Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
@semuhi.bsky.social
@idos-research.bsky.social
Ph.D., University of Toronto.
German Marshall Fund Marshall Memorial Fellow
I study propaganda, repression, and polarization. Previously, forecasting work at Maidan Analytics.
https://semuhi.github.io
Ph.D., University of Toronto.
German Marshall Fund Marshall Memorial Fellow
I study propaganda, repression, and polarization. Previously, forecasting work at Maidan Analytics.
https://semuhi.github.io
Pinned
How can businesses strengthen democracy instead of undermining it | Publication | Sinanoglu, Semuhi
YouTube video by IDOS
www.youtube.com
We are rethinking #corporate civic responsibility for safeguarding #democracy at @idos-research.bsky.social.
Drawing on my research and insights from my travels throughout the US as a @gmfus.bsky.social Marshall Memorial Fellow #MMF, I deliver three key messages:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhGG...
Drawing on my research and insights from my travels throughout the US as a @gmfus.bsky.social Marshall Memorial Fellow #MMF, I deliver three key messages:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhGG...
The European Democracy Shield is officially out!
I'm pleased I could offer inputs to these conversations with my colleagues at @idos-research.bsky.social.
🔑 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐲𝐞: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥e.
I'm pleased I could offer inputs to these conversations with my colleagues at @idos-research.bsky.social.
🔑 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐲𝐞: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥e.
November 13, 2025 at 1:30 PM
The European Democracy Shield is officially out!
I'm pleased I could offer inputs to these conversations with my colleagues at @idos-research.bsky.social.
🔑 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐲𝐞: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥e.
I'm pleased I could offer inputs to these conversations with my colleagues at @idos-research.bsky.social.
🔑 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐲𝐞: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥e.
It doesn't get any better than this. I'm talking about the #NewWaysofGoverning conference organized by @undp-gpcg.bsky.social in #Oslo.
We discussed #democraticinnovation with an incredible group of people and brainstormed ideas for the future of governance.
I have three main takeaways:
We discussed #democraticinnovation with an incredible group of people and brainstormed ideas for the future of governance.
I have three main takeaways:
November 5, 2025 at 2:48 PM
It doesn't get any better than this. I'm talking about the #NewWaysofGoverning conference organized by @undp-gpcg.bsky.social in #Oslo.
We discussed #democraticinnovation with an incredible group of people and brainstormed ideas for the future of governance.
I have three main takeaways:
We discussed #democraticinnovation with an incredible group of people and brainstormed ideas for the future of governance.
I have three main takeaways:
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗱𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀? In our new dataset, we track these prosecutions with @seva.bsky.social @sahibjafarov.bsky.social. It's more common than you might think. Check out our @foreignpolicy.com op-ed for the findings.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
@idos-research.bsky.social
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
@idos-research.bsky.social
Prosecuting the Powerful
Historical data shows putting leaders on trial is a healthy democratic practice.
foreignpolicy.com
October 30, 2025 at 4:03 PM
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗱𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀? In our new dataset, we track these prosecutions with @seva.bsky.social @sahibjafarov.bsky.social. It's more common than you might think. Check out our @foreignpolicy.com op-ed for the findings.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
@idos-research.bsky.social
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
@idos-research.bsky.social
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
Despite what men like Sarkozy, Trump, and Bolsonaro may insist, prosecuting a former president or prime minister is a normal and healthy thing for advanced democracies to do.
Prosecuting the Powerful
Historical data shows putting leaders on trial is a healthy democratic practice.
foreignpolicy.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Despite what men like Sarkozy, Trump, and Bolsonaro may insist, prosecuting a former president or prime minister is a normal and healthy thing for advanced democracies to do.
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
@semuhi.bsky.social and @sahibjafarov.bsky.social did much of the work on this dataset. over a quarter of all non-autocratic rulers 1989-2021 have been prosecuted, so it was a lot of work
October 28, 2025 at 4:46 PM
@semuhi.bsky.social and @sahibjafarov.bsky.social did much of the work on this dataset. over a quarter of all non-autocratic rulers 1989-2021 have been prosecuted, so it was a lot of work
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
Prosecuting the Powerful
Historical data shows putting leaders on trial is a healthy democratic practice.
foreignpolicy.com
October 28, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
We are rethinking #corporate civic responsibility for safeguarding #democracy at @idos-research.bsky.social.
Drawing on my research and insights from my travels throughout the US as a @gmfus.bsky.social Marshall Memorial Fellow #MMF, I deliver three key messages:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhGG...
Drawing on my research and insights from my travels throughout the US as a @gmfus.bsky.social Marshall Memorial Fellow #MMF, I deliver three key messages:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhGG...
How can businesses strengthen democracy instead of undermining it | Publication | Sinanoglu, Semuhi
YouTube video by IDOS
www.youtube.com
October 21, 2025 at 11:17 AM
We are rethinking #corporate civic responsibility for safeguarding #democracy at @idos-research.bsky.social.
Drawing on my research and insights from my travels throughout the US as a @gmfus.bsky.social Marshall Memorial Fellow #MMF, I deliver three key messages:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhGG...
Drawing on my research and insights from my travels throughout the US as a @gmfus.bsky.social Marshall Memorial Fellow #MMF, I deliver three key messages:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhGG...
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
New publication alert! Why do business allies (not) defect from authoritarian regimes during crises? By @semuhi.bsky.social published on @govandopp.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1017/gov....
doi.org/10.1017/gov....
Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation | Government and Opposition | Cambridge Core
Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation
doi.org
October 8, 2025 at 10:53 AM
New publication alert! Why do business allies (not) defect from authoritarian regimes during crises? By @semuhi.bsky.social published on @govandopp.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1017/gov....
doi.org/10.1017/gov....
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
Semuhi's comparative work is depressingly relevant to current events in the US: www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/com...
October 7, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Semuhi's comparative work is depressingly relevant to current events in the US: www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/com...
𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 #𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 #𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬?
They face huge risks, especially during economic crises, when dictators choose to financially extort or #purge their business allies. And yet, despite their power to disrupt, business elites rarely switch sides.
My research shows why.
They face huge risks, especially during economic crises, when dictators choose to financially extort or #purge their business allies. And yet, despite their power to disrupt, business elites rarely switch sides.
My research shows why.
October 7, 2025 at 1:03 PM
𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 #𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 #𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬?
They face huge risks, especially during economic crises, when dictators choose to financially extort or #purge their business allies. And yet, despite their power to disrupt, business elites rarely switch sides.
My research shows why.
They face huge risks, especially during economic crises, when dictators choose to financially extort or #purge their business allies. And yet, despite their power to disrupt, business elites rarely switch sides.
My research shows why.
"𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐨𝐟 #𝐠𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬." You’ve probably heard that a lot lately.
#European leaders now frame international assistance as a strategic tool to protect borders, prevent #conflict, and promote commercial ties.
#European leaders now frame international assistance as a strategic tool to protect borders, prevent #conflict, and promote commercial ties.
October 6, 2025 at 1:30 PM
"𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐨𝐟 #𝐠𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬." You’ve probably heard that a lot lately.
#European leaders now frame international assistance as a strategic tool to protect borders, prevent #conflict, and promote commercial ties.
#European leaders now frame international assistance as a strategic tool to protect borders, prevent #conflict, and promote commercial ties.
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
🎓 Meet the 2025 MMF Fellows! (Part 4)
📣 GMF is proud to introduce the participants of the 2025 Marshall Memorial Fellowship. The fellows will begin their programming in Washington, DC, and then continue with 24 days of immersive, transatlantic travel to three European cities.
🔗 buff.ly/NPYvdep
📣 GMF is proud to introduce the participants of the 2025 Marshall Memorial Fellowship. The fellows will begin their programming in Washington, DC, and then continue with 24 days of immersive, transatlantic travel to three European cities.
🔗 buff.ly/NPYvdep
September 3, 2025 at 12:31 PM
🎓 Meet the 2025 MMF Fellows! (Part 4)
📣 GMF is proud to introduce the participants of the 2025 Marshall Memorial Fellowship. The fellows will begin their programming in Washington, DC, and then continue with 24 days of immersive, transatlantic travel to three European cities.
🔗 buff.ly/NPYvdep
📣 GMF is proud to introduce the participants of the 2025 Marshall Memorial Fellowship. The fellows will begin their programming in Washington, DC, and then continue with 24 days of immersive, transatlantic travel to three European cities.
🔗 buff.ly/NPYvdep
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
On #FirstView -
"Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - shorturl.at/4spJG
by Semuhi Sinanoglu (@semuhi.bsky.social)
"Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - shorturl.at/4spJG
by Semuhi Sinanoglu (@semuhi.bsky.social)
September 23, 2025 at 6:38 AM
On #FirstView -
"Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - shorturl.at/4spJG
by Semuhi Sinanoglu (@semuhi.bsky.social)
"Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - shorturl.at/4spJG
by Semuhi Sinanoglu (@semuhi.bsky.social)
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
#HumanitarianAid is increasingly guided by strategic interests rather than humanitarian needs. Europe’s humanitarian commitments are under strain as geopolitics reshapes international solidarity. 💡 New IDOS #PolicyBrief by IDOS expert @semuhi.bsky.social doi.org/10.23661/ipb...
September 15, 2025 at 12:44 PM
#HumanitarianAid is increasingly guided by strategic interests rather than humanitarian needs. Europe’s humanitarian commitments are under strain as geopolitics reshapes international solidarity. 💡 New IDOS #PolicyBrief by IDOS expert @semuhi.bsky.social doi.org/10.23661/ipb...
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
🎙️ In the new episode of our special series produced in partnership with @jodemocracy.bsky.social, @semuhi.bsky.social and @lucanway.bsky.social reflect on capitalism’s enduring imperfections while presenting it as a plausible force for democratic change.
🎧 Listen to it now:
👉 tinyurl.com/2mdcv2cw
🎧 Listen to it now:
👉 tinyurl.com/2mdcv2cw
September 11, 2025 at 3:31 PM
🎙️ In the new episode of our special series produced in partnership with @jodemocracy.bsky.social, @semuhi.bsky.social and @lucanway.bsky.social reflect on capitalism’s enduring imperfections while presenting it as a plausible force for democratic change.
🎧 Listen to it now:
👉 tinyurl.com/2mdcv2cw
🎧 Listen to it now:
👉 tinyurl.com/2mdcv2cw
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
#OpenAccess from @govandopp.bsky.social -
Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation - https://cup.org/3HMMH51
- @semuhi.bsky.social
#FirstView
Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation - https://cup.org/3HMMH51
- @semuhi.bsky.social
#FirstView
August 26, 2025 at 8:20 AM
#OpenAccess from @govandopp.bsky.social -
Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation - https://cup.org/3HMMH51
- @semuhi.bsky.social
#FirstView
Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation - https://cup.org/3HMMH51
- @semuhi.bsky.social
#FirstView
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
#OpenAccess on #FirstView -
"Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - cup.org/3HMMH51
by @semuhi.bsky.social
"Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - cup.org/3HMMH51
by @semuhi.bsky.social
September 2, 2025 at 1:00 PM
#OpenAccess on #FirstView -
"Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - cup.org/3HMMH51
by @semuhi.bsky.social
"Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - cup.org/3HMMH51
by @semuhi.bsky.social
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
#Throwback to #GMF2025: @semuhi.bsky.social shares key insights from the IDOS session on “Rethinking #InformationResilience: Alternative Toolkit, New Alliances” – 🎥 Watch the full video on #YouTube: youtu.be/ls2-vkxc-S4
September 1, 2025 at 2:46 PM
#Throwback to #GMF2025: @semuhi.bsky.social shares key insights from the IDOS session on “Rethinking #InformationResilience: Alternative Toolkit, New Alliances” – 🎥 Watch the full video on #YouTube: youtu.be/ls2-vkxc-S4
#Humanitarian #aid is taking a backseat to #geopolitics. As an act of solidarity, it helped win hearts & minds. But would it have the same effect linked to strategic interests? The results are surprisingly positive! Thanks Diplomatisches Magazin for featuring my research. @idos-research.bsky.social
July 8, 2025 at 2:11 PM
#Humanitarian #aid is taking a backseat to #geopolitics. As an act of solidarity, it helped win hearts & minds. But would it have the same effect linked to strategic interests? The results are surprisingly positive! Thanks Diplomatisches Magazin for featuring my research. @idos-research.bsky.social
What a day! @deutschewelle.bsky.social Global Media Forum is just another reason to love this beautiful city of #Bonn. We organized a panel on how to foster cross-sectoral collaborations with businesses to protect information integrity. I have three key takeaways from our conversations:
July 8, 2025 at 11:13 AM
What a day! @deutschewelle.bsky.social Global Media Forum is just another reason to love this beautiful city of #Bonn. We organized a panel on how to foster cross-sectoral collaborations with businesses to protect information integrity. I have three key takeaways from our conversations:
Are you #GMF25 in Bonn? Then join us for our panel in the afternoon! We have an amazing line-up!
How can businesses help protect the information space? How did the US funding cuts impact collaborations? How to improve the audience perception of toolkit?
@news.dw.com @idos-research.bsky.social
How can businesses help protect the information space? How did the US funding cuts impact collaborations? How to improve the audience perception of toolkit?
@news.dw.com @idos-research.bsky.social
July 7, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Are you #GMF25 in Bonn? Then join us for our panel in the afternoon! We have an amazing line-up!
How can businesses help protect the information space? How did the US funding cuts impact collaborations? How to improve the audience perception of toolkit?
@news.dw.com @idos-research.bsky.social
How can businesses help protect the information space? How did the US funding cuts impact collaborations? How to improve the audience perception of toolkit?
@news.dw.com @idos-research.bsky.social
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
Join us at @news.dw.com #GMF25! Our panel will focus on #InformationResilience: How can we defend #InformationIntegrity amid rising geopolitical tension, funding cuts & shrinking civic space? What new alliances can help overcome these challenges?
gmf-event.com/event/progra... semuhi.bsky.social
gmf-event.com/event/progra... semuhi.bsky.social
July 3, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Join us at @news.dw.com #GMF25! Our panel will focus on #InformationResilience: How can we defend #InformationIntegrity amid rising geopolitical tension, funding cuts & shrinking civic space? What new alliances can help overcome these challenges?
gmf-event.com/event/progra... semuhi.bsky.social
gmf-event.com/event/progra... semuhi.bsky.social
Why #democracy needs #business? A strong private sector is key to democratic resilience. But there are risks! It isn't business capture of state but state capture of business that poses the greatest danger to democracy, we argue in
@jodemocracy.bsky.social w/ @lucanway.bsky.social & S. Levitsky.
@jodemocracy.bsky.social w/ @lucanway.bsky.social & S. Levitsky.
July 3, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Why #democracy needs #business? A strong private sector is key to democratic resilience. But there are risks! It isn't business capture of state but state capture of business that poses the greatest danger to democracy, we argue in
@jodemocracy.bsky.social w/ @lucanway.bsky.social & S. Levitsky.
@jodemocracy.bsky.social w/ @lucanway.bsky.social & S. Levitsky.
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
Capitalism is often blamed for democracy’s ills. Yet it is not business capture of the state but rather state capture of business that poses the greatest danger to democracy, argue Semuhi Sinanoglu, Lucan Way, and Steven Levitsky.
"Can Capitalism Save Democracy?"
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
"Can Capitalism Save Democracy?"
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
July 2, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Capitalism is often blamed for democracy’s ills. Yet it is not business capture of the state but rather state capture of business that poses the greatest danger to democracy, argue Semuhi Sinanoglu, Lucan Way, and Steven Levitsky.
"Can Capitalism Save Democracy?"
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
"Can Capitalism Save Democracy?"
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
1. "Can Capitalism Save Democracy?" by
@lucanway.bsky.social @semuhi.bsky.social and #stevenlevitsky
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
@lucanway.bsky.social @semuhi.bsky.social and #stevenlevitsky
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
Project MUSE - Can Capitalism Save Democracy?
muse.jhu.edu
July 2, 2025 at 2:57 PM
1. "Can Capitalism Save Democracy?" by
@lucanway.bsky.social @semuhi.bsky.social and #stevenlevitsky
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
@lucanway.bsky.social @semuhi.bsky.social and #stevenlevitsky
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...