Ethan
@soloquail.bsky.social
Water and Planning, politics and mma, sci-fi and fantasy
Wait. Cutting now is a soft landing strategy. If a soft landing is no longer an option then the answer is to wait until recession is obvious. At that point the stock/ai/crypto speculation will have been curtailed and cutting rates will be stimulating instead of accelerating.
November 20, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Wait. Cutting now is a soft landing strategy. If a soft landing is no longer an option then the answer is to wait until recession is obvious. At that point the stock/ai/crypto speculation will have been curtailed and cutting rates will be stimulating instead of accelerating.
Seems like a good example of @joshtpm.bsky.social ‘s “all power is unitary” thesis. As Trumps power and popularity are linked, as one wanes, so does the other.
November 20, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Seems like a good example of @joshtpm.bsky.social ‘s “all power is unitary” thesis. As Trumps power and popularity are linked, as one wanes, so does the other.
More Clinton 2008 than anything right now. He is the establishment candidate which means he likely won’t get through the severe anti-establishment primary.
November 16, 2025 at 5:30 PM
More Clinton 2008 than anything right now. He is the establishment candidate which means he likely won’t get through the severe anti-establishment primary.
I feel like I’m in bizarro land where the dems position only get stronger as open enrollment gets closer. GOP basically needs this to be resolved within the next month.
October 4, 2025 at 1:29 AM
I feel like I’m in bizarro land where the dems position only get stronger as open enrollment gets closer. GOP basically needs this to be resolved within the next month.
The only people I personally know who lost their jobs recently are in tech... software engineers, back room, marketing, etc.
October 1, 2025 at 8:57 PM
The only people I personally know who lost their jobs recently are in tech... software engineers, back room, marketing, etc.
How predictive are big picture measures of stock expensiveness on the start of a recession? Like Shiller PE for the SP500 or the buffet indicator.
October 1, 2025 at 7:57 PM
How predictive are big picture measures of stock expensiveness on the start of a recession? Like Shiller PE for the SP500 or the buffet indicator.
Completely agree. They’re executing a plan right now. Disrupt it.
October 1, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Completely agree. They’re executing a plan right now. Disrupt it.
yes please to reform response
September 26, 2025 at 2:24 PM
yes please to reform response
So tech billionaires spend differently than all others because they have no unmet needs and are conditioned to embrace new tech? Why do we want AI again? We could... avoid Skynet? Avoid mass layoffs? Reduce wasted energy consumption? Watch tech billionaires lose some of their fortunes?
September 26, 2025 at 2:22 PM
So tech billionaires spend differently than all others because they have no unmet needs and are conditioned to embrace new tech? Why do we want AI again? We could... avoid Skynet? Avoid mass layoffs? Reduce wasted energy consumption? Watch tech billionaires lose some of their fortunes?
federal workers who took the buyout don't hit the jobless claims yet right? When should we expect a huge bump in the jobless claims?
September 25, 2025 at 5:50 PM
federal workers who took the buyout don't hit the jobless claims yet right? When should we expect a huge bump in the jobless claims?
One of your most thought provoking reviews. I’ve seen it half a dozen times growing up but never as an adult past 25 or so. I might try watching it again through this lens. Thank you for the insights.
September 25, 2025 at 6:11 AM
One of your most thought provoking reviews. I’ve seen it half a dozen times growing up but never as an adult past 25 or so. I might try watching it again through this lens. Thank you for the insights.
is it usually better to get out of the bubble well in advance or just ride it out? I ask as someone who mostly divested from AI heavy stocks in January and has missed out on 9 months of their rise.
September 24, 2025 at 9:09 PM
is it usually better to get out of the bubble well in advance or just ride it out? I ask as someone who mostly divested from AI heavy stocks in January and has missed out on 9 months of their rise.
People are severely discounting just how popular she would be during the campaign. Pretty obvious by now she’s a generational political talent and extremely charismatic. I’m firmly in the “run the popular person” camp.
September 19, 2025 at 4:42 PM
People are severely discounting just how popular she would be during the campaign. Pretty obvious by now she’s a generational political talent and extremely charismatic. I’m firmly in the “run the popular person” camp.
It feels both accurate (we have to live with each other) and extremely naive.
September 18, 2025 at 3:58 AM
It feels both accurate (we have to live with each other) and extremely naive.
Beef inflation is unreal. I paid $11.50/pound for ground beef at the grocery store over the weekend. It was grass fed, but it was the only type the store had which usually has ground chuck. And don't get me started on new baby clothes, WTF. $25 for a 5-pack of premie onesies???
September 17, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Beef inflation is unreal. I paid $11.50/pound for ground beef at the grocery store over the weekend. It was grass fed, but it was the only type the store had which usually has ground chuck. And don't get me started on new baby clothes, WTF. $25 for a 5-pack of premie onesies???
offloaded at a discount
September 10, 2025 at 10:19 PM
offloaded at a discount
I'm more interested in the luxuries for those trying to act rich - boats under $250k, Rolex watches, etc. If we start seeing them being offloaded, then we'll know the party's over.
September 10, 2025 at 10:18 PM
I'm more interested in the luxuries for those trying to act rich - boats under $250k, Rolex watches, etc. If we start seeing them being offloaded, then we'll know the party's over.
A damn good ad. I have a feeling he's gonna win. If he does, he's going to leap to the top of the 2028 talk.
September 9, 2025 at 7:27 PM
A damn good ad. I have a feeling he's gonna win. If he does, he's going to leap to the top of the 2028 talk.
I’m guessing it’ll show up in Novembers jobs report?
September 5, 2025 at 2:37 PM
I’m guessing it’ll show up in Novembers jobs report?
I wonder if he’ll have an Arlovski career arc. He’ll need to do one thing he hasn’t done in the past 7+ years, change his game.
August 31, 2025 at 12:11 AM
I wonder if he’ll have an Arlovski career arc. He’ll need to do one thing he hasn’t done in the past 7+ years, change his game.