There's a mistake in the report. The central bank lowered its rate five times in 2025 not four. From 21% to 20% to 18% to 17% to 16.5% to 16%. So by 100bp then 200 then 100 then 50 then 50 again.

Cheers Leo!

Thanks for the thread. I'd like to add this recent updated table of Russia's current account shared by the CBR two weeks ago.
cbr.ru/statistics/m...
You can see the historical table here
www.cbr.ru/eng/statisti...

There is a clear and marked deterioration in the Russian current account.

That's what I thought too but I saw this image posted elsewhere and it shows how quickly the price is moving and how the volumes being traded are falling.
I have no idea how to verify these numbers, other than the prics, or where this graph actually comes from unfortunately.

Russia's Treasury forecasts oil/gas revenue for 2026 at 22% of the total revenue.

YTD oil/gas revenue is about 25%. In the latter few months it is closer to 20%.

www.interfax.ru/russia/1047937

Whilst there is a chain of credible debt instruments so this isn't helicopter money, all of this new debt still demands interest. This is the real killer. The military economy has cannibalised everything else through this. And when many companies can't meet debt obligations, banks tumble. 🇷🇺 ➡️🔥

When headlines like this are published weekly instead of monthly.

Yes most likely. July's budget deficit is alarmingly high given that it is one of the four months for extra oil/gas tax yields.