Shelley Clark
@shelleydclark.bsky.social
James McGill Professor of Sociology, McGill University. A demographer whose research focuses on gender, health, family dynamics, and life course transitions.
https://www.mcgill.ca/sociology/contact-us/faculty/clark
https://www.mcgill.ca/sociology/contact-us/faculty/clark
Thread!
1/ Concerns about low birth rates & below "replacement" fertility have been in the news a lot lately. But what does "replacement fertility" mean exactly?
(Throwback pic to that time I tried replacement fertility all in one go). jenndowd.substack.com/p/what-is-re... #demography #fertility
(Throwback pic to that time I tried replacement fertility all in one go). jenndowd.substack.com/p/what-is-re... #demography #fertility
November 19, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Thread!
Reposted by Shelley Clark
Want to know why these encouraging but expected trends occurred? Well you can read the full paper here to find out: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
<em>Journal of Marriage and Family</em> | NCFR Family Science Journal | Wiley Online Library
Objective To examine whether family change in rural America is widening the rural–urban child poverty gap and increasing inequalities between children raised in married parent families and those rai...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 13, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Want to know why these encouraging but expected trends occurred? Well you can read the full paper here to find out: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Reposted by Shelley Clark
Answer #2: When using the Supplemental Poverty Rate, we find that rural child poverty rates have fallen, particularly post 2017. Broadly speaking, this progress on poverty is unexpected since rural kids are increasingly living in nonmarital families, which normally have high risks of poverty.
November 13, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Answer #2: When using the Supplemental Poverty Rate, we find that rural child poverty rates have fallen, particularly post 2017. Broadly speaking, this progress on poverty is unexpected since rural kids are increasingly living in nonmarital families, which normally have high risks of poverty.
Reposted by Shelley Clark
Answer #1: Rural kids are increasingly NOT living in married parent families. Instead they are increasingly living with cohabiting parents, never married parents, and with no parents (kinship care). This shift away from married families has happened at much faster pace for rural than urban kids.
November 13, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Answer #1: Rural kids are increasingly NOT living in married parent families. Instead they are increasingly living with cohabiting parents, never married parents, and with no parents (kinship care). This shift away from married families has happened at much faster pace for rural than urban kids.
Reposted by Shelley Clark
Ever wonder about what’s it like to grow up in rural America? So did we! @shelleydclark.bsky.social and I tackle two basic—but essential—questions in our new Journal of Marriage and Family article, just out today. Who do rural kids live with today? How likely are rural kids to grow up in poverty?
November 13, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Ever wonder about what’s it like to grow up in rural America? So did we! @shelleydclark.bsky.social and I tackle two basic—but essential—questions in our new Journal of Marriage and Family article, just out today. Who do rural kids live with today? How likely are rural kids to grow up in poverty?
Looking forward to this!
We are building a new pop center at UofT and will hold our first mini-conference on Nov 6 - come join us!!
Exhibit 1: amazing speaker line-up - featuring friends around the world to discuss why demography/pop center matters! 🤓
Exhibit 2: the iconic castle where this conference will take place 🏰 ✨
Exhibit 1: amazing speaker line-up - featuring friends around the world to discuss why demography/pop center matters! 🤓
Exhibit 2: the iconic castle where this conference will take place 🏰 ✨
November 5, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Looking forward to this!
Reposted by Shelley Clark
psu.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/t/1_np...
"The current pro-natalist project is weaponizing an imaginary rural America in ways that harm real rural Americans today."
My DeJong Lecture, and the others in the 20th anniversary event, is now available: "How pro-natalist policies harm rural Americans."
"The current pro-natalist project is weaponizing an imaginary rural America in ways that harm real rural Americans today."
My DeJong Lecture, and the others in the 20th anniversary event, is now available: "How pro-natalist policies harm rural Americans."
November 3, 2025 at 1:21 PM
psu.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/t/1_np...
"The current pro-natalist project is weaponizing an imaginary rural America in ways that harm real rural Americans today."
My DeJong Lecture, and the others in the 20th anniversary event, is now available: "How pro-natalist policies harm rural Americans."
"The current pro-natalist project is weaponizing an imaginary rural America in ways that harm real rural Americans today."
My DeJong Lecture, and the others in the 20th anniversary event, is now available: "How pro-natalist policies harm rural Americans."
psu.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/t/1_np...
"The current pro-natalist project is weaponizing an imaginary rural America in ways that harm real rural Americans today."
My DeJong Lecture, and the others in the 20th anniversary event, is now available: "How pro-natalist policies harm rural Americans."
"The current pro-natalist project is weaponizing an imaginary rural America in ways that harm real rural Americans today."
My DeJong Lecture, and the others in the 20th anniversary event, is now available: "How pro-natalist policies harm rural Americans."
November 3, 2025 at 1:21 PM
psu.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/t/1_np...
"The current pro-natalist project is weaponizing an imaginary rural America in ways that harm real rural Americans today."
My DeJong Lecture, and the others in the 20th anniversary event, is now available: "How pro-natalist policies harm rural Americans."
"The current pro-natalist project is weaponizing an imaginary rural America in ways that harm real rural Americans today."
My DeJong Lecture, and the others in the 20th anniversary event, is now available: "How pro-natalist policies harm rural Americans."
Reposted by Shelley Clark
ICYMI
My coauthors @lesja.bsky.social @karenguzzo.bsky.social & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com , which offers insights into why most demographers do NOT think there is a current fertility crisis and the panic about population decline is unwarranted.
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
theconversation.com
August 1, 2025 at 8:46 PM
ICYMI
Reposted by Shelley Clark
Repeated headlines about population collapse got you worried? @amandajean.bsky.social and a team of demographer colleagues (including me) on why you should rest easy in the face of the pronatalist panic.
Are we doomed to a demographic destiny of decline because ladies aren't having babies? No.
We've been here before. It turns out that population projections only describe one of many possible futures. Our actual future is still to be written.
We've been here before. It turns out that population projections only describe one of many possible futures. Our actual future is still to be written.
From @amandajean.bsky.social and @ccfamilies.bsky.social : "Don’t Panic: Population Projection is Not a Crystal Ball"
August 20, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Repeated headlines about population collapse got you worried? @amandajean.bsky.social and a team of demographer colleagues (including me) on why you should rest easy in the face of the pronatalist panic.
Reposted by Shelley Clark
We are building a new pop center at UofT and will hold our first mini-conference on Nov 6 - come join us!!
Exhibit 1: amazing speaker line-up - featuring friends around the world to discuss why demography/pop center matters! 🤓
Exhibit 2: the iconic castle where this conference will take place 🏰 ✨
Exhibit 1: amazing speaker line-up - featuring friends around the world to discuss why demography/pop center matters! 🤓
Exhibit 2: the iconic castle where this conference will take place 🏰 ✨
October 10, 2025 at 2:01 PM
We are building a new pop center at UofT and will hold our first mini-conference on Nov 6 - come join us!!
Exhibit 1: amazing speaker line-up - featuring friends around the world to discuss why demography/pop center matters! 🤓
Exhibit 2: the iconic castle where this conference will take place 🏰 ✨
Exhibit 1: amazing speaker line-up - featuring friends around the world to discuss why demography/pop center matters! 🤓
Exhibit 2: the iconic castle where this conference will take place 🏰 ✨
Tomorrow at 9 am EST I'll be one of the three speakers for the 20th anniversary of the De Jong Lecture at Penn State, discussing “The Underpinnings and Limits of Pronatalism.” Registration to watch on Zoom is available at the link.
pop.psu.edu/events/20th-...
pop.psu.edu/events/20th-...
20th Annual De Jong Lecture | Population Research Institute
The Department of Sociology and Criminology is thrilled to announce the 20th Anniversary of the De Jong Lectureship Series on Thursday, October 23, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. in Welch, Room 202 (or via Zoom)....
pop.psu.edu
October 22, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Tomorrow at 9 am EST I'll be one of the three speakers for the 20th anniversary of the De Jong Lecture at Penn State, discussing “The Underpinnings and Limits of Pronatalism.” Registration to watch on Zoom is available at the link.
pop.psu.edu/events/20th-...
pop.psu.edu/events/20th-...
Reposted by Shelley Clark
This new briefing paper from a larger team of demographer coauthors led by @amandajean.bsky.social complements the @theconversation.com piece three of us wrote last month described in the thread below.
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
August 21, 2025 at 12:23 PM
This new briefing paper from a larger team of demographer coauthors led by @amandajean.bsky.social complements the @theconversation.com piece three of us wrote last month described in the thread below.
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
This new briefing paper from a larger team of demographer coauthors led by @amandajean.bsky.social complements the @theconversation.com piece three of us wrote last month described in the thread below.
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
August 21, 2025 at 12:23 PM
This new briefing paper from a larger team of demographer coauthors led by @amandajean.bsky.social complements the @theconversation.com piece three of us wrote last month described in the thread below.
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
Reposted by Shelley Clark
Feeling alarmed over dire long-term population projections that suggest humanity will disappear? Don't be!
Demographers generally aren't worried, and you shouldn't be either. @amandajean.bsky.social explains why in this great @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief.
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
Demographers generally aren't worried, and you shouldn't be either. @amandajean.bsky.social explains why in this great @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief.
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
August 20, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Feeling alarmed over dire long-term population projections that suggest humanity will disappear? Don't be!
Demographers generally aren't worried, and you shouldn't be either. @amandajean.bsky.social explains why in this great @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief.
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
Demographers generally aren't worried, and you shouldn't be either. @amandajean.bsky.social explains why in this great @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief.
sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
Reposted by Shelley Clark
I found this out because there were these weird off-hand comments in the population projections from the era. I was shocked that they thought fertility rates would remain at or near Depression levels in the 1940s and 1950s.
But of course they did! We always think the future will be like the present.
But of course they did! We always think the future will be like the present.
August 20, 2025 at 4:57 PM
I found this out because there were these weird off-hand comments in the population projections from the era. I was shocked that they thought fertility rates would remain at or near Depression levels in the 1940s and 1950s.
But of course they did! We always think the future will be like the present.
But of course they did! We always think the future will be like the present.
Reposted by Shelley Clark
Did you know that in the 1930s and 1940s elites across society were wringing their hands about birthrate decline? Just like today they attributed their low fertility (BELOW REPLACEMENT, SHUDDER SHUDDER) to individualism, urbanization, consumerism, selfishness, etc.
This paper discusses it nicely.
This paper discusses it nicely.
ipc2009.popconf.org
August 20, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Did you know that in the 1930s and 1940s elites across society were wringing their hands about birthrate decline? Just like today they attributed their low fertility (BELOW REPLACEMENT, SHUDDER SHUDDER) to individualism, urbanization, consumerism, selfishness, etc.
This paper discusses it nicely.
This paper discusses it nicely.
Repeated headlines about population collapse got you worried? @amandajean.bsky.social and a team of demographer colleagues (including me) on why you should rest easy in the face of the pronatalist panic.
Are we doomed to a demographic destiny of decline because ladies aren't having babies? No.
We've been here before. It turns out that population projections only describe one of many possible futures. Our actual future is still to be written.
We've been here before. It turns out that population projections only describe one of many possible futures. Our actual future is still to be written.
From @amandajean.bsky.social and @ccfamilies.bsky.social : "Don’t Panic: Population Projection is Not a Crystal Ball"
August 20, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Repeated headlines about population collapse got you worried? @amandajean.bsky.social and a team of demographer colleagues (including me) on why you should rest easy in the face of the pronatalist panic.
ICYMI
My coauthors @lesja.bsky.social @karenguzzo.bsky.social & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com , which offers insights into why most demographers do NOT think there is a current fertility crisis and the panic about population decline is unwarranted.
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
theconversation.com
August 1, 2025 at 8:46 PM
ICYMI
Reposted by Shelley Clark
We are so glad to see this important conversation gaining traction. The fear-mongering around “population collapse” is not only overstated — it’s often rooted in outdated or biased assumptions.
👇
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
👇
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
theconversation.com
July 29, 2025 at 3:06 PM
We are so glad to see this important conversation gaining traction. The fear-mongering around “population collapse” is not only overstated — it’s often rooted in outdated or biased assumptions.
👇
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
👇
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
Reposted by Shelley Clark
My coauthors @lesja.bsky.social @karenguzzo.bsky.social & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com , which offers insights into why most demographers do NOT think there is a current fertility crisis and the panic about population decline is unwarranted.
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
theconversation.com
July 29, 2025 at 3:43 PM
My coauthors @lesja.bsky.social @karenguzzo.bsky.social & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com , which offers insights into why most demographers do NOT think there is a current fertility crisis and the panic about population decline is unwarranted.
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
My coauthors @lesja.bsky.social @karenguzzo.bsky.social & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com , which offers insights into why most demographers do NOT think there is a current fertility crisis and the panic about population decline is unwarranted.
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
theconversation.com
July 29, 2025 at 3:43 PM
My coauthors @lesja.bsky.social @karenguzzo.bsky.social & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com , which offers insights into why most demographers do NOT think there is a current fertility crisis and the panic about population decline is unwarranted.
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
Now online open access at Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health: my article with Zoe Levy showing that limits on contraception and abortion access in rural America lead more women there to opt for tubal ligation and end up unable to have wanted children later.
1/5
doi.org/10.1111/psrh...
1/5
doi.org/10.1111/psrh...
Sterilization, Infecundity, and Reproductive Autonomy in Rural, Suburban, and Urban America: Results From a National Survey
Objective Rural women are significantly more likely than urban women to be sterilized. This study aims to understand why rural women depend so heavily on this method of fertility control, whether th...
doi.org
March 17, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Now online open access at Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health: my article with Zoe Levy showing that limits on contraception and abortion access in rural America lead more women there to opt for tubal ligation and end up unable to have wanted children later.
1/5
doi.org/10.1111/psrh...
1/5
doi.org/10.1111/psrh...
Reposted by Shelley Clark
In their Washington Post Op-Ed--"In Rural America, More Women Are Saying 'I Don't'" (wapo.st/42SavfP) --Shelley Clark & @ruraldemography.bsky.social draw from the Demo article "Are Rural Areas Holdouts in the Second Demographic Transition?" @westernu.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...
Opinion | In rural America, more women are saying ‘I don’t’
Do the Trump administration’s transportation guidelines disproportionately benefit small-town families?
wapo.st
February 12, 2025 at 3:42 PM
In their Washington Post Op-Ed--"In Rural America, More Women Are Saying 'I Don't'" (wapo.st/42SavfP) --Shelley Clark & @ruraldemography.bsky.social draw from the Demo article "Are Rural Areas Holdouts in the Second Demographic Transition?" @westernu.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...