Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
@semuhi.bsky.social
@idos-research.bsky.social
Ph.D., University of Toronto.
German Marshall Fund Marshall Memorial Fellow
I study propaganda, repression, and polarization. Previously, forecasting work at Maidan Analytics.
https://semuhi.github.io
Ph.D., University of Toronto.
German Marshall Fund Marshall Memorial Fellow
I study propaganda, repression, and polarization. Previously, forecasting work at Maidan Analytics.
https://semuhi.github.io
The European Democracy Shield is officially out!
I'm pleased I could offer inputs to these conversations with my colleagues at @idos-research.bsky.social.
🔑 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐲𝐞: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥e.
I'm pleased I could offer inputs to these conversations with my colleagues at @idos-research.bsky.social.
🔑 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐲𝐞: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥e.
November 13, 2025 at 1:30 PM
The European Democracy Shield is officially out!
I'm pleased I could offer inputs to these conversations with my colleagues at @idos-research.bsky.social.
🔑 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐲𝐞: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥e.
I'm pleased I could offer inputs to these conversations with my colleagues at @idos-research.bsky.social.
🔑 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐲𝐞: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥e.
It doesn't get any better than this. I'm talking about the #NewWaysofGoverning conference organized by @undp-gpcg.bsky.social in #Oslo.
We discussed #democraticinnovation with an incredible group of people and brainstormed ideas for the future of governance.
I have three main takeaways:
We discussed #democraticinnovation with an incredible group of people and brainstormed ideas for the future of governance.
I have three main takeaways:
November 5, 2025 at 2:48 PM
It doesn't get any better than this. I'm talking about the #NewWaysofGoverning conference organized by @undp-gpcg.bsky.social in #Oslo.
We discussed #democraticinnovation with an incredible group of people and brainstormed ideas for the future of governance.
I have three main takeaways:
We discussed #democraticinnovation with an incredible group of people and brainstormed ideas for the future of governance.
I have three main takeaways:
❗ Corruption and financial irregularities represent by far the most common charges, though nearly half of these cases ultimately resulted in acquittals or dismissals.
October 30, 2025 at 4:04 PM
❗ Corruption and financial irregularities represent by far the most common charges, though nearly half of these cases ultimately resulted in acquittals or dismissals.
♟️ Between 1989 and 2021, more than 75% of democratic and hybrid regimes initiated at least one prosecution against a former leader. Latin America stands out significantly in this trend.
October 30, 2025 at 4:03 PM
♟️ Between 1989 and 2021, more than 75% of democratic and hybrid regimes initiated at least one prosecution against a former leader. Latin America stands out significantly in this trend.
𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 #𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 #𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬?
They face huge risks, especially during economic crises, when dictators choose to financially extort or #purge their business allies. And yet, despite their power to disrupt, business elites rarely switch sides.
My research shows why.
They face huge risks, especially during economic crises, when dictators choose to financially extort or #purge their business allies. And yet, despite their power to disrupt, business elites rarely switch sides.
My research shows why.
October 7, 2025 at 1:03 PM
𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 #𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 #𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬?
They face huge risks, especially during economic crises, when dictators choose to financially extort or #purge their business allies. And yet, despite their power to disrupt, business elites rarely switch sides.
My research shows why.
They face huge risks, especially during economic crises, when dictators choose to financially extort or #purge their business allies. And yet, despite their power to disrupt, business elites rarely switch sides.
My research shows why.
"𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐨𝐟 #𝐠𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬." You’ve probably heard that a lot lately.
#European leaders now frame international assistance as a strategic tool to protect borders, prevent #conflict, and promote commercial ties.
#European leaders now frame international assistance as a strategic tool to protect borders, prevent #conflict, and promote commercial ties.
October 6, 2025 at 1:30 PM
"𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐨𝐟 #𝐠𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬." You’ve probably heard that a lot lately.
#European leaders now frame international assistance as a strategic tool to protect borders, prevent #conflict, and promote commercial ties.
#European leaders now frame international assistance as a strategic tool to protect borders, prevent #conflict, and promote commercial ties.
#Humanitarian #aid is taking a backseat to #geopolitics. As an act of solidarity, it helped win hearts & minds. But would it have the same effect linked to strategic interests? The results are surprisingly positive! Thanks Diplomatisches Magazin for featuring my research. @idos-research.bsky.social
July 8, 2025 at 2:11 PM
#Humanitarian #aid is taking a backseat to #geopolitics. As an act of solidarity, it helped win hearts & minds. But would it have the same effect linked to strategic interests? The results are surprisingly positive! Thanks Diplomatisches Magazin for featuring my research. @idos-research.bsky.social
What a day! @deutschewelle.bsky.social Global Media Forum is just another reason to love this beautiful city of #Bonn. We organized a panel on how to foster cross-sectoral collaborations with businesses to protect information integrity. I have three key takeaways from our conversations:
July 8, 2025 at 11:13 AM
What a day! @deutschewelle.bsky.social Global Media Forum is just another reason to love this beautiful city of #Bonn. We organized a panel on how to foster cross-sectoral collaborations with businesses to protect information integrity. I have three key takeaways from our conversations:
Are you #GMF25 in Bonn? Then join us for our panel in the afternoon! We have an amazing line-up!
How can businesses help protect the information space? How did the US funding cuts impact collaborations? How to improve the audience perception of toolkit?
@news.dw.com @idos-research.bsky.social
How can businesses help protect the information space? How did the US funding cuts impact collaborations? How to improve the audience perception of toolkit?
@news.dw.com @idos-research.bsky.social
July 7, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Are you #GMF25 in Bonn? Then join us for our panel in the afternoon! We have an amazing line-up!
How can businesses help protect the information space? How did the US funding cuts impact collaborations? How to improve the audience perception of toolkit?
@news.dw.com @idos-research.bsky.social
How can businesses help protect the information space? How did the US funding cuts impact collaborations? How to improve the audience perception of toolkit?
@news.dw.com @idos-research.bsky.social
Check out this issue @jodemocracy.bsky.social ! It features insightful articles by a great lineup of scholars, including @fromagehomme.bsky.social, @berkesen.bsky.social, @sebnemgumuscu.bsky.social, @makrevis.bsky.social among others.
July 3, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Check out this issue @jodemocracy.bsky.social ! It features insightful articles by a great lineup of scholars, including @fromagehomme.bsky.social, @berkesen.bsky.social, @sebnemgumuscu.bsky.social, @makrevis.bsky.social among others.
Why #democracy needs #business? A strong private sector is key to democratic resilience. But there are risks! It isn't business capture of state but state capture of business that poses the greatest danger to democracy, we argue in
@jodemocracy.bsky.social w/ @lucanway.bsky.social & S. Levitsky.
@jodemocracy.bsky.social w/ @lucanway.bsky.social & S. Levitsky.
July 3, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Why #democracy needs #business? A strong private sector is key to democratic resilience. But there are risks! It isn't business capture of state but state capture of business that poses the greatest danger to democracy, we argue in
@jodemocracy.bsky.social w/ @lucanway.bsky.social & S. Levitsky.
@jodemocracy.bsky.social w/ @lucanway.bsky.social & S. Levitsky.
I presented an early draft at @wzb.bsky.social, and Armin is presenting it at @epsanet.bsky.social in Madrid as we speak.
@idos-research.bsky.social
@idos-research.bsky.social
June 26, 2025 at 12:17 PM
I presented an early draft at @wzb.bsky.social, and Armin is presenting it at @epsanet.bsky.social in Madrid as we speak.
@idos-research.bsky.social
@idos-research.bsky.social
Last week, I was at the Università degli Studi di Milano to attend a #SISP workshop. With an incredible group of scholars, we discussed how #autocrats drive support for their regime. I'm bringing two ideas with me after the event.
@idos-research.bsky.social
@idos-research.bsky.social
June 10, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Last week, I was at the Università degli Studi di Milano to attend a #SISP workshop. With an incredible group of scholars, we discussed how #autocrats drive support for their regime. I'm bringing two ideas with me after the event.
@idos-research.bsky.social
@idos-research.bsky.social
It was also an opportunity for me to reconnect with this beautiful city, where I haven't been for a long time. It never ceases to amaze me.
May 27, 2025 at 11:01 AM
It was also an opportunity for me to reconnect with this beautiful city, where I haven't been for a long time. It never ceases to amaze me.
Why is media support still running on 20th-century tools in 2025?
Earlier this month, I was in Brussels for a series of events marking World Press Freedom Day. One impression stuck with me: donors and practitioners are still behind the curve on integrating new technologies into their workflows.
Earlier this month, I was in Brussels for a series of events marking World Press Freedom Day. One impression stuck with me: donors and practitioners are still behind the curve on integrating new technologies into their workflows.
May 21, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Why is media support still running on 20th-century tools in 2025?
Earlier this month, I was in Brussels for a series of events marking World Press Freedom Day. One impression stuck with me: donors and practitioners are still behind the curve on integrating new technologies into their workflows.
Earlier this month, I was in Brussels for a series of events marking World Press Freedom Day. One impression stuck with me: donors and practitioners are still behind the curve on integrating new technologies into their workflows.
It was an interesting time to be in #Birmingham. There has been a month-long strike with massive misinformation on social media, a dysfunctioning political system, and failure of social delivery. Mounting government debt will likely persist as an issue, and it's fair to expect similar strikes.
April 17, 2025 at 9:32 AM
It was an interesting time to be in #Birmingham. There has been a month-long strike with massive misinformation on social media, a dysfunctioning political system, and failure of social delivery. Mounting government debt will likely persist as an issue, and it's fair to expect similar strikes.
I presented my paper with @mjdonnelly.bsky.social on authoritarian propaganda. Grateful to @psaturkish.bsky.social @begumzorlu.bsky.social @ygursoy.bsky.social for organizing our panel and great feedback. #PSA25
@idos-research.bsky.social
@idos-research.bsky.social
April 17, 2025 at 9:32 AM
I presented my paper with @mjdonnelly.bsky.social on authoritarian propaganda. Grateful to @psaturkish.bsky.social @begumzorlu.bsky.social @ygursoy.bsky.social for organizing our panel and great feedback. #PSA25
@idos-research.bsky.social
@idos-research.bsky.social
We wrapped up #PSA25 @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social!
@psaautocracy.bsky.social lined up brilliant papers. Kudos to @felixwiebrecht.bsky.social @jbeisermcgrath.bsky.social for bringing together this community. Stay tuned for their future planned activities!
@psaautocracy.bsky.social lined up brilliant papers. Kudos to @felixwiebrecht.bsky.social @jbeisermcgrath.bsky.social for bringing together this community. Stay tuned for their future planned activities!
April 17, 2025 at 9:32 AM
We wrapped up #PSA25 @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social!
@psaautocracy.bsky.social lined up brilliant papers. Kudos to @felixwiebrecht.bsky.social @jbeisermcgrath.bsky.social for bringing together this community. Stay tuned for their future planned activities!
@psaautocracy.bsky.social lined up brilliant papers. Kudos to @felixwiebrecht.bsky.social @jbeisermcgrath.bsky.social for bringing together this community. Stay tuned for their future planned activities!
Join our panel on affective polarization and depolarization TODAY. Great line-up! #MPSA2025
I will present initial findings from an experiment in Turkey and discuss the unintended consequences of securitized foreign aid distributed with strategic intent.
I will present initial findings from an experiment in Turkey and discuss the unintended consequences of securitized foreign aid distributed with strategic intent.
April 4, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Join our panel on affective polarization and depolarization TODAY. Great line-up! #MPSA2025
I will present initial findings from an experiment in Turkey and discuss the unintended consequences of securitized foreign aid distributed with strategic intent.
I will present initial findings from an experiment in Turkey and discuss the unintended consequences of securitized foreign aid distributed with strategic intent.
The EU reaction to Imamoglu's arrest has been muted. Some EU officials expect to rely on the Turkish army to strengthen 🇪🇺security and view their public criticism as ineffective. They are wrong. Here is why 👇
@idos-research.bsky.social @globalpolicy.bsky.social
@idos-research.bsky.social @globalpolicy.bsky.social
March 27, 2025 at 11:04 AM
The EU reaction to Imamoglu's arrest has been muted. Some EU officials expect to rely on the Turkish army to strengthen 🇪🇺security and view their public criticism as ineffective. They are wrong. Here is why 👇
@idos-research.bsky.social @globalpolicy.bsky.social
@idos-research.bsky.social @globalpolicy.bsky.social
It's time for #APSA 2025 calls: @lucanway.bsky.social
and I are planning a panel on #autocratic resilience. Let us know if you have a relevant working paper! Please help us circulate this call.
cc: @apsgworkshop.bsky.social PoliSciSky Dictatorsky C/I PolEcon Comparativesky
and I are planning a panel on #autocratic resilience. Let us know if you have a relevant working paper! Please help us circulate this call.
cc: @apsgworkshop.bsky.social PoliSciSky Dictatorsky C/I PolEcon Comparativesky
December 18, 2024 at 2:56 PM
It's time for #APSA 2025 calls: @lucanway.bsky.social
and I are planning a panel on #autocratic resilience. Let us know if you have a relevant working paper! Please help us circulate this call.
cc: @apsgworkshop.bsky.social PoliSciSky Dictatorsky C/I PolEcon Comparativesky
and I are planning a panel on #autocratic resilience. Let us know if you have a relevant working paper! Please help us circulate this call.
cc: @apsgworkshop.bsky.social PoliSciSky Dictatorsky C/I PolEcon Comparativesky
When Levitsky and Way publish a piece together on JoD, you know there is a new book coming...
dictatorsky Comparativesky polisky
dictatorsky Comparativesky polisky
October 6, 2023 at 3:10 PM
When Levitsky and Way publish a piece together on JoD, you know there is a new book coming...
dictatorsky Comparativesky polisky
dictatorsky Comparativesky polisky