Simon Hix
@simonhix.bsky.social
Stein Rokkan Chair in Comparative Politics, EUI. President-Elect, @epssnet.bsky.social. FBA, FRSA. Democracy, parties, elections, electoral systems etc. Live music. COYI
Scenario 2: assume that some people who vote for parties who wouldn't win seats would switch to other parties (there are lots of ways to do this, and I picked a very simple one)
=> two three party majority coalitions would be possible: D66-CDA-VVD or D66-CDA-GLPvdA
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=> two three party majority coalitions would be possible: D66-CDA-VVD or D66-CDA-GLPvdA
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October 31, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Scenario 2: assume that some people who vote for parties who wouldn't win seats would switch to other parties (there are lots of ways to do this, and I picked a very simple one)
=> two three party majority coalitions would be possible: D66-CDA-VVD or D66-CDA-GLPvdA
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=> two three party majority coalitions would be possible: D66-CDA-VVD or D66-CDA-GLPvdA
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Scenario 1: take the actual election result and only allocate seats to the 7 parties who more than 4% or more of the votes
=> a three party coalition would be possible, between D66, CDA, and VVD
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=> a three party coalition would be possible, between D66, CDA, and VVD
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October 31, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Scenario 1: take the actual election result and only allocate seats to the 7 parties who more than 4% or more of the votes
=> a three party coalition would be possible, between D66, CDA, and VVD
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=> a three party coalition would be possible, between D66, CDA, and VVD
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Fascinating vote-switching patterns from NL2025 elections, e.g. app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2025/
October 30, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Fascinating vote-switching patterns from NL2025 elections, e.g. app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2025/
October 29, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Caamp in Milan. First date on their European tour. Amazing. Thank you guys.
October 17, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Caamp in Milan. First date on their European tour. Amazing. Thank you guys.
What better to way to spend a Friday PM than calculating ENPV in NL?
=>
1. Dutch voters have no problem coordinating in EP elections, where the effective threshold is 3.1% (100 / 31+1);
2. The party system would still be fragmented in the TK with a 4% threshold, but with fewer parties overall.
=>
1. Dutch voters have no problem coordinating in EP elections, where the effective threshold is 3.1% (100 / 31+1);
2. The party system would still be fragmented in the TK with a 4% threshold, but with fewer parties overall.
October 17, 2025 at 3:09 PM
What better to way to spend a Friday PM than calculating ENPV in NL?
=>
1. Dutch voters have no problem coordinating in EP elections, where the effective threshold is 3.1% (100 / 31+1);
2. The party system would still be fragmented in the TK with a 4% threshold, but with fewer parties overall.
=>
1. Dutch voters have no problem coordinating in EP elections, where the effective threshold is 3.1% (100 / 31+1);
2. The party system would still be fragmented in the TK with a 4% threshold, but with fewer parties overall.
Marina Hyde on scintillating form about the Royals:
October 17, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Marina Hyde on scintillating form about the Royals:
Fantastic piece by Simon Schama on the debate between the US Founding Fathers about freedom of speech (and the Alien and Sedition Acts), that includes this wonderful final exhortation to us all:
on.ft.com/48b6rKt
on.ft.com/48b6rKt
October 4, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Fantastic piece by Simon Schama on the debate between the US Founding Fathers about freedom of speech (and the Alien and Sedition Acts), that includes this wonderful final exhortation to us all:
on.ft.com/48b6rKt
on.ft.com/48b6rKt
There is hope in the world 😀
June 25, 2025 at 7:30 AM
There is hope in the world 😀
Yes, turnout mattered. But, the right coordinated to get their side to abstain if they disagreed with EITHER set of issues. So we don't know whether some might have supported Q1-4 and others Q5.
Nb. turnout was not particularly lower in the South or higher in the North, as Pau has pointed out.
Nb. turnout was not particularly lower in the South or higher in the North, as Pau has pointed out.
June 13, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Yes, turnout mattered. But, the right coordinated to get their side to abstain if they disagreed with EITHER set of issues. So we don't know whether some might have supported Q1-4 and others Q5.
Nb. turnout was not particularly lower in the South or higher in the North, as Pau has pointed out.
Nb. turnout was not particularly lower in the South or higher in the North, as Pau has pointed out.
Some places (e.g. Bolzano) was in the right-libertarian corner, others (e.g. Naples) were left-libertarian, while Florence/Bologna/Rome were more libertarian than left, and many smaller rural places where more authoritarian than left.
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June 13, 2025 at 6:49 AM
Some places (e.g. Bolzano) was in the right-libertarian corner, others (e.g. Naples) were left-libertarian, while Florence/Bologna/Rome were more libertarian than left, and many smaller rural places where more authoritarian than left.
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Meloni (FdI) and the other governing parties (FI, Lega) told their supporters to abstain. So, the right won and the left lost.
But, the %Yes across the provinces suggests a more nuanced story: some were more supportive of labour rights while others were more supportive of citizenship rights.
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But, the %Yes across the provinces suggests a more nuanced story: some were more supportive of labour rights while others were more supportive of citizenship rights.
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June 13, 2025 at 6:46 AM
Meloni (FdI) and the other governing parties (FI, Lega) told their supporters to abstain. So, the right won and the left lost.
But, the %Yes across the provinces suggests a more nuanced story: some were more supportive of labour rights while others were more supportive of citizenship rights.
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But, the %Yes across the provinces suggests a more nuanced story: some were more supportive of labour rights while others were more supportive of citizenship rights.
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And of those who voted in Firenze, almost 75% voted Si! Grazie fiorentini! ❤️ #ForzaViola
June 9, 2025 at 6:42 PM
And of those who voted in Firenze, almost 75% voted Si! Grazie fiorentini! ❤️ #ForzaViola
Interesting. And here is the same plot with "Radical Right" added, i.e. Radical Right and Far Right are far more common terms than "Hard Right"
June 4, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Interesting. And here is the same plot with "Radical Right" added, i.e. Radical Right and Far Right are far more common terms than "Hard Right"
A fabulous insight in Adam Przeworski’s latest substack. Would love to see if this could be tested somehow.
May 21, 2025 at 5:31 PM
A fabulous insight in Adam Przeworski’s latest substack. Would love to see if this could be tested somehow.
Then, we look at "European wide swings": whether some party families do better/worse in EP elections (controlling for their size and govt status). We find that greens, anti-Europeans and centre-right parties (!) outperform a second-order prediction, while socialists generally underperform
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May 19, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Then, we look at "European wide swings": whether some party families do better/worse in EP elections (controlling for their size and govt status). We find that greens, anti-Europeans and centre-right parties (!) outperform a second-order prediction, while socialists generally underperform
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That said, in line with the classic model, governing parties performed worse than opposition parties in about half of the member states in the 2024 elections:
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May 19, 2025 at 5:01 PM
That said, in line with the classic model, governing parties performed worse than opposition parties in about half of the member states in the 2024 elections:
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We look at the classic "second-order national election" model of party performance in the 2024 EP elections compared to all previous EP elections, e.g. this figure
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May 19, 2025 at 5:00 PM
We look at the classic "second-order national election" model of party performance in the 2024 EP elections compared to all previous EP elections, e.g. this figure
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Delighted that my paper with @kevincunning.bsky.social on "Still second-order national elections? Evaluating the classic model after the 2024 European elections" has just been published by @wepsocial.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140... 1/
doi.org/10.1080/0140... 1/
May 19, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Delighted that my paper with @kevincunning.bsky.social on "Still second-order national elections? Evaluating the classic model after the 2024 European elections" has just been published by @wepsocial.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140... 1/
doi.org/10.1080/0140... 1/
From the brilliant Adam Przeworski's latest substack diary. I share this same fear. Having seen how authoritarian leaders (e.g. Orban) manipulate "free and fair" elections, I think people are too complacent about the 2026 midterms.
May 14, 2025 at 9:31 AM
From the brilliant Adam Przeworski's latest substack diary. I share this same fear. Having seen how authoritarian leaders (e.g. Orban) manipulate "free and fair" elections, I think people are too complacent about the 2026 midterms.
@drjennings.bsky.social tells it like it is. A familiar picture in the UK:
May 2, 2025 at 2:28 PM
@drjennings.bsky.social tells it like it is. A familiar picture in the UK:
Tories squeezed: losing seats in the North and Midlands to Reform, and seats in the South and South West to the Lib Dems, eg.
May 2, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Tories squeezed: losing seats in the North and Midlands to Reform, and seats in the South and South West to the Lib Dems, eg.
@willjennings.bsky.social tells it like it is. A familiar picture in the UK:
May 2, 2025 at 2:13 PM
@willjennings.bsky.social tells it like it is. A familiar picture in the UK:
Tariffs are a tax on consumers, and fall more heavily on lower income households. If Trump uses these to fund tax cuts for the wealthy, this will be a massively regressive redistribution of wealth.
April 3, 2025 at 5:23 AM
Tariffs are a tax on consumers, and fall more heavily on lower income households. If Trump uses these to fund tax cuts for the wealthy, this will be a massively regressive redistribution of wealth.