Scott Luft
@scottluft.bsky.social
Data Manager, Communicator, Advocate for consumers, and nuclear power.
The IESO has released final January global adjustment numbers - and I'm sure the hope is they will remain legendary.
-$494 million, leading to a credit to Class B consumers of $40.62/MWh
I'd predicted $300 million and a $26/MWh class B credit.
these figures are huge...
1/3
-$494 million, leading to a credit to Class B consumers of $40.62/MWh
I'd predicted $300 million and a $26/MWh class B credit.
these figures are huge...
1/3
February 13, 2026 at 8:14 PM
The IESO has released final January global adjustment numbers - and I'm sure the hope is they will remain legendary.
-$494 million, leading to a credit to Class B consumers of $40.62/MWh
I'd predicted $300 million and a $26/MWh class B credit.
these figures are huge...
1/3
-$494 million, leading to a credit to Class B consumers of $40.62/MWh
I'd predicted $300 million and a $26/MWh class B credit.
these figures are huge...
1/3
A summary of annual Ontario/IESO electricity demand by industrial sector.
It could provide context in analyzing claims of spending to address fast growing sectors - such as mining.
OTOH, last year the big growth was in "Other"
It could provide context in analyzing claims of spending to address fast growing sectors - such as mining.
OTOH, last year the big growth was in "Other"
February 13, 2026 at 1:00 PM
A summary of annual Ontario/IESO electricity demand by industrial sector.
It could provide context in analyzing claims of spending to address fast growing sectors - such as mining.
OTOH, last year the big growth was in "Other"
It could provide context in analyzing claims of spending to address fast growing sectors - such as mining.
OTOH, last year the big growth was in "Other"
An annual summary of IESO demand, and est. supply, by their zones.
The big excess supply zone is already Bruce, although less so if viewed in conjunction with the Southwest.
Conversations about supply for Toronto could recognize that zone has long been relatively balanced
The big excess supply zone is already Bruce, although less so if viewed in conjunction with the Southwest.
Conversations about supply for Toronto could recognize that zone has long been relatively balanced
February 12, 2026 at 1:07 PM
An annual summary of IESO demand, and est. supply, by their zones.
The big excess supply zone is already Bruce, although less so if viewed in conjunction with the Southwest.
Conversations about supply for Toronto could recognize that zone has long been relatively balanced
The big excess supply zone is already Bruce, although less so if viewed in conjunction with the Southwest.
Conversations about supply for Toronto could recognize that zone has long been relatively balanced
'merica needs an HR dep't
im🇨🇦o
im🇨🇦o
(Variety) - President Donald Trump posted a racist video to his Truth Social account late Thursday with an AI-generated video of the Obamas as apes.
@variety.com
variety.com/2026/digital...
@variety.com
variety.com/2026/digital...
February 6, 2026 at 2:31 PM
'merica needs an HR dep't
im🇨🇦o
im🇨🇦o
Marco Chown Oved had an article in the National Observor yesterday – sorry, just realized this is in the Globe by a similar person – or maybe just a different pseudonym.
Anyway… I think the answer to the title is “yes”, and I don’t wish to defend OPG, but “in depth”…
1/6
Anyway… I think the answer to the title is “yes”, and I don’t wish to defend OPG, but “in depth”…
1/6
February 6, 2026 at 11:05 AM
Marco Chown Oved had an article in the National Observor yesterday – sorry, just realized this is in the Globe by a similar person – or maybe just a different pseudonym.
Anyway… I think the answer to the title is “yes”, and I don’t wish to defend OPG, but “in depth”…
1/6
Anyway… I think the answer to the title is “yes”, and I don’t wish to defend OPG, but “in depth”…
1/6
I queried Ontario electricity data on costs of supply recovered by sales into the market.
through Feb. 4, 2026 has already seen greater revenues than the total in 4 of the previous 10 years.
This impacts average pricing, but more so on distribution of costs to classes (A and B)
through Feb. 4, 2026 has already seen greater revenues than the total in 4 of the previous 10 years.
This impacts average pricing, but more so on distribution of costs to classes (A and B)
February 5, 2026 at 3:05 PM
I queried Ontario electricity data on costs of supply recovered by sales into the market.
through Feb. 4, 2026 has already seen greater revenues than the total in 4 of the previous 10 years.
This impacts average pricing, but more so on distribution of costs to classes (A and B)
through Feb. 4, 2026 has already seen greater revenues than the total in 4 of the previous 10 years.
This impacts average pricing, but more so on distribution of costs to classes (A and B)
Ontario’s electricity sector elite have chosen today to celebrate the completion of the Darlington Nuclear Generating Station (DNGS), “months ahead of schedule and $150 million under budget.”
I am not celebrating with them.
www.opg.com/stories/...
1/10
I am not celebrating with them.
www.opg.com/stories/...
1/10
Our story | Showing the world what’s possible: Darlington Refurbishment construction completed ahead of schedule, under budget – OPG
Construction on OPG’s Darlington Refurbishment is now complete and the project is set to be delivered ahead of schedule and under budget.
www.opg.com
February 2, 2026 at 6:12 PM
Ontario’s electricity sector elite have chosen today to celebrate the completion of the Darlington Nuclear Generating Station (DNGS), “months ahead of schedule and $150 million under budget.”
I am not celebrating with them.
www.opg.com/stories/...
1/10
I am not celebrating with them.
www.opg.com/stories/...
1/10
Ontario electricity in January (IESO-controlled grid):
ON demand up 2.3% (315 GWh)
down: nuclear (423 GWh), Hydro (220)
up: gas (1,031 GWh)
Net exports between 1.9 and 2 TWh (as usual)
market price up 102.4% (highest since ever)
1/3
ON demand up 2.3% (315 GWh)
down: nuclear (423 GWh), Hydro (220)
up: gas (1,031 GWh)
Net exports between 1.9 and 2 TWh (as usual)
market price up 102.4% (highest since ever)
1/3
February 1, 2026 at 2:25 PM
Ontario electricity in January (IESO-controlled grid):
ON demand up 2.3% (315 GWh)
down: nuclear (423 GWh), Hydro (220)
up: gas (1,031 GWh)
Net exports between 1.9 and 2 TWh (as usual)
market price up 102.4% (highest since ever)
1/3
ON demand up 2.3% (315 GWh)
down: nuclear (423 GWh), Hydro (220)
up: gas (1,031 GWh)
Net exports between 1.9 and 2 TWh (as usual)
market price up 102.4% (highest since ever)
1/3
My estimates of ON electricity's global adjustment - imo, some very big calls.
$-300 million (the hugest credit in history)
$-26/MWh Class B (also a record)
those would beat 2005 records
big prediction:
Class B commodity rate will be lower that Class A rate for 1st time
$-300 million (the hugest credit in history)
$-26/MWh Class B (also a record)
those would beat 2005 records
big prediction:
Class B commodity rate will be lower that Class A rate for 1st time
January 30, 2026 at 3:04 PM
My estimates of ON electricity's global adjustment - imo, some very big calls.
$-300 million (the hugest credit in history)
$-26/MWh Class B (also a record)
those would beat 2005 records
big prediction:
Class B commodity rate will be lower that Class A rate for 1st time
$-300 million (the hugest credit in history)
$-26/MWh Class B (also a record)
those would beat 2005 records
big prediction:
Class B commodity rate will be lower that Class A rate for 1st time
Improvement on Ontario Electricity pricing (DA-OZP), but the IESO forecast would still produce the 6th highest average rate in the market's history - with the top 5 coming in the preceding 5 days.
January 30, 2026 at 2:32 PM
Improvement on Ontario Electricity pricing (DA-OZP), but the IESO forecast would still produce the 6th highest average rate in the market's history - with the top 5 coming in the preceding 5 days.
the good news in Ontario electricity pricing:
the average rate dropped 1/3rd from yesterday to today
the not-so-good news:
today will either be the 4th or the 5th highest rate day in the market's history.
the average rate dropped 1/3rd from yesterday to today
the not-so-good news:
today will either be the 4th or the 5th highest rate day in the market's history.
January 29, 2026 at 9:31 AM
the good news in Ontario electricity pricing:
the average rate dropped 1/3rd from yesterday to today
the not-so-good news:
today will either be the 4th or the 5th highest rate day in the market's history.
the average rate dropped 1/3rd from yesterday to today
the not-so-good news:
today will either be the 4th or the 5th highest rate day in the market's history.
I apologize for joking the yesterday's slight decline in Ontario's electricity rates was good news.
It was only a temporary delay of the guillotine for the few exposed to these rates - which have set a new record today.
It was only a temporary delay of the guillotine for the few exposed to these rates - which have set a new record today.
January 28, 2026 at 2:31 PM
I apologize for joking the yesterday's slight decline in Ontario's electricity rates was good news.
It was only a temporary delay of the guillotine for the few exposed to these rates - which have set a new record today.
It was only a temporary delay of the guillotine for the few exposed to these rates - which have set a new record today.
the good news is that average daily Ontario electricity prices today will be lower than yesterday's record high.
Less good is that this today be the second highest (Sunday was the third highest...)
Bad is natural gas prices for consumers will be headed higher
Less good is that this today be the second highest (Sunday was the third highest...)
Bad is natural gas prices for consumers will be headed higher
January 27, 2026 at 12:59 PM
the good news is that average daily Ontario electricity prices today will be lower than yesterday's record high.
Less good is that this today be the second highest (Sunday was the third highest...)
Bad is natural gas prices for consumers will be headed higher
Less good is that this today be the second highest (Sunday was the third highest...)
Bad is natural gas prices for consumers will be headed higher
good news: Ontario electricity pricing on the day-ahead market are down from yesterday's record high (for a daily average).
Today will only be the second-highest rate day!
(2 days ago was the third...)
...and your gas bills going to go up too
Today will only be the second-highest rate day!
(2 days ago was the third...)
...and your gas bills going to go up too
January 27, 2026 at 12:58 PM
good news: Ontario electricity pricing on the day-ahead market are down from yesterday's record high (for a daily average).
Today will only be the second-highest rate day!
(2 days ago was the third...)
...and your gas bills going to go up too
Today will only be the second-highest rate day!
(2 days ago was the third...)
...and your gas bills going to go up too
The good news is that the average daily gas price today will be lower than yesterday's record high.
Less good is that today will be the second highest (Sunday the third highest).
Bad news for natural gas consumers is your prices will need to head higher soon
Less good is that today will be the second highest (Sunday the third highest).
Bad news for natural gas consumers is your prices will need to head higher soon
January 27, 2026 at 12:28 PM
The good news is that the average daily gas price today will be lower than yesterday's record high.
Less good is that today will be the second highest (Sunday the third highest).
Bad news for natural gas consumers is your prices will need to head higher soon
Less good is that today will be the second highest (Sunday the third highest).
Bad news for natural gas consumers is your prices will need to head higher soon
Reposted by Scott Luft
Currently in the Northeast…
January 26, 2026 at 1:51 PM
Currently in the Northeast…
Reposted by Scott Luft
pretty wild statement re: Republican Chris Madel drop from race for MN governor:
"Saying he cannot support the national GOP's 'stated retribution on citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so."
"Saying he cannot support the national GOP's 'stated retribution on citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so."
January 26, 2026 at 2:14 PM
pretty wild statement re: Republican Chris Madel drop from race for MN governor:
"Saying he cannot support the national GOP's 'stated retribution on citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so."
"Saying he cannot support the national GOP's 'stated retribution on citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so."
My Ontario electricity reporting/estimates now updating through week 4 - which was a big week in 2025, but a cold expensive weekend pushed demand and pricing past even that.
Nuclear was down on the grid - I grudgingly think largely due a Bruce Power choice on outage timing
1/7
Nuclear was down on the grid - I grudgingly think largely due a Bruce Power choice on outage timing
1/7
January 26, 2026 at 2:17 PM
My Ontario electricity reporting/estimates now updating through week 4 - which was a big week in 2025, but a cold expensive weekend pushed demand and pricing past even that.
Nuclear was down on the grid - I grudgingly think largely due a Bruce Power choice on outage timing
1/7
Nuclear was down on the grid - I grudgingly think largely due a Bruce Power choice on outage timing
1/7
Record Ontario daily average electricity pricing yesterday, and to quote another Ontarian,
up
up
up🎶
even huger pricing today
[old record was from the polar vortex winter of 2014]
up
up
up🎶
even huger pricing today
[old record was from the polar vortex winter of 2014]
January 26, 2026 at 9:57 AM
Record Ontario daily average electricity pricing yesterday, and to quote another Ontarian,
up
up
up🎶
even huger pricing today
[old record was from the polar vortex winter of 2014]
up
up
up🎶
even huger pricing today
[old record was from the polar vortex winter of 2014]
Another first!
I noted yesterday that a record was set for generation under the "GAS"* category on the IESO's Ontario electricity grid.
I've run queries and find these 2 record hours for GAS were also the first instances of GAS out-producing NUCLEAR on the IESO grid**
1/2
I noted yesterday that a record was set for generation under the "GAS"* category on the IESO's Ontario electricity grid.
I've run queries and find these 2 record hours for GAS were also the first instances of GAS out-producing NUCLEAR on the IESO grid**
1/2
January 25, 2026 at 10:13 PM
Another first!
I noted yesterday that a record was set for generation under the "GAS"* category on the IESO's Ontario electricity grid.
I've run queries and find these 2 record hours for GAS were also the first instances of GAS out-producing NUCLEAR on the IESO grid**
1/2
I noted yesterday that a record was set for generation under the "GAS"* category on the IESO's Ontario electricity grid.
I've run queries and find these 2 record hours for GAS were also the first instances of GAS out-producing NUCLEAR on the IESO grid**
1/2
as a rule/bias...
when an entity triples spending on a program in 2 short years, and then decrees the performance from its expanding spend as "Exceptional", I assume its conservation/efficiency.
and nonsense
when an entity triples spending on a program in 2 short years, and then decrees the performance from its expanding spend as "Exceptional", I assume its conservation/efficiency.
and nonsense
January 25, 2026 at 7:28 PM
as a rule/bias...
when an entity triples spending on a program in 2 short years, and then decrees the performance from its expanding spend as "Exceptional", I assume its conservation/efficiency.
and nonsense
when an entity triples spending on a program in 2 short years, and then decrees the performance from its expanding spend as "Exceptional", I assume its conservation/efficiency.
and nonsense
Didn't take long for the cold snap to lead to a snap upwards in Ontario electricity pricing.
These hourly prices for Jan. 25 look about 5 times higher than prices during the milder days of early January.
presumably this is driven by natural gas prices
These hourly prices for Jan. 25 look about 5 times higher than prices during the milder days of early January.
presumably this is driven by natural gas prices
January 25, 2026 at 12:39 PM
Didn't take long for the cold snap to lead to a snap upwards in Ontario electricity pricing.
These hourly prices for Jan. 25 look about 5 times higher than prices during the milder days of early January.
presumably this is driven by natural gas prices
These hourly prices for Jan. 25 look about 5 times higher than prices during the milder days of early January.
presumably this is driven by natural gas prices
System operated reports 8,163 MWh of gas from 4-5 pm.
that's the 3rd highest hour for electricity from the "gas" category (includes some oil today!)
Very near the record from Jan. 22, 2014's Polar vortex (8,478 from 7-8 pm).
that's the 3rd highest hour for electricity from the "gas" category (includes some oil today!)
Very near the record from Jan. 22, 2014's Polar vortex (8,478 from 7-8 pm).
January 24, 2026 at 10:44 PM
System operated reports 8,163 MWh of gas from 4-5 pm.
that's the 3rd highest hour for electricity from the "gas" category (includes some oil today!)
Very near the record from Jan. 22, 2014's Polar vortex (8,478 from 7-8 pm).
that's the 3rd highest hour for electricity from the "gas" category (includes some oil today!)
Very near the record from Jan. 22, 2014's Polar vortex (8,478 from 7-8 pm).
In 2025, Ontario’s electricity sector experienced significant changes across demand, pricing, generation mix, and market structure. Electricity demand from the IESO-controlled grid rose by 3.7%, reaching levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.
1/5
1/5
January 24, 2026 at 10:08 PM
In 2025, Ontario’s electricity sector experienced significant changes across demand, pricing, generation mix, and market structure. Electricity demand from the IESO-controlled grid rose by 3.7%, reaching levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.
1/5
1/5