Seyyon
@seyyon.bsky.social
Amateur observer of Russia's war economy.
Interested in banks. Pun intended.
Interested in banks. Pun intended.
4.5-5.5 federal. 7.5-8.5 consolidated.
January 11, 2026 at 4:50 AM
4.5-5.5 federal. 7.5-8.5 consolidated.
Yep the central bank key rate
January 2, 2026 at 11:55 AM
Yep the central bank key rate
Thanks for the thread, very interesting.
Do you think the easing cycle is likely to continue at the same pace this year?
Do you think the easing cycle is likely to continue at the same pace this year?
January 2, 2026 at 11:52 AM
Thanks for the thread, very interesting.
Do you think the easing cycle is likely to continue at the same pace this year?
Do you think the easing cycle is likely to continue at the same pace this year?
Repos aren't used for government spending. They support the P2P lending market between banks. It is tangentially related to the budget deficit in that banks also buy gov bonds but the weekly consumption of bonds does not marry with repo volumes at all.
December 30, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Repos aren't used for government spending. They support the P2P lending market between banks. It is tangentially related to the budget deficit in that banks also buy gov bonds but the weekly consumption of bonds does not marry with repo volumes at all.
Do you think weapons production growth counterbalances these numbers to get to an overall -0.7%?
December 26, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Do you think weapons production growth counterbalances these numbers to get to an overall -0.7%?
Yep I agree.
It also helps to consider that it is banks who are the government's biggest bond buyers or financiers - and not exporters like Rosneft .etc
So the ru treasury, like any company really, needs to prioritise its stakeholders.
It also helps to consider that it is banks who are the government's biggest bond buyers or financiers - and not exporters like Rosneft .etc
So the ru treasury, like any company really, needs to prioritise its stakeholders.
December 23, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Yep I agree.
It also helps to consider that it is banks who are the government's biggest bond buyers or financiers - and not exporters like Rosneft .etc
So the ru treasury, like any company really, needs to prioritise its stakeholders.
It also helps to consider that it is banks who are the government's biggest bond buyers or financiers - and not exporters like Rosneft .etc
So the ru treasury, like any company really, needs to prioritise its stakeholders.
This is a very informative thread thank you
December 23, 2025 at 5:27 PM
This is a very informative thread thank you
And yield spikes. A weaker ruble should also rout government bonds.
December 23, 2025 at 5:27 PM
And yield spikes. A weaker ruble should also rout government bonds.
I don't see a table
Just a screenshot of a truncated URL
Just a screenshot of a truncated URL
December 23, 2025 at 5:21 PM
I don't see a table
Just a screenshot of a truncated URL
Just a screenshot of a truncated URL
Barely a thousand rubles per barrel wow
December 23, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Barely a thousand rubles per barrel wow
Thank you for the thread
December 17, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Thank you for the thread
VAT was raised to 20% from 18% in 2019
taxnews.ey.com/news/2018-15...
taxnews.ey.com/news/2018-15...
Russia to increase standard VAT rate from 18% to 20% as of January 1, 2019
Russia to increase standard VAT rate from 18% to 20% as of January 1, 2019
taxnews.ey.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:07 PM
VAT was raised to 20% from 18% in 2019
taxnews.ey.com/news/2018-15...
taxnews.ey.com/news/2018-15...
There are opposite deposit auctions with the central bank which absorb liquidity. Repos and deposits work as a push-pull mechanism.
To be clear the volume of repo is alarmingly high, but it's not straight money printing. Well it shouldn't be.
www.cbr.ru/eng/oper_br/...
www.cbr.ru/eng/statisti...
To be clear the volume of repo is alarmingly high, but it's not straight money printing. Well it shouldn't be.
www.cbr.ru/eng/oper_br/...
www.cbr.ru/eng/statisti...
Forecast of factors affecting banking sector liquidity used to determine the limit on the CBR 1-week auctions* | Bank of Russia
www.cbr.ru
December 5, 2025 at 4:38 PM
There are opposite deposit auctions with the central bank which absorb liquidity. Repos and deposits work as a push-pull mechanism.
To be clear the volume of repo is alarmingly high, but it's not straight money printing. Well it shouldn't be.
www.cbr.ru/eng/oper_br/...
www.cbr.ru/eng/statisti...
To be clear the volume of repo is alarmingly high, but it's not straight money printing. Well it shouldn't be.
www.cbr.ru/eng/oper_br/...
www.cbr.ru/eng/statisti...
It's risky to invest in China because the fx swap is volatile. But if the government is supporting the swap by issuing yuan bonds then investing in China becomes much less risky. Which forces those bonds to be more competitive and possibly drives up yields which is counterproductive for Russia. 3/3
December 4, 2025 at 8:03 PM
It's risky to invest in China because the fx swap is volatile. But if the government is supporting the swap by issuing yuan bonds then investing in China becomes much less risky. Which forces those bonds to be more competitive and possibly drives up yields which is counterproductive for Russia. 3/3
I'm not sure if there is public data on how much Russian investors/banks are tempted to use their yuan to buy financial instruments in China. If they can invest in China, then these Russian yuan bonds would need to compete with that too as well as any deposit rate from Russian banks. 2/3
December 4, 2025 at 8:03 PM
I'm not sure if there is public data on how much Russian investors/banks are tempted to use their yuan to buy financial instruments in China. If they can invest in China, then these Russian yuan bonds would need to compete with that too as well as any deposit rate from Russian banks. 2/3
What is the/Is there a deposit rate for yuan held by Russian banks? As I understand it these yuan bonds are designed to support the CNYRUB swap whilst absorbing idle liquidity in Russian banks kept there by exporters.
But idk how idle all that yuan is. 1/3
But idk how idle all that yuan is. 1/3
December 4, 2025 at 8:03 PM
What is the/Is there a deposit rate for yuan held by Russian banks? As I understand it these yuan bonds are designed to support the CNYRUB swap whilst absorbing idle liquidity in Russian banks kept there by exporters.
But idk how idle all that yuan is. 1/3
But idk how idle all that yuan is. 1/3