potentially be a great night for aurora, especially when wind speeds start to pick up a bit.
March 25, 2025 at 11:50 PM
With magnetic field already enhanced above 10 nT, it could potentially be a great night for aurora, especially when wind speeds start to pick up a bit.
As the fast CH HSS overtakes the slower ambient solar wind, plasma and magnetic fields are compressed at the leading edge. The compression leads to a pileup of solar wind plasma, causing an increase in density--a good sign the high speed stream will be following shortly after this region.
March 25, 2025 at 11:50 PM
As the fast CH HSS overtakes the slower ambient solar wind, plasma and magnetic fields are compressed at the leading edge. The compression leads to a pileup of solar wind plasma, causing an increase in density--a good sign the high speed stream will be following shortly after this region.
A coronal hole high speed stream (abbreviated CH HSS) typically has a velocity of 500–800 km/s, whereas the slow solar wind ahead of it moves at 300–400 km/s. This speed difference causes compression when the fast wind catches up to the slow wind.
March 25, 2025 at 11:50 PM
A coronal hole high speed stream (abbreviated CH HSS) typically has a velocity of 500–800 km/s, whereas the slow solar wind ahead of it moves at 300–400 km/s. This speed difference causes compression when the fast wind catches up to the slow wind.
(This will hit hard if you were a 90s baby or a parent of one)
March 25, 2025 at 4:12 AM
(This will hit hard if you were a 90s baby or a parent of one)