Space Weather Watch
@spacewxwatch.bsky.social
Aurora forecasts and solar physics updates by a space weather physicist working at NASA. Opinions may not represent official gov’t forecasts.
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October 12, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Think you can forecast space weather better? Our brand is for sale! You'll receive access to our X, Facebook, Instagram, Etsy, YouTube, Bluesky, Threads, Patreon, and be in our control of our email and website, too.
Official inquires only, please.
admin@spacewxwatch.com
Official inquires only, please.
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Monday PM/Tue AM US forecast: Red line shows Kp=7 oval. Clouds high in NE/Midwest; better in West/North. Storm hits ~18:00Z Mon (ET daytime). "Show me" event—may underperform models. Visibility limited by clouds. Check our site for updates!
August 31, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Monday PM/Tue AM US forecast: Red line shows Kp=7 oval. Clouds high in NE/Midwest; better in West/North. Storm hits ~18:00Z Mon (ET daytime). "Show me" event—may underperform models. Visibility limited by clouds. Check our site for updates!
Strong M8-class flare occurring now, initating a very large-scale eruption on the Earth-facing solar disk which is at least likely partially Earth-directed. A full halo CME is expected.
May 31, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Strong M8-class flare occurring now, initating a very large-scale eruption on the Earth-facing solar disk which is at least likely partially Earth-directed. A full halo CME is expected.
TONIGHT'S AURORA/CLOUD FORECAST:
May 29, 2025 at 2:40 AM
TONIGHT'S AURORA/CLOUD FORECAST:
X1.1-class flare solar flare occurring now
May 25, 2025 at 2:03 AM
X1.1-class flare solar flare occurring now
Incredible eruption associated with today's X1.2-class flare off the western limb. Imagery of the solar storm is still coming in, but expecting it to look like a partial halo. The storm itself will probably miss Earth, but energetic particles are currently streaming towards Earth
May 13, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Incredible eruption associated with today's X1.2-class flare off the western limb. Imagery of the solar storm is still coming in, but expecting it to look like a partial halo. The storm itself will probably miss Earth, but energetic particles are currently streaming towards Earth
AURORA/CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT:
A significant CME has arrived and geomagnetic effects are likely this evening. We may choose to move our auroral line farther south this PM, so stay tuned to our page for details. The red line represents southern extent of aurora visibility on the northern horizon.
A significant CME has arrived and geomagnetic effects are likely this evening. We may choose to move our auroral line farther south this PM, so stay tuned to our page for details. The red line represents southern extent of aurora visibility on the northern horizon.
April 15, 2025 at 6:40 PM
AURORA/CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT:
A significant CME has arrived and geomagnetic effects are likely this evening. We may choose to move our auroral line farther south this PM, so stay tuned to our page for details. The red line represents southern extent of aurora visibility on the northern horizon.
A significant CME has arrived and geomagnetic effects are likely this evening. We may choose to move our auroral line farther south this PM, so stay tuned to our page for details. The red line represents southern extent of aurora visibility on the northern horizon.
A strong interplanetary shock (solar storm) arrival near Earth is now ongoing, per ACE/DSCOVR satellites. Moderate to strong geomagnetic storms possible this evening
April 15, 2025 at 5:12 PM
A strong interplanetary shock (solar storm) arrival near Earth is now ongoing, per ACE/DSCOVR satellites. Moderate to strong geomagnetic storms possible this evening
Cloud wise, low clouds will likely be present over the Great Lakes region and Northeast with high clouds generally present over the Pacific Northwest. Your best shot looks to be the upper Midwest.
Follow us for the latest forecast updates and space weather alerts!
Follow us for the latest forecast updates and space weather alerts!
April 13, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Cloud wise, low clouds will likely be present over the Great Lakes region and Northeast with high clouds generally present over the Pacific Northwest. Your best shot looks to be the upper Midwest.
Follow us for the latest forecast updates and space weather alerts!
Follow us for the latest forecast updates and space weather alerts!
Arrival of one or more of these events seems likely during the second half of the day on Tuesday the 15th, but storm intensity is very uncertain. Here's where aurora visibility could make it down to Tuesday evening if we see an arrival of one or more CMEs that lead to moderate geomagnetic storms.
April 13, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Arrival of one or more of these events seems likely during the second half of the day on Tuesday the 15th, but storm intensity is very uncertain. Here's where aurora visibility could make it down to Tuesday evening if we see an arrival of one or more CMEs that lead to moderate geomagnetic storms.
TUESDAY NIGHT (4/15) AURORA FORECAST: A pair of filament eruptions occurred today on the Earth-facing disk, both of which may potentially be Earth-directed. The first appears to be more Earth-directed in EUV imagery, but the second appears to have a wider extent, indicating likely Earth-directedness
April 13, 2025 at 9:29 PM
TUESDAY NIGHT (4/15) AURORA FORECAST: A pair of filament eruptions occurred today on the Earth-facing disk, both of which may potentially be Earth-directed. The first appears to be more Earth-directed in EUV imagery, but the second appears to have a wider extent, indicating likely Earth-directedness
A gigantic eruption occurred today, and it was one of the significant eruptions in recent memory. I think it's safe to say that we dodged an extreme geomagnetic storm here.
If all of the power in today's eruption could be harnessed, it would probably power all of humanity for over 100 billion years
If all of the power in today's eruption could be harnessed, it would probably power all of humanity for over 100 billion years
March 28, 2025 at 10:23 PM
A gigantic eruption occurred today, and it was one of the significant eruptions in recent memory. I think it's safe to say that we dodged an extreme geomagnetic storm here.
If all of the power in today's eruption could be harnessed, it would probably power all of humanity for over 100 billion years
If all of the power in today's eruption could be harnessed, it would probably power all of humanity for over 100 billion years
TONIGHT: We're seeing the pileup out ahead of our anticipated coronal hole high speed stream.
March 25, 2025 at 11:50 PM
TONIGHT: We're seeing the pileup out ahead of our anticipated coronal hole high speed stream.
Moderate geomagnetic storms expected later in the Zulu day as Earth connects to this high speed stream, potentially lasting 2 days or more. Yep yep yep.
March 25, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Moderate geomagnetic storms expected later in the Zulu day as Earth connects to this high speed stream, potentially lasting 2 days or more. Yep yep yep.
(4/5) Meanwhile, a very large coronal hole structure is about 2.5 to 3 days out from being geoeffective; Tuesday the 25th could bring about moderate geomagnetic storms.
March 23, 2025 at 1:23 AM
(4/5) Meanwhile, a very large coronal hole structure is about 2.5 to 3 days out from being geoeffective; Tuesday the 25th could bring about moderate geomagnetic storms.
(2/5) Particles at ACE which can sometimes be used as a diagnostic for a CME arrival to come are on a decreasing trend, signaling not much is on the horizon in the next few hours, most likely.
March 23, 2025 at 1:23 AM
(2/5) Particles at ACE which can sometimes be used as a diagnostic for a CME arrival to come are on a decreasing trend, signaling not much is on the horizon in the next few hours, most likely.
(1/5) March 22 09:15pm ET:
The solar wind is a bit enhanced still from yesterday's CME arrival, but magnetic field is rather low and stable and solar wind velocities are less than 500 km/s.
The solar wind is a bit enhanced still from yesterday's CME arrival, but magnetic field is rather low and stable and solar wind velocities are less than 500 km/s.
March 23, 2025 at 1:23 AM
(1/5) March 22 09:15pm ET:
The solar wind is a bit enhanced still from yesterday's CME arrival, but magnetic field is rather low and stable and solar wind velocities are less than 500 km/s.
The solar wind is a bit enhanced still from yesterday's CME arrival, but magnetic field is rather low and stable and solar wind velocities are less than 500 km/s.
That is a very large coronal hole--a patch of open magnetic field lines on the Sun which stream out fast solar wind known as a "high speed stream".
Effects from it could start at Earth as soon as late on March 24th and will probably persist for two days or more.
#spacewx
Effects from it could start at Earth as soon as late on March 24th and will probably persist for two days or more.
#spacewx
March 21, 2025 at 9:20 PM
That is a very large coronal hole--a patch of open magnetic field lines on the Sun which stream out fast solar wind known as a "high speed stream".
Effects from it could start at Earth as soon as late on March 24th and will probably persist for two days or more.
#spacewx
Effects from it could start at Earth as soon as late on March 24th and will probably persist for two days or more.
#spacewx
CME ARRIVAL: Minor to moderate (Kp=5-6) geomagnetic storms likely this evening with strong storming possible (Kp=7) as a strong magnetic field enhancement is observed at solar wind spacecraft at ACE/DSCOVR following the passage of a solar coronal mass ejection
March 21, 2025 at 6:26 PM
CME ARRIVAL: Minor to moderate (Kp=5-6) geomagnetic storms likely this evening with strong storming possible (Kp=7) as a strong magnetic field enhancement is observed at solar wind spacecraft at ACE/DSCOVR following the passage of a solar coronal mass ejection
Coronal hole of the year now rotating into view...
March 20, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Coronal hole of the year now rotating into view...
We're still awaiting a CME arrival during the second half of tomorrow, but meanwhile, some disturbance is passing by the near-Earth environment... folks in Canada and the northern fringes of the U.S. could be in for aurora views tonight, potentially... let us know if you see anything?
March 19, 2025 at 2:17 AM
We're still awaiting a CME arrival during the second half of tomorrow, but meanwhile, some disturbance is passing by the near-Earth environment... folks in Canada and the northern fringes of the U.S. could be in for aurora views tonight, potentially... let us know if you see anything?
LIKELY EARTH DIRECTED SOLAR STORM THIS EVENING:
You can see a solar storm, or coronal mass ejection (CME) being ejected to the north and east (up and left) in before and after views tonight from NASA’s Stereo Ahead spacecraft, which is about 30 degrees upstream of the Earth-Sun line.
You can see a solar storm, or coronal mass ejection (CME) being ejected to the north and east (up and left) in before and after views tonight from NASA’s Stereo Ahead spacecraft, which is about 30 degrees upstream of the Earth-Sun line.
March 17, 2025 at 2:53 AM
LIKELY EARTH DIRECTED SOLAR STORM THIS EVENING:
You can see a solar storm, or coronal mass ejection (CME) being ejected to the north and east (up and left) in before and after views tonight from NASA’s Stereo Ahead spacecraft, which is about 30 degrees upstream of the Earth-Sun line.
You can see a solar storm, or coronal mass ejection (CME) being ejected to the north and east (up and left) in before and after views tonight from NASA’s Stereo Ahead spacecraft, which is about 30 degrees upstream of the Earth-Sun line.
