SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader.bsky.social
The Sentimentrader Advantage: Over 20 years of exclusive, data-driven insights and unrivaled market sentiment tools.
Website: sentimentrader.com
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Website: sentimentrader.com
X: x.com/sentimentrader
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/sentimentrader
YouTube: youtube.com/SentimenTrader
The Wall Street Journal noted that the yield spread between the 2-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond has steepened to the widest point in several years.
September 4, 2025 at 1:27 AM
The Wall Street Journal noted that the yield spread between the 2-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond has steepened to the widest point in several years.
Small options traders are less of a force than they were 4 years ago.Still, they've been pushing their bullish bets...just not to the degree they were a few years ago.
August 22, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Small options traders are less of a force than they were 4 years ago.Still, they've been pushing their bullish bets...just not to the degree they were a few years ago.
For the first time since 2021, every single MSCI Asia-Pacific country index is now trading above its 200-day average. When over 95% of Asia-Pacific countries exceeded their long-term average, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index has historically delivered an impressive 29% annualized return.
August 22, 2025 at 1:27 AM
For the first time since 2021, every single MSCI Asia-Pacific country index is now trading above its 200-day average. When over 95% of Asia-Pacific countries exceeded their long-term average, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index has historically delivered an impressive 29% annualized return.
Human nature never changes. When bad economic news arises, investors become more fearful as things worsen. Two little-known datasets have highlighted significant recent concerns regarding monetary policy and inflation. According to Jay kaeppel,history suggests that this is a good thing.
August 22, 2025 at 1:26 AM
Human nature never changes. When bad economic news arises, investors become more fearful as things worsen. Two little-known datasets have highlighted significant recent concerns regarding monetary policy and inflation. According to Jay kaeppel,history suggests that this is a good thing.
One stock not among the recent surge is Berkshire Hathaway.
A retiring legend and record cash balance during a momentum market are deadly for returns.
A retiring legend and record cash balance during a momentum market are deadly for returns.
August 20, 2025 at 1:22 AM
One stock not among the recent surge is Berkshire Hathaway.
A retiring legend and record cash balance during a momentum market are deadly for returns.
A retiring legend and record cash balance during a momentum market are deadly for returns.
The technology sector has roared higher following an early-year sell-off. Oversold signals in April followed by recent continuation signals suggest the rally could continue longer than many may suspect according to Jay kaeppel
August 20, 2025 at 1:21 AM
The technology sector has roared higher following an early-year sell-off. Oversold signals in April followed by recent continuation signals suggest the rally could continue longer than many may suspect according to Jay kaeppel
Following a four-day pullback, buyers regained control, propelling the S&P 500 to fresh record territory on Tuesday. Market breadth was equally impressive, as NYSE advancers outpaced decliners by a 4-to-1 margin in two of the last seven sessions.
August 18, 2025 at 2:34 AM
Following a four-day pullback, buyers regained control, propelling the S&P 500 to fresh record territory on Tuesday. Market breadth was equally impressive, as NYSE advancers outpaced decliners by a 4-to-1 margin in two of the last seven sessions.
Small business owners are feeling better.
For the first time in several months, the NFIB survey popped above 100. For the small-cap Russell 2000 index, a reading above 100 is not necessarily a great sign.
For the first time in several months, the NFIB survey popped above 100. For the small-cap Russell 2000 index, a reading above 100 is not necessarily a great sign.
August 15, 2025 at 1:09 AM
Small business owners are feeling better.
For the first time in several months, the NFIB survey popped above 100. For the small-cap Russell 2000 index, a reading above 100 is not necessarily a great sign.
For the first time in several months, the NFIB survey popped above 100. For the small-cap Russell 2000 index, a reading above 100 is not necessarily a great sign.
The Nasdaq 100 just did something it's never done before. Not in a good way.
August 13, 2025 at 1:34 AM
The Nasdaq 100 just did something it's never done before. Not in a good way.
Bitcoin tends to react well when trend, sentiment, and breadth is supportive.
A simple Triple 40 system invests when bitcoin is above its 40-day average, at least 40% of traders are bullish, and 40% of cryptocurrencies are in uptrends.
A simple Triple 40 system invests when bitcoin is above its 40-day average, at least 40% of traders are bullish, and 40% of cryptocurrencies are in uptrends.
August 8, 2025 at 1:09 AM
Bitcoin tends to react well when trend, sentiment, and breadth is supportive.
A simple Triple 40 system invests when bitcoin is above its 40-day average, at least 40% of traders are bullish, and 40% of cryptocurrencies are in uptrends.
A simple Triple 40 system invests when bitcoin is above its 40-day average, at least 40% of traders are bullish, and 40% of cryptocurrencies are in uptrends.
The S&P 500 just exhibited a rare pattern by rising for at least four consecutive days to a record high, only to follow that with four straight days of losses.
August 7, 2025 at 2:15 AM
The S&P 500 just exhibited a rare pattern by rising for at least four consecutive days to a record high, only to follow that with four straight days of losses.
Macro conditions in the U.S. are not great.
Our Macro Index Model's latest reading has a better-than-even historical record of preceding a recession within one year. It won't take much for the model to fall further, and that would significantly raise investors' risks.
Our Macro Index Model's latest reading has a better-than-even historical record of preceding a recession within one year. It won't take much for the model to fall further, and that would significantly raise investors' risks.
August 6, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Macro conditions in the U.S. are not great.
Our Macro Index Model's latest reading has a better-than-even historical record of preceding a recession within one year. It won't take much for the model to fall further, and that would significantly raise investors' risks.
Our Macro Index Model's latest reading has a better-than-even historical record of preceding a recession within one year. It won't take much for the model to fall further, and that would significantly raise investors' risks.
Jay kaeppel highlighted in a recent post that price, cyclical, and seasonal factors are aligning favorably for commodities, creating a potential opportunity for investors in commodity ETFs.
August 4, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Jay kaeppel highlighted in a recent post that price, cyclical, and seasonal factors are aligning favorably for commodities, creating a potential opportunity for investors in commodity ETFs.
Every S&P 500 sector except health care has closed above its 200-day moving average. This kind of alignment is particularly encouraging after a period when none of the sectors were trading above their 200-day averages.
August 4, 2025 at 1:26 AM
Every S&P 500 sector except health care has closed above its 200-day moving average. This kind of alignment is particularly encouraging after a period when none of the sectors were trading above their 200-day averages.
On Monday, the world's most benchmarked index notched its sixth consecutive record high, completing the second-fastest rebound from a six-month low to this many all-time highs, trailing only 1961.
August 1, 2025 at 1:09 AM
On Monday, the world's most benchmarked index notched its sixth consecutive record high, completing the second-fastest rebound from a six-month low to this many all-time highs, trailing only 1961.
Volatility is ebbing fast.
Watching how much the VIX moves lets us know how comfortable traders are with their beliefs.
Watching how much the VIX moves lets us know how comfortable traders are with their beliefs.
July 30, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Volatility is ebbing fast.
Watching how much the VIX moves lets us know how comfortable traders are with their beliefs.
Watching how much the VIX moves lets us know how comfortable traders are with their beliefs.
Amid the fanfare surrounding the S&P 500's 12th record high in 2025, a more consequential signal emerged beneath the surface, one that has often preceded exceptional returns for the world's most benchmarked index.
July 29, 2025 at 1:06 AM
Amid the fanfare surrounding the S&P 500's 12th record high in 2025, a more consequential signal emerged beneath the surface, one that has often preceded exceptional returns for the world's most benchmarked index.
🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 24 article "Bulls get more support from global momentum": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...
July 28, 2025 at 1:12 AM
🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 24 article "Bulls get more support from global momentum": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...
Whether the bond market is smarter than the stock market is debatable.
Regardless, bond traders are not worried about defaults. And that has been a very good thing for the S&P 500.
Watch out if the index climbs above its 50-day moving average.
Regardless, bond traders are not worried about defaults. And that has been a very good thing for the S&P 500.
Watch out if the index climbs above its 50-day moving average.
July 25, 2025 at 1:06 AM
Whether the bond market is smarter than the stock market is debatable.
Regardless, bond traders are not worried about defaults. And that has been a very good thing for the S&P 500.
Watch out if the index climbs above its 50-day moving average.
Regardless, bond traders are not worried about defaults. And that has been a very good thing for the S&P 500.
Watch out if the index climbs above its 50-day moving average.
When you push a ball deep underwater, it doesn't just float back - it surges. Tech investors know the feeling. After the S&P 500 technology sector cycled from at least 15% below its 200-day average to 15% above it, those stocks displayed solid consistency and returns over the following year.
July 24, 2025 at 1:18 AM
When you push a ball deep underwater, it doesn't just float back - it surges. Tech investors know the feeling. After the S&P 500 technology sector cycled from at least 15% below its 200-day average to 15% above it, those stocks displayed solid consistency and returns over the following year.
So far this year, the cumulative gain by buying a down day in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and holding it only for the next session is +29%.
That's second only to 2020 and ahead of the year 2000.
The S&P 500's cumulative +18% return is tied for the 4th-highest since 1928.
That's second only to 2020 and ahead of the year 2000.
The S&P 500's cumulative +18% return is tied for the 4th-highest since 1928.
July 23, 2025 at 1:31 AM
So far this year, the cumulative gain by buying a down day in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and holding it only for the next session is +29%.
That's second only to 2020 and ahead of the year 2000.
The S&P 500's cumulative +18% return is tied for the 4th-highest since 1928.
That's second only to 2020 and ahead of the year 2000.
The S&P 500's cumulative +18% return is tied for the 4th-highest since 1928.
Thanks to a marked improvement in alternative managers, the S&P 1500 Asset Management group triggered a new trend score buy signal
🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 18 "Alternative asset managers regain leadership status”: users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...
🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 18 "Alternative asset managers regain leadership status”: users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...
July 22, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Thanks to a marked improvement in alternative managers, the S&P 1500 Asset Management group triggered a new trend score buy signal
🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 18 "Alternative asset managers regain leadership status”: users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...
🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 18 "Alternative asset managers regain leadership status”: users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...
Metals have been showing significant strength. While Jay kaeppel is not prone to standing in the way of a powerful advance, he felt compelled to point out some contrarian signals in a recent post.
July 16, 2025 at 1:08 AM
Metals have been showing significant strength. While Jay kaeppel is not prone to standing in the way of a powerful advance, he felt compelled to point out some contrarian signals in a recent post.
There's always something to complain about.
According to financial media, the rally isn't being led by what it should be because discretionary and small-cap stocks are lagging badly.
After similar conditions since 1926, only one instance (in 1990) preceded a meaningful downturn in stocks.
According to financial media, the rally isn't being led by what it should be because discretionary and small-cap stocks are lagging badly.
After similar conditions since 1926, only one instance (in 1990) preceded a meaningful downturn in stocks.
July 16, 2025 at 1:04 AM
There's always something to complain about.
According to financial media, the rally isn't being led by what it should be because discretionary and small-cap stocks are lagging badly.
After similar conditions since 1926, only one instance (in 1990) preceded a meaningful downturn in stocks.
According to financial media, the rally isn't being led by what it should be because discretionary and small-cap stocks are lagging badly.
After similar conditions since 1926, only one instance (in 1990) preceded a meaningful downturn in stocks.
A few weeks ago, I published a report highlighting that both the S&P 500 Technology sector and the Nasdaq 100 had triggered deviation-from-trend signals, pointing to a favorable shift in price momentum.
July 15, 2025 at 1:06 AM
A few weeks ago, I published a report highlighting that both the S&P 500 Technology sector and the Nasdaq 100 had triggered deviation-from-trend signals, pointing to a favorable shift in price momentum.