Stefano DellaVigna
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sdellavi.bsky.social
Stefano DellaVigna
@sdellavi.bsky.social
690 followers 34 following 2 posts
Behavioral economists at UC Berkeley
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
evavivalt.bsky.social
🚨 New working paper!

How well do people predict the results of studies?

@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
briannosek.bsky.social
Very interesting work by @evavivalt.bsky.social and @sdellavi.bsky.social. Particularly intriguing is the finding that a surprising negative relationship between confidence and accuracy is accounted for by a subset of persistently overconfident forecasters.
evavivalt.bsky.social Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 3d
🚨 New working paper!

How well do people predict the results of studies?

@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
michaeleddy.bsky.social
Dunning-Kruger effect in practice:

In 53k forecasts across 100 projects, people who are more confident are actually much less accurate.

New 📄 by @evavivalt.bsky.social & @sdellavi.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
gordpennycook.bsky.social
Excited to announce our amazing lineup of speakers for the 2026 JDM preconference at SPSP!

Conference date: Feb 26th
Location: Chicago
Deadline to apply: Oct 23rd.

Application link: spsp.wufoo.com/forms/2026-p...

cc: @sdellavi.bsky.social, @hirshmansam.bsky.social, @vinisingh.bsky.social
September 22, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
socscipredict.bsky.social
📣 Interested in making more forecasts? Want to get paid for doing so? Apply for the SSPP Forecasting Panel! Panelists receive $400 a year + a $300 bonus for high accuracy.

Apply here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/09...

@cega-uc.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social
Apply to Join our SSPP Forecasting Panel 2.0!
Would you like to stay informed about the latest developments in social science research, assess your forecasting accuracy, and receive financial compensation for your participation in the process? Ap...
socialscienceprediction.org
September 4, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Not quite sure how to put it all in words, but I just spent an extraordinary day celebrating my dissertation adviser, Larry Katz. Feeling grateful, proud, and (re-) inspired.

Larry has raised so many extraordinary economists that being in the same room as them was overwhelming.
September 20, 2025 at 1:33 AM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
tedmiguel.bsky.social
Nobel prize winner George Akerlof (my former colleague) on the firing of statistics officials:

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/o...
Opinion | What to Do When the President Acts Like a Five-Year-Old?
www.nytimes.com
August 3, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
alroth.bsky.social
I was the AEA's President Elect as the first Trump term began. We worried about government statistics then, and appointed a committee that included members (such as Google's Chief Economist) who might be in a position to help make reliable statistics available if the government went dark.
#econsky
dynarski.bsky.social Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · Aug 2
Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal
August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations
August 2, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
evavivalt.bsky.social
New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict?

Try your hand at it:
socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social
Forecasting the SSPP Research Results
Increasingly, researchers gather forecasts ex ante about the results of their research studies. Ex post, this allows for a comparison with the results to gauge contributions to the literature. But wha...
socialscienceprediction.org
July 10, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
justinwolfers.bsky.social
I have both *thoughts* and *feelings* about Trump attacking Harvard. And I want to share them with you.
May 24, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
evavivalt.bsky.social
This was a really nicely-done survey - strongly encourage people to check it out!

Congrats to the winners!
May 12, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
dritzwoller.bsky.social
Very excited to share this new working paper, joint with @sdellavi.bsky.social, Guido Imbens, and Woojin Kim
bsky.app/profile/nber...
nber.org NBER @nber.org · Apr 29
The Thresholding Multiple Outcomes method addresses spatial correlation in regressions by using information from additional outcomes to identify correlated locations, from Stefano DellaVigna, Guido Imbens, Woojin Kim, and @dritzwoller.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w33716
May 4, 2025 at 2:04 AM
sdellavi.bsky.social
Lise is a terrific economist with so many ground breaking contributions... as well as one of the most caring and genuine persons you will find. Very well deserved!
March 21, 2025 at 10:17 PM
sdellavi.bsky.social
I finally made the transition from X to here, looking forward to interacting with the econ community here @tedmiguel.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @rthaler.bsky.social @cega-uc.bsky.social @socscipredict.bsky.social
March 5, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna
evavivalt.bsky.social
The Social Science Prediction Platform has a new feature: a leaderboard showcasing those who provided the most forecasts or were the most accurate. Forecasters can opt into displaying their name.

You can also see your own rank if logged in. Check it out! @socscipredict.bsky.social
February 19, 2025 at 9:27 PM