the bad news is Enbridge's latest reporting of natural gas storage levels shows another big drawdown on a level already well below what is typical for the time of year.

Expect pricing to rise significantly if temperatures drop significantly.
2/2

and away goes Darlington 1 on a trip 😞

my basic reporting utilizing only IESO-controlled grid data is at: app.powerbi.com/view...

the more intense report with additional estimates including costs and distributed supply is: app.powerbi.com/view...
5/5

GA=Global Adjustment
defined as the difference between the committed cost of supply and the value recovered in sales on the market. A monthly charge since 2008, I have it trending to be a credit each of these past 2 weeks.
This does remarkable things to consumer rates
4/5

moving to reporting inclusive of estimates on distributed generation, curtailment, and costing...
there is an increase in supply costs due to higher spending on natural gas-fueled generators, but much of that increase is offset by export sales - and more likely to reduce GA

3/5

demand up ~200 GWh over comp week in 2024.
nuclear down that much, hydro down 100 GWh... so gas up ~400 GWh and imports up 100+ GWh

Not shown in this reporting: majority of imports came via Michigan interties, and majority of those looked wheeled through to QC and beyond
2/5

factors driving the market rate higher now include much lower than average storage levels of natural gas at Enbridge's DAWN hub (for this time of year) - as well as still not having availability for Quebec.
those factors and coal could explain imports from MI.

5/5

Large market rate (need to update naming for 2025 from HOEP to Day-ahead ON zone rate) = less cost transfer to class B (small) consumers from exporters and large "Class A" users (which include industry).

4/5

here's a format I've used for a while to summarize generation, cost, and (hugely diminished) curtailment.
While costs are up a little, as is demand, different consumer classes will see much different rate impacts (even if OEB delays them for a year with bad rate setting)
3/5

Imports notably rose, while exports fell (from the comp wk in 2024).
My page estimating what drove exports shows almost all the imports were wheeled through Ontario - which isn't strange.
most imports came from MI, and majority of exports were through interties with Quebec.
2/5

Net exports have grown, which I attribute mostly to the reduced hydro output of neighbouring Quebec.
That export/import change is as much a driver of higher gas use, and emissions, in Ontario's supply mix.
3/3

demand now is similar to what it was in 1989: generation higher.
Another graphic shows only the annual change to 1989. I focus on the sharp increase in fossil(gas) since 2021 headed back to the level of fossil(coal) in 1989, but note what's driving that...

2/3

Ontario’s energy regulator is been making nuclear expensive:
OPG roars to record profits on its nuclear while consumer pricing soars.

open.substack.com/pu...

2/2

Adding in estimates for distributed generators, curtailment and costs shows increased revenue on exported supply largely cancelling out the increased cost from gas generation
this reporting at app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrI...

3/3

YTD notables from the basic data (using IESO GOC hourly data):
2025 is already the record year for supply fueled by natural gas

link to my basic reporting: app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrI...

2/

I tend to defer on the costing of new tech - one person I trust on the costing and FID's is @ember42.bsky.social, and perhaps he has an opinion
Recently Sask Power indicated the GEH SMR will be its first builds, so that strikes me as the next costings to look for.
nth of a kind guesses aren't for me