sinha1.bsky.social
@sinha1.bsky.social
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
The Household Squeeze
Households are facing slowing income growth and rising inflation, a combination which is likely to keep real demand weak right at a point when growth expectations are at highs.
Households are facing slowing income growth and rising inflation, a combination which is likely to keep real demand weak right at a point when growth expectations are at highs.
August 1, 2025 at 12:09 PM
The Household Squeeze
Households are facing slowing income growth and rising inflation, a combination which is likely to keep real demand weak right at a point when growth expectations are at highs.
Households are facing slowing income growth and rising inflation, a combination which is likely to keep real demand weak right at a point when growth expectations are at highs.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
Tariffs are throwing a 40bln bucket of cold water per month on the "Run It Hot" thesis, even at current levels. More from my recent convo on CNBC Overtime with Jon Fortt.
youtu.be/Z8z48ngfF5I?...
youtu.be/Z8z48ngfF5I?...
Markets might get surprised if the tariff conflict continues, says Unlimited's Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott, Unlimited CEO and Victoria Greene, G Squared Private Wealth CIO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
youtu.be
June 1, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Tariffs are throwing a 40bln bucket of cold water per month on the "Run It Hot" thesis, even at current levels. More from my recent convo on CNBC Overtime with Jon Fortt.
youtu.be/Z8z48ngfF5I?...
youtu.be/Z8z48ngfF5I?...
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
The Chinese economy is hanging in there even with the heightened US trade war.
Even as US pressure ratcheted up, hard economic measures across production, demand, investment and housing aren't showing signs of much stress.
Thread.
Even as US pressure ratcheted up, hard economic measures across production, demand, investment and housing aren't showing signs of much stress.
Thread.
May 20, 2025 at 11:00 AM
The Chinese economy is hanging in there even with the heightened US trade war.
Even as US pressure ratcheted up, hard economic measures across production, demand, investment and housing aren't showing signs of much stress.
Thread.
Even as US pressure ratcheted up, hard economic measures across production, demand, investment and housing aren't showing signs of much stress.
Thread.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
A bid for stocks here is a bet on extraordinarily strong growth ahead, just as timely measures are indicating a pretty clear slowing as the Embargo starts to gum up the economy.
May 3, 2025 at 5:13 PM
A bid for stocks here is a bet on extraordinarily strong growth ahead, just as timely measures are indicating a pretty clear slowing as the Embargo starts to gum up the economy.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
While the stock market is priced like the last month was just a fever dream, the reality is the current tariffs are still 20pts higher than where they were a month ago, there is an effective embargo on Chinese imports, and no trade deals are on the horizon.
youtu.be/I4m28s4F7PM?...
youtu.be/I4m28s4F7PM?...
This market is the product of sentiment, says The Kobeissi Letter's Adam Kobeissi
Bob Elliott, Unlimited CEO and Adam Kobeissi, The Kobeissi Letter editor-in-chief, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss market rally, their outlook for s...
youtu.be
May 4, 2025 at 10:06 AM
While the stock market is priced like the last month was just a fever dream, the reality is the current tariffs are still 20pts higher than where they were a month ago, there is an effective embargo on Chinese imports, and no trade deals are on the horizon.
youtu.be/I4m28s4F7PM?...
youtu.be/I4m28s4F7PM?...
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
Despite all the noise this week, it seems the Embargo remains firmly in place.
For businesses across the US, it's "Iceberg, right ahead."
For businesses across the US, it's "Iceberg, right ahead."
April 24, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Despite all the noise this week, it seems the Embargo remains firmly in place.
For businesses across the US, it's "Iceberg, right ahead."
For businesses across the US, it's "Iceberg, right ahead."
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
Trump's comments tonight make clear Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tipped a select group folks about the admin's planned policy shift toward China at a JP Morgan event last night.
Seems Bessent has forgotten that age old lesson about laying down with dogs.
Seems Bessent has forgotten that age old lesson about laying down with dogs.
April 22, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Trump's comments tonight make clear Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tipped a select group folks about the admin's planned policy shift toward China at a JP Morgan event last night.
Seems Bessent has forgotten that age old lesson about laying down with dogs.
Seems Bessent has forgotten that age old lesson about laying down with dogs.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
Gold at a record level and the DXY dollar index at its weakest in two years speak to more than the current period of uncertainty and volatility.
They also reflect the intensification of a worrisome multi-year process that I have written about many times — that is, the very…
1 of 2
They also reflect the intensification of a worrisome multi-year process that I have written about many times — that is, the very…
1 of 2
April 10, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Gold at a record level and the DXY dollar index at its weakest in two years speak to more than the current period of uncertainty and volatility.
They also reflect the intensification of a worrisome multi-year process that I have written about many times — that is, the very…
1 of 2
They also reflect the intensification of a worrisome multi-year process that I have written about many times — that is, the very…
1 of 2
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
The best part of my job is partnering with thoughtful advisors who are working to build robust portfolios for their clients. This convo gives some insight into just one of those many conversations.
"A View from the Street - Pro to Pro with Bob Elliott"
It was an absolute pleasure to host Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO at Unlimited Funds, on our most recent episode of "A View from the Street." In this episode, Mic...
youtu.be
March 23, 2025 at 10:06 AM
The best part of my job is partnering with thoughtful advisors who are working to build robust portfolios for their clients. This convo gives some insight into just one of those many conversations.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
While gold often looks like a risky asset in the day-to-day, there are important structural dynamics globally supporting medium term price appreciation.
The Challenges of Gold In Early 2025
Foreign central banks had been purchasing gold rather than holding dollars over the last few years. Towards the later part of 2024 retail investors followed...
youtu.be
March 14, 2025 at 3:11 PM
While gold often looks like a risky asset in the day-to-day, there are important structural dynamics globally supporting medium term price appreciation.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
The thing about delaying auto tariffs a month is that, guess what, you're still going to be dealing with the Canadian/Mexican response, and both have significant leverage. Also: delaying a month does nothing to solve the problem of totally integrated supply chains.
March 5, 2025 at 5:04 PM
The thing about delaying auto tariffs a month is that, guess what, you're still going to be dealing with the Canadian/Mexican response, and both have significant leverage. Also: delaying a month does nothing to solve the problem of totally integrated supply chains.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
It's an outrage that in the Cayman Islands I can incorporate a company without any proof of ID. I can put any old crap in the incorporation documents. Nobody checks.
Actually I fibbed. That's the UK. The Cayman Islands has had strict ID/verification rules for *years*.
Actually I fibbed. That's the UK. The Cayman Islands has had strict ID/verification rules for *years*.
February 13, 2025 at 1:47 PM
It's an outrage that in the Cayman Islands I can incorporate a company without any proof of ID. I can put any old crap in the incorporation documents. Nobody checks.
Actually I fibbed. That's the UK. The Cayman Islands has had strict ID/verification rules for *years*.
Actually I fibbed. That's the UK. The Cayman Islands has had strict ID/verification rules for *years*.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
While the US economy has significant momentum coming into the start of the new admin these efforts are likely to create a drag over the next 6-12m.
With growth only running at 2-3%, any further escalation of the trade war from these announced policies risks a material slowdown.
With growth only running at 2-3%, any further escalation of the trade war from these announced policies risks a material slowdown.
February 13, 2025 at 11:55 AM
While the US economy has significant momentum coming into the start of the new admin these efforts are likely to create a drag over the next 6-12m.
With growth only running at 2-3%, any further escalation of the trade war from these announced policies risks a material slowdown.
With growth only running at 2-3%, any further escalation of the trade war from these announced policies risks a material slowdown.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
Our monthly macro webinar is tomorrow at 1215pm ET. Sign up ahead to get your questions answered and hear our lively Q&A live (and not available on the YT video later).
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: What We Know So Far... After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
Only weeks into the new administration and we have equity market volatility, fluctuating bond yields and geopolitical tensions. What trends are emerging so far? Join Bob Elliott, Unlimited Funds CEO…
buff.ly
February 10, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Our monthly macro webinar is tomorrow at 1215pm ET. Sign up ahead to get your questions answered and hear our lively Q&A live (and not available on the YT video later).
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
Market expectations of future inflation are rising to highs just as underlying inflation momentum is slowing sharply.
Without a pretty extreme rise in tariffs, current medium-term expectations look too elevated.
Thread.
Without a pretty extreme rise in tariffs, current medium-term expectations look too elevated.
Thread.
February 11, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Market expectations of future inflation are rising to highs just as underlying inflation momentum is slowing sharply.
Without a pretty extreme rise in tariffs, current medium-term expectations look too elevated.
Thread.
Without a pretty extreme rise in tariffs, current medium-term expectations look too elevated.
Thread.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
The new admin suggestion they will follow through on 25% MEX & CAN tariffs created a ripple in markets late yesterday.
While the moves were modest, USD rallied, stocks and bonds sold off, and gold rose, giving some market-based direction on possible tariff impacts.
Thread.
While the moves were modest, USD rallied, stocks and bonds sold off, and gold rose, giving some market-based direction on possible tariff impacts.
Thread.
January 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM
The new admin suggestion they will follow through on 25% MEX & CAN tariffs created a ripple in markets late yesterday.
While the moves were modest, USD rallied, stocks and bonds sold off, and gold rose, giving some market-based direction on possible tariff impacts.
Thread.
While the moves were modest, USD rallied, stocks and bonds sold off, and gold rose, giving some market-based direction on possible tariff impacts.
Thread.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
"I never said Brexit would be easy" says politician who definitely said Brexit would be easy.
January 31, 2025 at 6:07 PM
"I never said Brexit would be easy" says politician who definitely said Brexit would be easy.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
The ECB has abandoned their inflation-only focus in favor of policy shifts pro-actively supporting growth, particularly for depressed Germany.
A big change in their decision making framework reinforced by their continued cuts given conditions.
Thread.
A big change in their decision making framework reinforced by their continued cuts given conditions.
Thread.
January 30, 2025 at 11:46 AM
The ECB has abandoned their inflation-only focus in favor of policy shifts pro-actively supporting growth, particularly for depressed Germany.
A big change in their decision making framework reinforced by their continued cuts given conditions.
Thread.
A big change in their decision making framework reinforced by their continued cuts given conditions.
Thread.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
A micro sign of equity market euphoria on growth prospects ahead.
January 30, 2025 at 6:11 PM
A micro sign of equity market euphoria on growth prospects ahead.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
Gold typically offers the best financial market hedge against geopolitical shocks.
January 20, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Gold typically offers the best financial market hedge against geopolitical shocks.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
Stocks and Bonds get more positively correlated as yields move toward 5%.
January 19, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Stocks and Bonds get more positively correlated as yields move toward 5%.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
THE HIDDEN HISTORY OF EURODOLLARS
*SPECIAL ODD LOTS SERIES*
@weisenthal.bsky.social & I are super excited to release of a special three-part series hosted by Josh Younger and Lev Menand diving deep into the history of the eurodollar market.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
*SPECIAL ODD LOTS SERIES*
@weisenthal.bsky.social & I are super excited to release of a special three-part series hosted by Josh Younger and Lev Menand diving deep into the history of the eurodollar market.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The Hidden History of Eurodollars, Part 1: Cold War Origins
Podcast Episode · Odd Lots · 01/14/2025 · 34m
podcasts.apple.com
January 14, 2025 at 1:05 PM
THE HIDDEN HISTORY OF EURODOLLARS
*SPECIAL ODD LOTS SERIES*
@weisenthal.bsky.social & I are super excited to release of a special three-part series hosted by Josh Younger and Lev Menand diving deep into the history of the eurodollar market.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
*SPECIAL ODD LOTS SERIES*
@weisenthal.bsky.social & I are super excited to release of a special three-part series hosted by Josh Younger and Lev Menand diving deep into the history of the eurodollar market.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
US inflation is stuck above the Fed's mandate, despite all the rhetoric and hope otherwise.
And a look across a broad set of inflation data suggests not much progress is being made in recent months and if anything signs of some upward pressures.
Thread.
And a look across a broad set of inflation data suggests not much progress is being made in recent months and if anything signs of some upward pressures.
Thread.
January 15, 2025 at 12:07 PM
US inflation is stuck above the Fed's mandate, despite all the rhetoric and hope otherwise.
And a look across a broad set of inflation data suggests not much progress is being made in recent months and if anything signs of some upward pressures.
Thread.
And a look across a broad set of inflation data suggests not much progress is being made in recent months and if anything signs of some upward pressures.
Thread.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
The rise in inflation expectations has drawn attention, but it looks to be driven by partisan views, not economic reality.
Corporate based expectations remain stable, and break-evens priced in the bond markets remains in the range of the last couple years.
Thread.
Corporate based expectations remain stable, and break-evens priced in the bond markets remains in the range of the last couple years.
Thread.
January 14, 2025 at 11:49 AM
The rise in inflation expectations has drawn attention, but it looks to be driven by partisan views, not economic reality.
Corporate based expectations remain stable, and break-evens priced in the bond markets remains in the range of the last couple years.
Thread.
Corporate based expectations remain stable, and break-evens priced in the bond markets remains in the range of the last couple years.
Thread.
Reposted by sinha1.bsky.social
The US economy just got 100bps of market-based tightening right at the time when expectations for the future reached exuberance.
Stocks plunge while yields climb, oil hits highest level since October
David Zervos, Jefferies Chief Market Strategist and Bob Elliott, Unlimited CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
buff.ly
January 11, 2025 at 12:04 PM
The US economy just got 100bps of market-based tightening right at the time when expectations for the future reached exuberance.