Makoto Kelp
@soa-mazing.bsky.social
Incoming Asst Prof. UUtah | Postdoc Stanford | Harvard PhD ‘23 | Air Quality + Fires + Climate 🌎 | Machine Learning + Data Science 🖥️
Pinned
Makoto Kelp
@soa-mazing.bsky.social
· Sep 2
🚨I’m recruiting 1-2 PhD students for my Air Quality Data Science 🌐 group @utah.edu (start Fall ’26), working on multimodal machine learning applications for atmospheric chemistry (wildfires, ozone, dust). How to apply below. Please repost & ping me with recommendations!
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
Our new preprint proposes a framework for predicting summertime temperature jumps on 1-5 year timescales.
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
Machine learning predictions of summertime warming jumps on decadal timescales
eartharxiv.org
September 30, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Our new preprint proposes a framework for predicting summertime temperature jumps on 1-5 year timescales.
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
Excellent coverage of our study out today on climate impacts on wildfire smoke and related health impacts.
It's not your imagination: Wildfire smoke in the U.S. has dramatically worsened since 2019. According to a new study, it's already killing 41,000 people a year - and it's poised to get much worse.
new from me @johnmuyskens.bsky.social and @sadbumblebee.buzz
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
new from me @johnmuyskens.bsky.social and @sadbumblebee.buzz
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Record wildfire smoke kills more people each year than car crashes. It’s about to get worse.
The past six summers have been the smokiest on record. New research shows that smoke could become the costliest consequence of climate change for Americans.
www.washingtonpost.com
September 18, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Excellent coverage of our study out today on climate impacts on wildfire smoke and related health impacts.
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
We are excited to announce the release of the Environmental Hazard Adaptation Atlas, an effort to map ongoing and future environmental hazards and their impacts on society, and to provide up to date evidence on what policies and interventions work to reduce impacts: adaptationatlas.org. Quick thread
Environmental Hazard Adaptation Atlas | ECHO Lab | Stanford University
Studying the impacts of environmental change on human health and well-being
adaptationatlas.org
September 16, 2025 at 4:49 PM
We are excited to announce the release of the Environmental Hazard Adaptation Atlas, an effort to map ongoing and future environmental hazards and their impacts on society, and to provide up to date evidence on what policies and interventions work to reduce impacts: adaptationatlas.org. Quick thread
🚨I’m recruiting 1-2 PhD students for my Air Quality Data Science 🌐 group @utah.edu (start Fall ’26), working on multimodal machine learning applications for atmospheric chemistry (wildfires, ozone, dust). How to apply below. Please repost & ping me with recommendations!
September 2, 2025 at 6:58 PM
🚨I’m recruiting 1-2 PhD students for my Air Quality Data Science 🌐 group @utah.edu (start Fall ’26), working on multimodal machine learning applications for atmospheric chemistry (wildfires, ozone, dust). How to apply below. Please repost & ping me with recommendations!
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
What if companies disclosed climate risk the same way insurers analyze it: with event-based probabilistic models that show what could happen, when, and with what likelihood?
Check out our new paper in Environmental Research: Climate to learn more!
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Check out our new paper in Environmental Research: Climate to learn more!
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
August 25, 2025 at 5:04 PM
What if companies disclosed climate risk the same way insurers analyze it: with event-based probabilistic models that show what could happen, when, and with what likelihood?
Check out our new paper in Environmental Research: Climate to learn more!
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Check out our new paper in Environmental Research: Climate to learn more!
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
Starting today I am an assistant professor at Indiana University in the School of Public & Environmental Affairs. Reach out if you want to work together, especially if you are a prospective PhD student or postdoc!
August 1, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Starting today I am an assistant professor at Indiana University in the School of Public & Environmental Affairs. Reach out if you want to work together, especially if you are a prospective PhD student or postdoc!
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
Does prescribed burning reduce overall smoke from wildfire? We have 2 new papers that try to quantify. Answer: each acre Rx burned yields ≥3x more reduction in future wildfire smoke than is emitted in the Rx burn. But can take years to realize benefits.
www.stanfordecholab.com/blog/prescri...
www.stanfordecholab.com/blog/prescri...
smoke impacts of prescribed burning — ECHO: Environmental Change and Human Outcomes Lab | Stanford University
Yes, it almost certainly does, but benefits in terms of net smoke reductions take a few years to be realized. By: Marshall Burke Wildfire smoke is a rapidly growing environmental health haz...
www.stanfordecholab.com
July 15, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Does prescribed burning reduce overall smoke from wildfire? We have 2 new papers that try to quantify. Answer: each acre Rx burned yields ≥3x more reduction in future wildfire smoke than is emitted in the Rx burn. But can take years to realize benefits.
www.stanfordecholab.com/blog/prescri...
www.stanfordecholab.com/blog/prescri...
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
The Secretary of Commerce's new policy requiring his personal review of all NOAA contracts over $100,000 is directly harming American science. 🧪
How do I know? Because this morning, twelve of America's rising leaders in climate science (including myself) were furloughed.
How do I know? Because this morning, twelve of America's rising leaders in climate science (including myself) were furloughed.
July 7, 2025 at 2:46 PM
The Secretary of Commerce's new policy requiring his personal review of all NOAA contracts over $100,000 is directly harming American science. 🧪
How do I know? Because this morning, twelve of America's rising leaders in climate science (including myself) were furloughed.
How do I know? Because this morning, twelve of America's rising leaders in climate science (including myself) were furloughed.
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
New @harvard.edu research, along w/ Dr. @tinaliu.bsky.social, launches an online platform to help identify areas in need of controlled burns or other #wildfire management strategies, to increase safety and reduce smoke exposure. 🔥
More: seas.harvard.edu/news/2025/06...
@soa-mazing.bsky.social
More: seas.harvard.edu/news/2025/06...
@soa-mazing.bsky.social
Where There’s Fire, There’s Smoke
New app estimates health impacts of breathing smoke from wildfires
seas.harvard.edu
July 2, 2025 at 9:54 PM
New @harvard.edu research, along w/ Dr. @tinaliu.bsky.social, launches an online platform to help identify areas in need of controlled burns or other #wildfire management strategies, to increase safety and reduce smoke exposure. 🔥
More: seas.harvard.edu/news/2025/06...
@soa-mazing.bsky.social
More: seas.harvard.edu/news/2025/06...
@soa-mazing.bsky.social
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
🔥 Fighting fire with data
Better-targeted land management in just 3.5% of Northern California could have cut wildfire smoke exposure by 17.6% in 2020.
Researchers have now built a smoke risk index to guide future decisions.
🔗 pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...
#SciComm #Wildfires #AirQuality 🧪
Better-targeted land management in just 3.5% of Northern California could have cut wildfire smoke exposure by 17.6% in 2020.
Researchers have now built a smoke risk index to guide future decisions.
🔗 pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...
#SciComm #Wildfires #AirQuality 🧪
Managing Smoke Risk from Wildland Fires: Northern California as a Case Study
Smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from increasing wildfires in the western United States threatens public health. While land managers often prioritize reducing wildfire risk in the wildland-urban ...
pubs.acs.org
July 2, 2025 at 4:18 PM
🔥 Fighting fire with data
Better-targeted land management in just 3.5% of Northern California could have cut wildfire smoke exposure by 17.6% in 2020.
Researchers have now built a smoke risk index to guide future decisions.
🔗 pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...
#SciComm #Wildfires #AirQuality 🧪
Better-targeted land management in just 3.5% of Northern California could have cut wildfire smoke exposure by 17.6% in 2020.
Researchers have now built a smoke risk index to guide future decisions.
🔗 pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...
#SciComm #Wildfires #AirQuality 🧪
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
Happy to announce that Karina Chung's paper on wildfires, smoke risk, and land management in the western US is now published in ES&T! Karina started working on the project with us as a freshman at Harvard!
Paper: doi.org/10.1021/acs....
(Additional links in comments)
Paper: doi.org/10.1021/acs....
(Additional links in comments)
July 1, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Happy to announce that Karina Chung's paper on wildfires, smoke risk, and land management in the western US is now published in ES&T! Karina started working on the project with us as a freshman at Harvard!
Paper: doi.org/10.1021/acs....
(Additional links in comments)
Paper: doi.org/10.1021/acs....
(Additional links in comments)
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
Prescribed burns can reduce wildfire severity by 16% and smoke pollution by 14%, a Stanford study finds.
“The smoke is a silent and far-reaching hazard, and prescribed fire may be one of the few tools that actually reduces total smoke exposure.” - senior fellow Marshall Burke
🔗 bit.ly/4nlf1v9
“The smoke is a silent and far-reaching hazard, and prescribed fire may be one of the few tools that actually reduces total smoke exposure.” - senior fellow Marshall Burke
🔗 bit.ly/4nlf1v9
Study shows controlled burns can reduce wildfire intensity and smoke pollution
A new Stanford-led study finds that controlled, low-intensity fires known as prescribed burns can slash wildfire intensity and dangerous smoke pollution across the western United States.
bit.ly
June 26, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Prescribed burns can reduce wildfire severity by 16% and smoke pollution by 14%, a Stanford study finds.
“The smoke is a silent and far-reaching hazard, and prescribed fire may be one of the few tools that actually reduces total smoke exposure.” - senior fellow Marshall Burke
🔗 bit.ly/4nlf1v9
“The smoke is a silent and far-reaching hazard, and prescribed fire may be one of the few tools that actually reduces total smoke exposure.” - senior fellow Marshall Burke
🔗 bit.ly/4nlf1v9
Our new paper shows how recent prescribed (Rx) burns in the western US impacted later wildfires. We find that Rx fires reduced wildfire severity + net smoke emissions, even when factoring in smoke from Rx fires. But, we find that these Rx fires were less effective in the wildland-urban interface.
June 26, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Our new paper shows how recent prescribed (Rx) burns in the western US impacted later wildfires. We find that Rx fires reduced wildfire severity + net smoke emissions, even when factoring in smoke from Rx fires. But, we find that these Rx fires were less effective in the wildland-urban interface.
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
What happens to science under autocracy? The rise of the National Socialist Party in 1930s Germany provides an (admittedly extreme) example. Prior to the early 1930s, scientists at German institutions won a third of Nobels. 10 years later, that number was 5%, and has never recovered.
May 16, 2025 at 6:17 PM
What happens to science under autocracy? The rise of the National Socialist Party in 1930s Germany provides an (admittedly extreme) example. Prior to the early 1930s, scientists at German institutions won a third of Nobels. 10 years later, that number was 5%, and has never recovered.
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
An informative new tool to make risks from natural hazards visible and accessible - not just for scientists, but also for planners, emergency managers, and other professionals across disciplines.
Tool: experience.arcgis.com/experience/1...
Background story: news.climate.columbia.edu/2025/04/22/a...
Tool: experience.arcgis.com/experience/1...
Background story: news.climate.columbia.edu/2025/04/22/a...
April 23, 2025 at 3:01 PM
An informative new tool to make risks from natural hazards visible and accessible - not just for scientists, but also for planners, emergency managers, and other professionals across disciplines.
Tool: experience.arcgis.com/experience/1...
Background story: news.climate.columbia.edu/2025/04/22/a...
Tool: experience.arcgis.com/experience/1...
Background story: news.climate.columbia.edu/2025/04/22/a...
🚨Reminder: Due at the end of this month! Please apply and forward to graduating PhD students and early-career postdocs. We expect to give partial funding support for all accepted participants, and they are automatically enrolled in the Atmospheric Chemistry GRC, thanks!
This year's atmospheric chemistry GRC will be preceded by the first-ever atmospheric chemistry GRS for early-career scientists! I hope you (or your early career colleagues) will consider joining us in Maine this summer. Policies and application instructions here: www.grc.org/atmospheric-...
April 3, 2025 at 9:28 PM
🚨Reminder: Due at the end of this month! Please apply and forward to graduating PhD students and early-career postdocs. We expect to give partial funding support for all accepted participants, and they are automatically enrolled in the Atmospheric Chemistry GRC, thanks!
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
New paper by me and Noah Diffenbaugh on identifying predictable Pacific variability in the observational record 1/6 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Identifying a Pattern of Predictable Decadal North Pacific SST Variability in Historical Observations
A pattern of predictable sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific Ocean is identified by a neural network trained on CMIP6 models The neural network skillfully predicts the same p...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
March 4, 2025 at 6:06 PM
New paper by me and Noah Diffenbaugh on identifying predictable Pacific variability in the observational record 1/6 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
🚨Preprint alert: Led by Karina Chung (an undergrad!), we develop a wildfire smoke risk index that accounts for historical burned area, fuel consumption, and customized land management in Google Earth Engine 🌎 A useful tool to weigh risk-outcome scenarios 🔥
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
February 24, 2025 at 9:59 PM
🚨Preprint alert: Led by Karina Chung (an undergrad!), we develop a wildfire smoke risk index that accounts for historical burned area, fuel consumption, and customized land management in Google Earth Engine 🌎 A useful tool to weigh risk-outcome scenarios 🔥
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
This year's atmospheric chemistry GRC will be preceded by the first-ever atmospheric chemistry GRS for early-career scientists! I hope you (or your early career colleagues) will consider joining us in Maine this summer. Policies and application instructions here: www.grc.org/atmospheric-...
January 28, 2025 at 8:34 PM
This year's atmospheric chemistry GRC will be preceded by the first-ever atmospheric chemistry GRS for early-career scientists! I hope you (or your early career colleagues) will consider joining us in Maine this summer. Policies and application instructions here: www.grc.org/atmospheric-...
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
Atmospheric Chemistry colleagues! consider applying to attend this year's Atmospheric Chemistry GRC to join us in Maine and hear about the exciting advances in our field! See the link for more details: www.grc.org/atmospheric-...
2025 Atmospheric Chemistry Conference GRC
The 2025 Gordon Research Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry will be held in Newry, Maine. Apply today to reserve your spot.
www.grc.org
January 27, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Atmospheric Chemistry colleagues! consider applying to attend this year's Atmospheric Chemistry GRC to join us in Maine and hear about the exciting advances in our field! See the link for more details: www.grc.org/atmospheric-...
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
Need high resolution daily air pollution data for India? We've got you. Great new work led by Ayako Kawano developing satellite+ML-based measures of PM2.5 going back decades, and using it to evaluate recent progress in improving air quality. www.science.org/doi/full/10....
Improved daily PM2.5 estimates in India reveal inequalities in recent enhancement of air quality
Developed PM2.5 estimates unveiled inequalities in PM2.5 exposure, emphasizing need for equitable air quality control policies.
www.science.org
January 27, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Need high resolution daily air pollution data for India? We've got you. Great new work led by Ayako Kawano developing satellite+ML-based measures of PM2.5 going back decades, and using it to evaluate recent progress in improving air quality. www.science.org/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
Prescribed burning can reduce the severity and amount of smoke from wildfires that burn those areas later on, even when accounting for smoke from the prescribed burns themselves, according to new analysis of California’s record-breaking 2020 fire season from @soa-mazing.bsky.social etal. 🧪
Setting fire to a million acres of California could cut smoke by half
As California expands its prescribed burning efforts, a study of more than 180 such projects suggests they are an effective way to reduce a blaze's intensity and smoke
www.newscientist.com
January 24, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Prescribed burning can reduce the severity and amount of smoke from wildfires that burn those areas later on, even when accounting for smoke from the prescribed burns themselves, according to new analysis of California’s record-breaking 2020 fire season from @soa-mazing.bsky.social etal. 🧪
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
This article highlights some of our work over the last few years on NW India's agricultural fires, a seasonal and episodic source of regional air pollution. It was great to talk to Karishma Mehrotra at WaPo, and these anecdotes from farmers are especially important. #fires 🔥 #AirPollution 💨 #India
An Indian initiative to preserve vanishing groundwater by delaying the annual sowing of rice has led to a dramatic worsening of air pollution in New Delhi and the surrounding region.
How a change in rice farming unexpectedly made India’s air so much worse
No one anticipated that an initiative to save groundwater by delaying the annual rice season would aggravate northern India’s already miserable air pollution.
wapo.st
November 22, 2024 at 5:56 PM
This article highlights some of our work over the last few years on NW India's agricultural fires, a seasonal and episodic source of regional air pollution. It was great to talk to Karishma Mehrotra at WaPo, and these anecdotes from farmers are especially important. #fires 🔥 #AirPollution 💨 #India
Reposted by Makoto Kelp
Here's the atmospheric chemistry starter pack! Let me know if you'd like to join! Looking forward to hearing about everyone's fun science on bluesky!
go.bsky.app/GgmWgSo
go.bsky.app/GgmWgSo
November 13, 2024 at 11:57 AM
Here's the atmospheric chemistry starter pack! Let me know if you'd like to join! Looking forward to hearing about everyone's fun science on bluesky!
go.bsky.app/GgmWgSo
go.bsky.app/GgmWgSo