Michal Smetana
@smetanamichal.bsky.social
Associate Professor at Charles University | Director of the Peace Research Center Prague & the Experimental Lab for Int. Security Studies | PI of the ERC project MICROCODE | international security & politics | http://michalsmetana.academic.ws
1/2 Our new paper has just been published in
@ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.
@ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.
November 11, 2025 at 2:07 PM
1/2 Our new paper has just been published in
@ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.
@ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.
1/2 Our new paper (w/ @mvranka.bsky.social & @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social) on public support for nuclear arms control has just been published in @ejir.bsky.social (open access link to the full article is in the next post)
July 13, 2025 at 12:07 PM
1/2 Our new paper (w/ @mvranka.bsky.social & @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social) on public support for nuclear arms control has just been published in @ejir.bsky.social (open access link to the full article is in the next post)
The main outcome of our two-year Stanton Foundation project has now been accepted for publication in the European Journal of International Relations 🔥
@prcp.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz
@prcp.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz
June 11, 2025 at 7:48 AM
The main outcome of our two-year Stanton Foundation project has now been accepted for publication in the European Journal of International Relations 🔥
@prcp.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz
@prcp.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz
Join us at @apsa.bsky.social in Vancouver!
@mvranka.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social
@mvranka.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social
June 9, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Join us at @apsa.bsky.social in Vancouver!
@mvranka.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social
@mvranka.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social
1/2 🚨 New preprint alert 🚨 Together w/ @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social, we provide first experimental evidence on how public views on nuclear weapon use shape elite decision-making. Must read for scholars conducting nuclear nonuse experiments!
May 5, 2025 at 6:52 PM
1/2 🚨 New preprint alert 🚨 Together w/ @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social, we provide first experimental evidence on how public views on nuclear weapon use shape elite decision-making. Must read for scholars conducting nuclear nonuse experiments!
This is a good summary of what Putin’s proposal means
April 20, 2025 at 8:43 AM
This is a good summary of what Putin’s proposal means
Almost as if making major a priori concessions to the stronger party and bullying the weaker one is not the best mediation strategy you could go for 🤷♂️
April 18, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Almost as if making major a priori concessions to the stronger party and bullying the weaker one is not the best mediation strategy you could go for 🤷♂️
Pokud by Rusko napadlo Lotyšsko, jen přibližně polovina Čechů by souhlasila s tím bránit našeho spojence (naše čerstvá @erc.europa.eu MICROCODE data ve spolupráci s IPSOS)
@prcp.cuni.cz
@prcp.cuni.cz
April 17, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Pokud by Rusko napadlo Lotyšsko, jen přibližně polovina Čechů by souhlasila s tím bránit našeho spojence (naše čerstvá @erc.europa.eu MICROCODE data ve spolupráci s IPSOS)
@prcp.cuni.cz
@prcp.cuni.cz
The Kremlin could not have hoped for a better outcome in the last U.S. presidential elections. This Trump's statement comes shortly after the deadliest Russian strike on Ukrainian civilians this year.
April 15, 2025 at 2:57 PM
The Kremlin could not have hoped for a better outcome in the last U.S. presidential elections. This Trump's statement comes shortly after the deadliest Russian strike on Ukrainian civilians this year.
1/2 Our new paper w/ @profonderco.bsky.social has been published in the @journalofgss.bsky.social! We present findings from a large survey experiment in Russia, which investigated how public support for nuclear weapon use has changed after the invasion of Ukraine.
April 8, 2025 at 10:42 AM
1/2 Our new paper w/ @profonderco.bsky.social has been published in the @journalofgss.bsky.social! We present findings from a large survey experiment in Russia, which investigated how public support for nuclear weapon use has changed after the invasion of Ukraine.
6/9 The good news is that this does not necessarily apply to other NATO members. For example, the credibility of U.K. commitments has increased over time:
April 7, 2025 at 12:36 PM
6/9 The good news is that this does not necessarily apply to other NATO members. For example, the credibility of U.K. commitments has increased over time:
4/9 But looking at the March data, we can observe that the credibility of the U.S. commitments has been decreasing further: less than half of the population now believes that U.S. military assistance is likely in this scenario (5 percent point drop).
April 7, 2025 at 12:35 PM
4/9 But looking at the March data, we can observe that the credibility of the U.S. commitments has been decreasing further: less than half of the population now believes that U.S. military assistance is likely in this scenario (5 percent point drop).
3/9 As you can see in this figure, the January survey painted a bleak picture: only about half of respondents in our survey believed that it was likely that the U.S. would defend Latvia in the case of a war with Russia.
April 7, 2025 at 12:35 PM
3/9 As you can see in this figure, the January survey painted a bleak picture: only about half of respondents in our survey believed that it was likely that the U.S. would defend Latvia in the case of a war with Russia.
1/9 Do Russians perceive NATO's collective defense commitments as credible? A 🧵
April 7, 2025 at 12:34 PM
1/9 Do Russians perceive NATO's collective defense commitments as credible? A 🧵
1/2 Na @seznamzpravy.bsky.social vyšel článek o našem nejnovějším výzkumu v rámci @erc.europa.eu MICROCODE projektu :
April 2, 2025 at 2:58 PM
1/2 Na @seznamzpravy.bsky.social vyšel článek o našem nejnovějším výzkumu v rámci @erc.europa.eu MICROCODE projektu :
7/10 Overall, there is also a clear sense that the U.S. commitment to NATO as a whole has been significantly weakened.
March 27, 2025 at 1:32 PM
7/10 Overall, there is also a clear sense that the U.S. commitment to NATO as a whole has been significantly weakened.
6/10 As a result, the overall trust in NATO collective defense in general has visibly decreased but not as much as in the specific U.S. case.
March 27, 2025 at 1:32 PM
6/10 As a result, the overall trust in NATO collective defense in general has visibly decreased but not as much as in the specific U.S. case.
5/10 We do not see the same effect for other NATO allies; for example, the trust in the U.K.'s commitment to defending Latvia has increased rather than decreased.
March 27, 2025 at 1:31 PM
5/10 We do not see the same effect for other NATO allies; for example, the trust in the U.K.'s commitment to defending Latvia has increased rather than decreased.
4/10 As you can see in this figure, trust in the U.S. commitments took a big hit (especially in Canada). These are huge effects considering that the surveys were fielded only two months apart.
March 27, 2025 at 1:30 PM
4/10 As you can see in this figure, trust in the U.S. commitments took a big hit (especially in Canada). These are huge effects considering that the surveys were fielded only two months apart.
3/10 The 1st survey wave was fielded in January 2025 before Trump's inauguration, the 2nd follow-up survey (with the same respondents) in March 2025. The key question in the survey concerned a scenario of a Russian invasion of one of the Baltic states on NATO’s eastern flank.
March 27, 2025 at 1:29 PM
3/10 The 1st survey wave was fielded in January 2025 before Trump's inauguration, the 2nd follow-up survey (with the same respondents) in March 2025. The key question in the survey concerned a scenario of a Russian invasion of one of the Baltic states on NATO’s eastern flank.
2/10 As a part of our @erc.europa.eu MICROCODE project, we have recently started collecting survey data for a longitudinal study of views on collective defense in five NATO countries (US, UK, FR, DE, PL) and Russia.
March 27, 2025 at 1:27 PM
2/10 As a part of our @erc.europa.eu MICROCODE project, we have recently started collecting survey data for a longitudinal study of views on collective defense in five NATO countries (US, UK, FR, DE, PL) and Russia.
1/10 Has Trump's foreign policy already damaged the perceptions of NATO's credibility? A 🧵
March 27, 2025 at 1:27 PM
1/10 Has Trump's foreign policy already damaged the perceptions of NATO's credibility? A 🧵
Significantly revised preprint for our paper on public support for nuclear arms control w/ @mvranka.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social @prcp.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
March 25, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Significantly revised preprint for our paper on public support for nuclear arms control w/ @mvranka.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social @prcp.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Glad to see our work w/ @ProfOnderco & Tom Etienne found its readers! :)
March 19, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Glad to see our work w/ @ProfOnderco & Tom Etienne found its readers! :)
My article on domestic audience costs with experimental evidence from Russia has been published in the new issue of JPR (open access)
March 18, 2025 at 12:44 PM
My article on domestic audience costs with experimental evidence from Russia has been published in the new issue of JPR (open access)