Scott Luft
@scottluft.bsky.social
Data Manager, Communicator, Advocate for consumers, and nuclear power.
Ontario electricity reporting of IESO-controlled grid (Tx) data now through week 51 (ended Dec. 21, 2025)
demand, and market pricing, still higher than since 2008, but moderating along with temps.
high wind and increased gas compensated for lower hydro and nuclear
demand, and market pricing, still higher than since 2008, but moderating along with temps.
high wind and increased gas compensated for lower hydro and nuclear
December 22, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Ontario electricity reporting of IESO-controlled grid (Tx) data now through week 51 (ended Dec. 21, 2025)
demand, and market pricing, still higher than since 2008, but moderating along with temps.
high wind and increased gas compensated for lower hydro and nuclear
demand, and market pricing, still higher than since 2008, but moderating along with temps.
high wind and increased gas compensated for lower hydro and nuclear
good news and bad news for Ontario electricity wholesale rates.
Some good news is a warmer day with good wind had the rates in the day-ahead market well below they $100+/MWh pricing we've been seeing for weeks.
Natural gas pricing at Enbridge's Dawn hub has declined.
1/2
Some good news is a warmer day with good wind had the rates in the day-ahead market well below they $100+/MWh pricing we've been seeing for weeks.
Natural gas pricing at Enbridge's Dawn hub has declined.
1/2
December 18, 2025 at 2:30 PM
good news and bad news for Ontario electricity wholesale rates.
Some good news is a warmer day with good wind had the rates in the day-ahead market well below they $100+/MWh pricing we've been seeing for weeks.
Natural gas pricing at Enbridge's Dawn hub has declined.
1/2
Some good news is a warmer day with good wind had the rates in the day-ahead market well below they $100+/MWh pricing we've been seeing for weeks.
Natural gas pricing at Enbridge's Dawn hub has declined.
1/2
for those dreaming of a nuclear Winter :)
With Point Lepreau starting up in New Brunswick and Bruce 2 now returning to production in Ontario, every reactor in Canada that could be generating power now is.
A little late for the cold - but that's cuz' the cold was early!
With Point Lepreau starting up in New Brunswick and Bruce 2 now returning to production in Ontario, every reactor in Canada that could be generating power now is.
A little late for the cold - but that's cuz' the cold was early!
December 16, 2025 at 4:27 PM
for those dreaming of a nuclear Winter :)
With Point Lepreau starting up in New Brunswick and Bruce 2 now returning to production in Ontario, every reactor in Canada that could be generating power now is.
A little late for the cold - but that's cuz' the cold was early!
With Point Lepreau starting up in New Brunswick and Bruce 2 now returning to production in Ontario, every reactor in Canada that could be generating power now is.
A little late for the cold - but that's cuz' the cold was early!
My Ontario Electricity reporting/estimates now updated through ISO week 50 2025.
Average day-ahead Ontario zonal price was ~$140/MWh - up nearly $100/MWh over comp wk ly.
I have this as an IESO record weekly average rate when weighted to ON demand [treating DA-OZP as HOEP]
1/5
Average day-ahead Ontario zonal price was ~$140/MWh - up nearly $100/MWh over comp wk ly.
I have this as an IESO record weekly average rate when weighted to ON demand [treating DA-OZP as HOEP]
1/5
December 15, 2025 at 4:18 PM
My Ontario Electricity reporting/estimates now updated through ISO week 50 2025.
Average day-ahead Ontario zonal price was ~$140/MWh - up nearly $100/MWh over comp wk ly.
I have this as an IESO record weekly average rate when weighted to ON demand [treating DA-OZP as HOEP]
1/5
Average day-ahead Ontario zonal price was ~$140/MWh - up nearly $100/MWh over comp wk ly.
I have this as an IESO record weekly average rate when weighted to ON demand [treating DA-OZP as HOEP]
1/5
My weekly Ontario electricity reporting/estimates, and commentary.
The basic IESO data shows steep declines in output from nuclear (-273 GWh), hydro (-124 GWh) and wind (-83 GWh), all while provincial demand on the IESO grid rose ~ 170 GWh.
Gas fueled 363 GWh more supply
1/5
The basic IESO data shows steep declines in output from nuclear (-273 GWh), hydro (-124 GWh) and wind (-83 GWh), all while provincial demand on the IESO grid rose ~ 170 GWh.
Gas fueled 363 GWh more supply
1/5
November 24, 2025 at 4:32 PM
My weekly Ontario electricity reporting/estimates, and commentary.
The basic IESO data shows steep declines in output from nuclear (-273 GWh), hydro (-124 GWh) and wind (-83 GWh), all while provincial demand on the IESO grid rose ~ 170 GWh.
Gas fueled 363 GWh more supply
1/5
The basic IESO data shows steep declines in output from nuclear (-273 GWh), hydro (-124 GWh) and wind (-83 GWh), all while provincial demand on the IESO grid rose ~ 170 GWh.
Gas fueled 363 GWh more supply
1/5
A long-term illustration of annual generation, and demand, statistics for Ontario's electricity system can provide context to frame opinions stated as facts in media both old and new.
I've updated this graphic with 2024 data.
1/3
I've updated this graphic with 2024 data.
1/3
November 21, 2025 at 4:36 PM
A long-term illustration of annual generation, and demand, statistics for Ontario's electricity system can provide context to frame opinions stated as facts in media both old and new.
I've updated this graphic with 2024 data.
1/3
I've updated this graphic with 2024 data.
1/3
My new article argues that to the extent nuclear contributes to the OEB's extraordinary November rate hike, it is mostly due to the OEB's poor management of regulating rates for OPG's nuclear assets.
Rates for nuclear next year are based on far too little production forecast
1/2
Rates for nuclear next year are based on far too little production forecast
1/2
November 16, 2025 at 5:36 PM
My new article argues that to the extent nuclear contributes to the OEB's extraordinary November rate hike, it is mostly due to the OEB's poor management of regulating rates for OPG's nuclear assets.
Rates for nuclear next year are based on far too little production forecast
1/2
Rates for nuclear next year are based on far too little production forecast
1/2
Notes from my Ontario electricity reporting/estimates now through week 45.
compared to last week supply from nuclear and hydro was down ~190 GWh while demand rose 190 GWh and so supply fueled by natural gas climbed 400 GWh.
Market rate a record high for week 45's
1/
compared to last week supply from nuclear and hydro was down ~190 GWh while demand rose 190 GWh and so supply fueled by natural gas climbed 400 GWh.
Market rate a record high for week 45's
1/
November 10, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Notes from my Ontario electricity reporting/estimates now through week 45.
compared to last week supply from nuclear and hydro was down ~190 GWh while demand rose 190 GWh and so supply fueled by natural gas climbed 400 GWh.
Market rate a record high for week 45's
1/
compared to last week supply from nuclear and hydro was down ~190 GWh while demand rose 190 GWh and so supply fueled by natural gas climbed 400 GWh.
Market rate a record high for week 45's
1/
the defining trend of the past few years in Ontario electricity exports, and imports, is the nearing 12 TWh/year change with Quebec.
Michigan is also notable as it is not pulling as much from Ontario as it did in the past decade and a half.
Michigan is also notable as it is not pulling as much from Ontario as it did in the past decade and a half.
November 7, 2025 at 10:05 AM
the defining trend of the past few years in Ontario electricity exports, and imports, is the nearing 12 TWh/year change with Quebec.
Michigan is also notable as it is not pulling as much from Ontario as it did in the past decade and a half.
Michigan is also notable as it is not pulling as much from Ontario as it did in the past decade and a half.
Reposted by Scott Luft
It wasn't fake. It was edited. But Reagan really did spend a five-minute speech – an April 25, 1987, national radio address that the Reagan Library has published on YouTube – to rail against tariffs. It was a full-throated expression of support for free and fair trade.
https://cnn.it/4o5pBGv
https://cnn.it/4o5pBGv
October 24, 2025 at 3:00 PM
It wasn't fake. It was edited. But Reagan really did spend a five-minute speech – an April 25, 1987, national radio address that the Reagan Library has published on YouTube – to rail against tariffs. It was a full-throated expression of support for free and fair trade.
https://cnn.it/4o5pBGv
https://cnn.it/4o5pBGv
Bruce Power to recognize Bruce C ain't happening within the next 15 months.
www.ctvnews.ca/london/artic...
www.ctvnews.ca/london/artic...
Bruce Power to decide fate of proposed Bruce C project by end of 2026
On July 5, 2023, Bruce Power received the green light to start planning for the construction of four or five more nuclear reactors at their sprawling Bruce County compound. Two years later, the dream ...
www.ctvnews.ca
October 23, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Bruce Power to recognize Bruce C ain't happening within the next 15 months.
www.ctvnews.ca/london/artic...
www.ctvnews.ca/london/artic...
Reposted by Scott Luft
Lots of balcony solar discussion these days. Interesting idea but price in US is still much higher than grid scale. At 3% discount rate and 15% cap fac, the 200W system mentioned has LCOE of $0.13 if it last 25 years, $0.22 if it lasts 10 years.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Column | Can’t put solar panels on your roof? Plug-in ‘balcony solar’ may be for you.
Balcony solar promises to cut energy costs and grid reliance for renters and apartment-dwellers. I did a trial run at my home.
www.washingtonpost.com
September 12, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Lots of balcony solar discussion these days. Interesting idea but price in US is still much higher than grid scale. At 3% discount rate and 15% cap fac, the 200W system mentioned has LCOE of $0.13 if it last 25 years, $0.22 if it lasts 10 years.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Reposted by Scott Luft
New piece up in the newsletter this morning on a new Siena poll of New Yorkers.
Turns Kathy Hochul's plan for a new nuclear plant is popular.
kaufman.substack.com/p/poll-half-...
Turns Kathy Hochul's plan for a new nuclear plant is popular.
kaufman.substack.com/p/poll-half-...
Poll: Half of New Yorkers support building a new nuclear plant
And just 26% oppose the project, a new Siena Poll shows.
kaufman.substack.com
August 14, 2025 at 11:35 AM
New piece up in the newsletter this morning on a new Siena poll of New Yorkers.
Turns Kathy Hochul's plan for a new nuclear plant is popular.
kaufman.substack.com/p/poll-half-...
Turns Kathy Hochul's plan for a new nuclear plant is popular.
kaufman.substack.com/p/poll-half-...
IESO May global adjustment estimates:
$143.7/MWh (class B)
$1.155 Billion
I did not do estimates as the introduction of market renewal on May 1 blew up my routines.
and apparently the IESO's.
spectacularly high values not seen since COVID hit.
1/2
$143.7/MWh (class B)
$1.155 Billion
I did not do estimates as the introduction of market renewal on May 1 blew up my routines.
and apparently the IESO's.
spectacularly high values not seen since COVID hit.
1/2
May 30, 2025 at 11:37 PM
IESO May global adjustment estimates:
$143.7/MWh (class B)
$1.155 Billion
I did not do estimates as the introduction of market renewal on May 1 blew up my routines.
and apparently the IESO's.
spectacularly high values not seen since COVID hit.
1/2
$143.7/MWh (class B)
$1.155 Billion
I did not do estimates as the introduction of market renewal on May 1 blew up my routines.
and apparently the IESO's.
spectacularly high values not seen since COVID hit.
1/2
My latest:
- cutting commentary on Ontario's electricity system going-ons
- should into the void
- both
\_(ツ)_/
coldair.substack.com...
- cutting commentary on Ontario's electricity system going-ons
- should into the void
- both
\_(ツ)_/
coldair.substack.com...
Reviewing Ontario's Electricity System Operator
the IESO's 2024 Year in Review is disconcertingly bad.
coldair.substack.com
May 5, 2025 at 1:06 PM
My latest:
- cutting commentary on Ontario's electricity system going-ons
- should into the void
- both
\_(ツ)_/
coldair.substack.com...
- cutting commentary on Ontario's electricity system going-ons
- should into the void
- both
\_(ツ)_/
coldair.substack.com...
Interesting time-staggered debate-of-sorts on whether or not Ontario's technically public Ontario Power Generation has chosen the correct nuclear reactor technology in undertaking the first new power reactor build in over 3 decades.
1/3
1/3
April 24, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Interesting time-staggered debate-of-sorts on whether or not Ontario's technically public Ontario Power Generation has chosen the correct nuclear reactor technology in undertaking the first new power reactor build in over 3 decades.
1/3
1/3
My Ontario electricity reporting now updated through week 16.
This is a model for expensive electricity for Ontario households.
rate (HOEP) dropping near 3 cents/kWh while exports surge: for every 5 kWh consumed in the province, 1.1 was sent away for little.
1/4
This is a model for expensive electricity for Ontario households.
rate (HOEP) dropping near 3 cents/kWh while exports surge: for every 5 kWh consumed in the province, 1.1 was sent away for little.
1/4
April 21, 2025 at 3:07 PM
My Ontario electricity reporting now updated through week 16.
This is a model for expensive electricity for Ontario households.
rate (HOEP) dropping near 3 cents/kWh while exports surge: for every 5 kWh consumed in the province, 1.1 was sent away for little.
1/4
This is a model for expensive electricity for Ontario households.
rate (HOEP) dropping near 3 cents/kWh while exports surge: for every 5 kWh consumed in the province, 1.1 was sent away for little.
1/4
Manitoba's Premier Wab Kinew letting contracts with US end at expiry: willing to set aside some of the recovered capacity to service parts of Nunavut if feds will partner on transmission costs
gifting: www.theglobeandmail....
gifting: www.theglobeandmail....
Manitoba freezes some electricity exports to U.S., plans to turn northward
Premier Wab Kinew says the contracts are set to expire at the end of this month and amount to 500 megawatts of power that will now be available for Canada
www.theglobeandmail.com
April 14, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Manitoba's Premier Wab Kinew letting contracts with US end at expiry: willing to set aside some of the recovered capacity to service parts of Nunavut if feds will partner on transmission costs
gifting: www.theglobeandmail....
gifting: www.theglobeandmail....
Reposted by Scott Luft
INSANE market action right now. Market exploded higher on a headline attributed to Kevin Hassett. And now nobody can figure out where it came from and the markets are diving again.
An 8% surge and then a 3.5% plunge in a matter of seconds
An 8% surge and then a 3.5% plunge in a matter of seconds
April 7, 2025 at 2:25 PM
INSANE market action right now. Market exploded higher on a headline attributed to Kevin Hassett. And now nobody can figure out where it came from and the markets are diving again.
An 8% surge and then a 3.5% plunge in a matter of seconds
An 8% surge and then a 3.5% plunge in a matter of seconds
big if true (imo): "Hydro‑Québec’s main transmission line into New England, known as the Phase II line, stopped exporting any meaningful amount of power two days after President Donald Trump’s tariff on Canadian imports went into effect."
In New England, Canadian hydropower has slowed to an ominous trickle.
Whether due to drought, prices, or politics, the weekslong disappearance of Canadian hydropower from New England’s grid exposes risks for the region.
grist.org/energy/in-ne...
#Climate #NewEngland #Bospoli #Massachusetts
Whether due to drought, prices, or politics, the weekslong disappearance of Canadian hydropower from New England’s grid exposes risks for the region.
grist.org/energy/in-ne...
#Climate #NewEngland #Bospoli #Massachusetts
In New England, Canadian hydropower has slowed to an ominous trickle
Whether due to drought, prices, or politics, the weekslong disappearance of Canadian hydropower from New England’s grid exposes risks for the region.
grist.org
April 6, 2025 at 8:31 PM
big if true (imo): "Hydro‑Québec’s main transmission line into New England, known as the Phase II line, stopped exporting any meaningful amount of power two days after President Donald Trump’s tariff on Canadian imports went into effect."
"UNAUTHORIZED MOORING OF BOATS IS PROHIBITED
MNR"
...and foolish given the dilapidated condition of the [former?] structure.
MNR"
...and foolish given the dilapidated condition of the [former?] structure.
April 6, 2025 at 1:25 PM
"UNAUTHORIZED MOORING OF BOATS IS PROHIBITED
MNR"
...and foolish given the dilapidated condition of the [former?] structure.
MNR"
...and foolish given the dilapidated condition of the [former?] structure.
Reposted by Scott Luft
NEW 🧵
A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far:
1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively.
These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.
A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far:
1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively.
These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.
April 4, 2025 at 12:51 PM
NEW 🧵
A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far:
1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively.
These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.
A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far:
1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively.
These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.
Big SMR News from nuclear Ontario: "The Commission has authorized Ontario Power Generation to construct one BWRX-300 reactor at the Darlington New Nuclear Project site. "
www.canada.ca/en/nuc...
www.canada.ca/en/nuc...
Commission authorizes Ontario Power Generation Inc. to construct 1 BWRX-300 reactor at the Darlington New Nuclear Project site - Canada.ca
Today, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) announced the Commission’s decision to issue a power reactor construction licence to Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPG) to construct 1 General Electric Hitachi BWRX-300 reactor at its Darlington New Nuclear Project (DNNP) site in Clarington, Ontario.
www.canada.ca
April 4, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Big SMR News from nuclear Ontario: "The Commission has authorized Ontario Power Generation to construct one BWRX-300 reactor at the Darlington New Nuclear Project site. "
www.canada.ca/en/nuc...
www.canada.ca/en/nuc...
Beautiful sunny morning here and I've been fortunate to see all of it the rail company knows as CP was setting a world record for excruciating noise from a train around 1:50 - 2:15 in the dead of night, after causing me long excursions through blocking road twice yesterday
1/6
1/6
April 1, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Beautiful sunny morning here and I've been fortunate to see all of it the rail company knows as CP was setting a world record for excruciating noise from a train around 1:50 - 2:15 in the dead of night, after causing me long excursions through blocking road twice yesterday
1/6
1/6
new biz idea: PedEx💡
Just had a FedEx package delivered by e-bike ✨
Please clap
Please clap
March 26, 2025 at 7:11 PM
new biz idea: PedEx💡