Sam Almy
@sfalmy.bsky.social
Democratic politcal strategist who also tracks early ballots. Numbers are approximate. @Uplift Campaigns
My friends know I have a very particular set of skills.
October 22, 2025 at 12:07 AM
My friends know I have a very particular set of skills.
On my first attempt my princess cake got stuck in the bowl. Glad i tried a different method the 2nd time
October 4, 2025 at 3:15 PM
On my first attempt my princess cake got stuck in the bowl. Glad i tried a different method the 2nd time
Saw takes about Adelita's win in AZ-07 way outperformed both Harris and Raul in 2024. This is supposed to be a signal that voters are swinging back towards the dems?
Comparing a presidential election to a special is silly
But if Dems can increase their vote share 14% in 2026, hello blue wave 🌊
Comparing a presidential election to a special is silly
But if Dems can increase their vote share 14% in 2026, hello blue wave 🌊
September 25, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Saw takes about Adelita's win in AZ-07 way outperformed both Harris and Raul in 2024. This is supposed to be a signal that voters are swinging back towards the dems?
Comparing a presidential election to a special is silly
But if Dems can increase their vote share 14% in 2026, hello blue wave 🌊
Comparing a presidential election to a special is silly
But if Dems can increase their vote share 14% in 2026, hello blue wave 🌊
Arizona has ~1,700 voting precincts. Since 2012, 176 have shifted left 3x in presidential elections. 66 have shifted right 3x.
I'm calling these Triple Trending precincts
Triple Right precincts tend to have a higher share of Latino voters
The precincts still vote Democratic, but a rate than 2012
I'm calling these Triple Trending precincts
Triple Right precincts tend to have a higher share of Latino voters
The precincts still vote Democratic, but a rate than 2012
September 22, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Arizona has ~1,700 voting precincts. Since 2012, 176 have shifted left 3x in presidential elections. 66 have shifted right 3x.
I'm calling these Triple Trending precincts
Triple Right precincts tend to have a higher share of Latino voters
The precincts still vote Democratic, but a rate than 2012
I'm calling these Triple Trending precincts
Triple Right precincts tend to have a higher share of Latino voters
The precincts still vote Democratic, but a rate than 2012
Oh you went for a run 100 days straight? That’s nice, I did the Wordle instead.
August 25, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Oh you went for a run 100 days straight? That’s nice, I did the Wordle instead.
*Hank Hill Voice
I don’t want a password for milk. I want hot water for tea!
I don’t want a password for milk. I want hot water for tea!
August 5, 2025 at 3:39 PM
*Hank Hill Voice
I don’t want a password for milk. I want hot water for tea!
I don’t want a password for milk. I want hot water for tea!
That would be Pima 267 - 5 total votes, 3 for Foxx.
Micro precincts make for the best outliers. Just ask Navajo County Precinct Wild Horse with 120% turnout in 2024.
Micro precincts make for the best outliers. Just ask Navajo County Precinct Wild Horse with 120% turnout in 2024.
August 4, 2025 at 4:47 PM
That would be Pima 267 - 5 total votes, 3 for Foxx.
Micro precincts make for the best outliers. Just ask Navajo County Precinct Wild Horse with 120% turnout in 2024.
Micro precincts make for the best outliers. Just ask Navajo County Precinct Wild Horse with 120% turnout in 2024.
Looking a little more at AZ-07, @dejafoxx.bsky.social unsurprisingly did well among younger voters.
Generally speaking, precincts with a higher share of under 35 voters also saw a higher share of Foxx vote %.
Her best* performance in Pima county was in and around the U of A precincts.
Generally speaking, precincts with a higher share of under 35 voters also saw a higher share of Foxx vote %.
Her best* performance in Pima county was in and around the U of A precincts.
August 1, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Looking a little more at AZ-07, @dejafoxx.bsky.social unsurprisingly did well among younger voters.
Generally speaking, precincts with a higher share of under 35 voters also saw a higher share of Foxx vote %.
Her best* performance in Pima county was in and around the U of A precincts.
Generally speaking, precincts with a higher share of under 35 voters also saw a higher share of Foxx vote %.
Her best* performance in Pima county was in and around the U of A precincts.
AZ-07 7/15 Election Day Update
64k total returns in the district, just under 50k on the Democratic side. I'd estimate this ~85% of all ballots cast in the race.
65+ voters make up 53% of returns, down 2% from 7/11. Voters 20-54 increased their vote share 24.8% to 26.2% since 7/11
64k total returns in the district, just under 50k on the Democratic side. I'd estimate this ~85% of all ballots cast in the race.
65+ voters make up 53% of returns, down 2% from 7/11. Voters 20-54 increased their vote share 24.8% to 26.2% since 7/11
July 15, 2025 at 6:56 PM
AZ-07 7/15 Election Day Update
64k total returns in the district, just under 50k on the Democratic side. I'd estimate this ~85% of all ballots cast in the race.
65+ voters make up 53% of returns, down 2% from 7/11. Voters 20-54 increased their vote share 24.8% to 26.2% since 7/11
64k total returns in the district, just under 50k on the Democratic side. I'd estimate this ~85% of all ballots cast in the race.
65+ voters make up 53% of returns, down 2% from 7/11. Voters 20-54 increased their vote share 24.8% to 26.2% since 7/11
AZ-07 Update 7/14
Posting some data from Friday. Yuma and Santa Cruz counties had nice backfills with data (they report weekly).
Dem turnout is now over 25%. Pima County turnout is at 31.4% Maricopa turnout is surprisingly low considering daily updates.
Posting some data from Friday. Yuma and Santa Cruz counties had nice backfills with data (they report weekly).
Dem turnout is now over 25%. Pima County turnout is at 31.4% Maricopa turnout is surprisingly low considering daily updates.
July 14, 2025 at 6:15 PM
AZ-07 Update 7/14
Posting some data from Friday. Yuma and Santa Cruz counties had nice backfills with data (they report weekly).
Dem turnout is now over 25%. Pima County turnout is at 31.4% Maricopa turnout is surprisingly low considering daily updates.
Posting some data from Friday. Yuma and Santa Cruz counties had nice backfills with data (they report weekly).
Dem turnout is now over 25%. Pima County turnout is at 31.4% Maricopa turnout is surprisingly low considering daily updates.
AZ-07 Update 7/11
~3.5k ballots returned yesterday for a district total of 55.6k. 42.4k are Democratic. Most returns are through Thursday, these ballots are first to appear 8pm on Tuesday
Younger Dem voters are increasing vote share, but still only make up 10% of all returns. 65+ is 55% of voters
~3.5k ballots returned yesterday for a district total of 55.6k. 42.4k are Democratic. Most returns are through Thursday, these ballots are first to appear 8pm on Tuesday
Younger Dem voters are increasing vote share, but still only make up 10% of all returns. 65+ is 55% of voters
July 11, 2025 at 7:49 PM
AZ-07 Update 7/11
~3.5k ballots returned yesterday for a district total of 55.6k. 42.4k are Democratic. Most returns are through Thursday, these ballots are first to appear 8pm on Tuesday
Younger Dem voters are increasing vote share, but still only make up 10% of all returns. 65+ is 55% of voters
~3.5k ballots returned yesterday for a district total of 55.6k. 42.4k are Democratic. Most returns are through Thursday, these ballots are first to appear 8pm on Tuesday
Younger Dem voters are increasing vote share, but still only make up 10% of all returns. 65+ is 55% of voters
Utility companies hate this one simple trick
July 11, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Utility companies hate this one simple trick
AZ-07 Update 7/10
Good news is that I caught my ballot mistake before anyone noticed. On yesterday's report, Maricopa totals were doubled.
+2k Ballots from Pima and 656 from Maricopa (-2.2k Net) are added to the tracker.
3-6.5k returns per day over the last week. A drop from week one, but normal
Good news is that I caught my ballot mistake before anyone noticed. On yesterday's report, Maricopa totals were doubled.
+2k Ballots from Pima and 656 from Maricopa (-2.2k Net) are added to the tracker.
3-6.5k returns per day over the last week. A drop from week one, but normal
July 10, 2025 at 6:04 PM
AZ-07 Update 7/10
Good news is that I caught my ballot mistake before anyone noticed. On yesterday's report, Maricopa totals were doubled.
+2k Ballots from Pima and 656 from Maricopa (-2.2k Net) are added to the tracker.
3-6.5k returns per day over the last week. A drop from week one, but normal
Good news is that I caught my ballot mistake before anyone noticed. On yesterday's report, Maricopa totals were doubled.
+2k Ballots from Pima and 656 from Maricopa (-2.2k Net) are added to the tracker.
3-6.5k returns per day over the last week. A drop from week one, but normal
AZ-07 Update 7/9
~8k ballots added to the tracker. Updates from all counties. Santa Cruz jumping slightly ahead of Yuma in total returns. SC had more ballots in the 2024 primary but fewer in 2022 vs Yuma.
Dem turnout is now over 20%, far outpacing GOP and 3rd party.
~8k ballots added to the tracker. Updates from all counties. Santa Cruz jumping slightly ahead of Yuma in total returns. SC had more ballots in the 2024 primary but fewer in 2022 vs Yuma.
Dem turnout is now over 20%, far outpacing GOP and 3rd party.
July 9, 2025 at 6:55 PM
AZ-07 Update 7/9
~8k ballots added to the tracker. Updates from all counties. Santa Cruz jumping slightly ahead of Yuma in total returns. SC had more ballots in the 2024 primary but fewer in 2022 vs Yuma.
Dem turnout is now over 20%, far outpacing GOP and 3rd party.
~8k ballots added to the tracker. Updates from all counties. Santa Cruz jumping slightly ahead of Yuma in total returns. SC had more ballots in the 2024 primary but fewer in 2022 vs Yuma.
Dem turnout is now over 20%, far outpacing GOP and 3rd party.
AZ-07 Maricopa Update 7/8
Adding ~800 total ballots just from Maricopa County today. Additional ballots likely this afternoon.
Democratic ballot returns are getting slightly younger, Voters aged 65+ make up 57% of returns. Voters aged 25-34 have the lowest turnout of any group at 6.9%
Adding ~800 total ballots just from Maricopa County today. Additional ballots likely this afternoon.
Democratic ballot returns are getting slightly younger, Voters aged 65+ make up 57% of returns. Voters aged 25-34 have the lowest turnout of any group at 6.9%
July 8, 2025 at 7:14 PM
AZ-07 Maricopa Update 7/8
Adding ~800 total ballots just from Maricopa County today. Additional ballots likely this afternoon.
Democratic ballot returns are getting slightly younger, Voters aged 65+ make up 57% of returns. Voters aged 25-34 have the lowest turnout of any group at 6.9%
Adding ~800 total ballots just from Maricopa County today. Additional ballots likely this afternoon.
Democratic ballot returns are getting slightly younger, Voters aged 65+ make up 57% of returns. Voters aged 25-34 have the lowest turnout of any group at 6.9%
AZ-07 7/7 Update
Updated totals from each county except Pinal. Total Dem returns are now 33k or 17.3% turnout.
Independents make up 10% of all Democratic ballot returns.
71% of ballot returns are from Pima County. In the past AZ-07 July primaries, Pima made up 68% of all voters.
Updated totals from each county except Pinal. Total Dem returns are now 33k or 17.3% turnout.
Independents make up 10% of all Democratic ballot returns.
71% of ballot returns are from Pima County. In the past AZ-07 July primaries, Pima made up 68% of all voters.
July 7, 2025 at 9:51 PM
AZ-07 7/7 Update
Updated totals from each county except Pinal. Total Dem returns are now 33k or 17.3% turnout.
Independents make up 10% of all Democratic ballot returns.
71% of ballot returns are from Pima County. In the past AZ-07 July primaries, Pima made up 68% of all voters.
Updated totals from each county except Pinal. Total Dem returns are now 33k or 17.3% turnout.
Independents make up 10% of all Democratic ballot returns.
71% of ballot returns are from Pima County. In the past AZ-07 July primaries, Pima made up 68% of all voters.
I’m receiving an above average number of fundraising texts early in the quarter.
Is this a new PAC strategy?
My current favorite 👇
Is this a new PAC strategy?
My current favorite 👇
July 6, 2025 at 9:38 PM
I’m receiving an above average number of fundraising texts early in the quarter.
Is this a new PAC strategy?
My current favorite 👇
Is this a new PAC strategy?
My current favorite 👇
Here are my 4th of July Smores Brownies.
I made them. I eat them.
I made them. I eat them.
July 4, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Here are my 4th of July Smores Brownies.
I made them. I eat them.
I made them. I eat them.
AZ-07 July 4th Update
Wasn't expecting an update today, but here we are.
Just over 5k ballots posted from yesterday. Santa Cruz is on the board with 1.2k returns.
Dem turnout climbs to 30.4k returns and 15.5% turnout.
Wasn't expecting an update today, but here we are.
Just over 5k ballots posted from yesterday. Santa Cruz is on the board with 1.2k returns.
Dem turnout climbs to 30.4k returns and 15.5% turnout.
July 4, 2025 at 5:23 PM
AZ-07 July 4th Update
Wasn't expecting an update today, but here we are.
Just over 5k ballots posted from yesterday. Santa Cruz is on the board with 1.2k returns.
Dem turnout climbs to 30.4k returns and 15.5% turnout.
Wasn't expecting an update today, but here we are.
Just over 5k ballots posted from yesterday. Santa Cruz is on the board with 1.2k returns.
Dem turnout climbs to 30.4k returns and 15.5% turnout.
AZ07 Thursday Update
Not much to report here, 626 ballots from Maricopa County seen today. Nothing from the other counties.
Not much to report here, 626 ballots from Maricopa County seen today. Nothing from the other counties.
July 3, 2025 at 8:23 PM
AZ07 Thursday Update
Not much to report here, 626 ballots from Maricopa County seen today. Nothing from the other counties.
Not much to report here, 626 ballots from Maricopa County seen today. Nothing from the other counties.
#AZ-07 Wednesday Update
Yuma County posting their first large file today with 2.5k returns. Pima, Maricopa, and Cochise totals also updated.
24k Dem ballot returns, turnout is 12.3%
Voters aged 65+ still making up 60% of returns. Turnout from voters under 34 = 1.7%
Yuma County posting their first large file today with 2.5k returns. Pima, Maricopa, and Cochise totals also updated.
24k Dem ballot returns, turnout is 12.3%
Voters aged 65+ still making up 60% of returns. Turnout from voters under 34 = 1.7%
July 2, 2025 at 5:43 PM
#AZ-07 Wednesday Update
Yuma County posting their first large file today with 2.5k returns. Pima, Maricopa, and Cochise totals also updated.
24k Dem ballot returns, turnout is 12.3%
Voters aged 65+ still making up 60% of returns. Turnout from voters under 34 = 1.7%
Yuma County posting their first large file today with 2.5k returns. Pima, Maricopa, and Cochise totals also updated.
24k Dem ballot returns, turnout is 12.3%
Voters aged 65+ still making up 60% of returns. Turnout from voters under 34 = 1.7%
#AZ-07 Tuesday Update
22k total returns including 1 (one) from Yuma County. Dem turnout climbing towards double digits, still at 8.6%.
Maricopa jumped to 9% with 500 returns today.
22k total returns including 1 (one) from Yuma County. Dem turnout climbing towards double digits, still at 8.6%.
Maricopa jumped to 9% with 500 returns today.
July 1, 2025 at 8:26 PM
#AZ-07 Tuesday Update
22k total returns including 1 (one) from Yuma County. Dem turnout climbing towards double digits, still at 8.6%.
Maricopa jumped to 9% with 500 returns today.
22k total returns including 1 (one) from Yuma County. Dem turnout climbing towards double digits, still at 8.6%.
Maricopa jumped to 9% with 500 returns today.
#AZ-07 Monday Update
11.6k Democratic returns (posting GOP returns because a splash of color is nice on my charts)
Indy-Dem returns have fallen to 8.5% of all returns.
Cochise and Pima are just over 9% turnout. I'd expect Maricopa turnout to be similar to Pima. Maybe MCRO is preoccupied
11.6k Democratic returns (posting GOP returns because a splash of color is nice on my charts)
Indy-Dem returns have fallen to 8.5% of all returns.
Cochise and Pima are just over 9% turnout. I'd expect Maricopa turnout to be similar to Pima. Maybe MCRO is preoccupied
June 30, 2025 at 7:16 PM
#AZ-07 Monday Update
11.6k Democratic returns (posting GOP returns because a splash of color is nice on my charts)
Indy-Dem returns have fallen to 8.5% of all returns.
Cochise and Pima are just over 9% turnout. I'd expect Maricopa turnout to be similar to Pima. Maybe MCRO is preoccupied
11.6k Democratic returns (posting GOP returns because a splash of color is nice on my charts)
Indy-Dem returns have fallen to 8.5% of all returns.
Cochise and Pima are just over 9% turnout. I'd expect Maricopa turnout to be similar to Pima. Maybe MCRO is preoccupied
#AZ-07 early ballots from Cochise, Pinal, Pima, and Maricopa Counties today. Most coming from Pima (4.4k)
Dem turnout up to 7.4%. For reference the 2024 August primary had a total of 39% Democratic turnout.
Dem turnout up to 7.4%. For reference the 2024 August primary had a total of 39% Democratic turnout.
June 27, 2025 at 6:29 PM
#AZ-07 early ballots from Cochise, Pinal, Pima, and Maricopa Counties today. Most coming from Pima (4.4k)
Dem turnout up to 7.4%. For reference the 2024 August primary had a total of 39% Democratic turnout.
Dem turnout up to 7.4%. For reference the 2024 August primary had a total of 39% Democratic turnout.
#AZ07 Update
~450 returns from Maricopa County today. Didn't see a Pima or other counties. Maybe we get two tomorrow?
Independents make up 14% of Dem returns. I'd expect that to drop over time.
Voters aged 65+ make up 65% of all ballot returns. Typical for this early in a primary election.
~450 returns from Maricopa County today. Didn't see a Pima or other counties. Maybe we get two tomorrow?
Independents make up 14% of Dem returns. I'd expect that to drop over time.
Voters aged 65+ make up 65% of all ballot returns. Typical for this early in a primary election.
June 26, 2025 at 8:10 PM
#AZ07 Update
~450 returns from Maricopa County today. Didn't see a Pima or other counties. Maybe we get two tomorrow?
Independents make up 14% of Dem returns. I'd expect that to drop over time.
Voters aged 65+ make up 65% of all ballot returns. Typical for this early in a primary election.
~450 returns from Maricopa County today. Didn't see a Pima or other counties. Maybe we get two tomorrow?
Independents make up 14% of Dem returns. I'd expect that to drop over time.
Voters aged 65+ make up 65% of all ballot returns. Typical for this early in a primary election.