Sascha Ostanina
@saschaostanina.bsky.social
Political & Security Risk Analyst Specialised in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Moldova, & the South Caucasus
#UK's nuclear deterrent relies on submarines armed w/ Trident ballistic missiles, leased from the #US & regularly returned to the US base in King’s Bay, Georgia for maintenance. Missile testing is carried out under US supervision at Cape Canaveral, Florida: www.ft.com/content/1503...
March 10, 2025 at 8:27 AM
#UK's nuclear deterrent relies on submarines armed w/ Trident ballistic missiles, leased from the #US & regularly returned to the US base in King’s Bay, Georgia for maintenance. Missile testing is carried out under US supervision at Cape Canaveral, Florida: www.ft.com/content/1503...
#SouthKorea: Vessels belonging to #Russia's Pacific Fleet were detected moving about 1,500 #NorthKorea|n special forces troops to Vladivostok for training for combat in #Urkaine. The troops have been supplied with 🇷🇺 military uniforms, weapons, & fake IDs: www.reuters.com/world/south-...
October 18, 2024 at 11:31 AM
#SouthKorea: Vessels belonging to #Russia's Pacific Fleet were detected moving about 1,500 #NorthKorea|n special forces troops to Vladivostok for training for combat in #Urkaine. The troops have been supplied with 🇷🇺 military uniforms, weapons, & fake IDs: www.reuters.com/world/south-...
The IMF will become the first major international financial body to send its official mission to #Russia since the invasion of #Ukraine in 2022. An IMF delegation will visit Moscow for meetings with Russian officials until Oct. 1.
www.reuters.com/world/imf-co...
www.reuters.com/world/imf-co...
September 4, 2024 at 6:39 AM
The IMF will become the first major international financial body to send its official mission to #Russia since the invasion of #Ukraine in 2022. An IMF delegation will visit Moscow for meetings with Russian officials until Oct. 1.
www.reuters.com/world/imf-co...
www.reuters.com/world/imf-co...
These #Russia|n military installations are legitimate targets for #Ukraine's strikes. Yet, 🇺🇦 is being artificially restricted from targeting them.
"Hundreds of known 🇷🇺 military & paramilitary objects in 🇷🇺 are in range of 🇺🇦 ATACMS" - @TheStudyofWar
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
"Hundreds of known 🇷🇺 military & paramilitary objects in 🇷🇺 are in range of 🇺🇦 ATACMS" - @TheStudyofWar
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
August 28, 2024 at 8:47 AM
These #Russia|n military installations are legitimate targets for #Ukraine's strikes. Yet, 🇺🇦 is being artificially restricted from targeting them.
"Hundreds of known 🇷🇺 military & paramilitary objects in 🇷🇺 are in range of 🇺🇦 ATACMS" - @TheStudyofWar
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
"Hundreds of known 🇷🇺 military & paramilitary objects in 🇷🇺 are in range of 🇺🇦 ATACMS" - @TheStudyofWar
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
Exports from the #EU with #Kazakhstan, #Armenia, #Azerbaijan, #Georgia, #Turkey and the other #CentralAsia countries increased by €46bn in 2023, up 50% from 2021. That was equivalent to 3/4 of the drop in Europe’s exports to #Russia from 2021 to 2023
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
August 20, 2024 at 12:15 PM
Exports from the #EU with #Kazakhstan, #Armenia, #Azerbaijan, #Georgia, #Turkey and the other #CentralAsia countries increased by €46bn in 2023, up 50% from 2021. That was equivalent to 3/4 of the drop in Europe’s exports to #Russia from 2021 to 2023
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
Thanks to #Ukraine's Kursk offensive, #Germany has realised that using 🇩🇪-made weapons inside #Russia doesn’t make 🇩🇪 a party to the war. It’s the perfect time for Chancellor Scholz to reconsider and send Taurus missiles to 🇺🇦. No, this doesn't require sending 🇩🇪 soldiers to 🇺🇦
August 16, 2024 at 11:32 AM
Thanks to #Ukraine's Kursk offensive, #Germany has realised that using 🇩🇪-made weapons inside #Russia doesn’t make 🇩🇪 a party to the war. It’s the perfect time for Chancellor Scholz to reconsider and send Taurus missiles to 🇺🇦. No, this doesn't require sending 🇩🇪 soldiers to 🇺🇦
#Germany's Cologne-Wahn military base next to #Cologne airport has been sealed off & 5,500 of soldiers & civilians working there advised not to drink tap water after someone forced their way into the premises. Authorities investigate possible sabotage
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
August 14, 2024 at 1:26 PM
#Germany's Cologne-Wahn military base next to #Cologne airport has been sealed off & 5,500 of soldiers & civilians working there advised not to drink tap water after someone forced their way into the premises. Authorities investigate possible sabotage
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
#Russia has trained its navy to target sites deep inside Europe w/ missiles that can carry conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. 🇷🇺's 2008-14 files include a target list in Europe & highlight the advantages of using ☢️strikes at an early stage
www.ft.com/content/237e...
www.ft.com/content/237e...
August 13, 2024 at 10:04 AM
#Russia has trained its navy to target sites deep inside Europe w/ missiles that can carry conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. 🇷🇺's 2008-14 files include a target list in Europe & highlight the advantages of using ☢️strikes at an early stage
www.ft.com/content/237e...
www.ft.com/content/237e...
#Turkey is the 2nd biggest source, behind #China, of high-priority, US-origin goods sent to #Russia, according to the #US Treasury. Turkey’s exports of military-linked goods to Russia or its intermediaries registered $85mn in H1 2024 ($27mn in H1 2022)
www.ft.com/content/e7e4...
www.ft.com/content/e7e4...
August 7, 2024 at 8:44 AM
#Turkey is the 2nd biggest source, behind #China, of high-priority, US-origin goods sent to #Russia, according to the #US Treasury. Turkey’s exports of military-linked goods to Russia or its intermediaries registered $85mn in H1 2024 ($27mn in H1 2022)
www.ft.com/content/e7e4...
www.ft.com/content/e7e4...
The missing middle of technology investment—insufficient funding for commercial production—is evident in each and every one of these failures, but the loss of expertise is an added dimension
www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/30/1...
www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/30/1...
August 6, 2024 at 12:16 PM
The missing middle of technology investment—insufficient funding for commercial production—is evident in each and every one of these failures, but the loss of expertise is an added dimension
www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/30/1...
www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/30/1...
Bloomberg:🚨The first delivery of the F-16 fighter jets from NATO allies has arrived in Ukraine
July 31, 2024 at 6:39 PM
Bloomberg:🚨The first delivery of the F-16 fighter jets from NATO allies has arrived in Ukraine
The #US is not ready for a major war, says a bipartisan commission. In 2018, the previous commission had warned that America “might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against #China or #Russia”. This time the language is starker
www.economist.com/united-state...
www.economist.com/united-state...
July 30, 2024 at 12:27 PM
The #US is not ready for a major war, says a bipartisan commission. In 2018, the previous commission had warned that America “might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against #China or #Russia”. This time the language is starker
www.economist.com/united-state...
www.economist.com/united-state...
Despite Western sanctions, Russia still procures components from abroad & enhance its weapons production. Read @rusi.bsky.social's paper by Jack Watling & Gary Somerville on replacing scattered sanctions with a coordinated disruption of Russian procurement schemes
static.rusi.org/methodology-...
static.rusi.org/methodology-...
July 23, 2024 at 8:54 AM
Despite Western sanctions, Russia still procures components from abroad & enhance its weapons production. Read @rusi.bsky.social's paper by Jack Watling & Gary Somerville on replacing scattered sanctions with a coordinated disruption of Russian procurement schemes
static.rusi.org/methodology-...
static.rusi.org/methodology-...
The casualty rate is growing exponentially:
'When Ukraine was firing 10,000 shells per day, 35-45 🇺🇦soldiers were killed daily & about 250-300 were wounded. When the daily fire fell to half that, over 100 soldiers were killed per day & at least 1,000 were wounded' www.reuters.com/investigates...
'When Ukraine was firing 10,000 shells per day, 35-45 🇺🇦soldiers were killed daily & about 250-300 were wounded. When the daily fire fell to half that, over 100 soldiers were killed per day & at least 1,000 were wounded' www.reuters.com/investigates...
July 22, 2024 at 3:00 PM
The casualty rate is growing exponentially:
'When Ukraine was firing 10,000 shells per day, 35-45 🇺🇦soldiers were killed daily & about 250-300 were wounded. When the daily fire fell to half that, over 100 soldiers were killed per day & at least 1,000 were wounded' www.reuters.com/investigates...
'When Ukraine was firing 10,000 shells per day, 35-45 🇺🇦soldiers were killed daily & about 250-300 were wounded. When the daily fire fell to half that, over 100 soldiers were killed per day & at least 1,000 were wounded' www.reuters.com/investigates...
#Russia’s biggest emerging problem is with tanks & infantry fighting vehicles, crucial to any offensive ground operations. At current rates of attrition,🇷🇺 tank & IFV refurbishment from storage will have reached a “critical point of exhaustion” by H2 2025
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
July 17, 2024 at 5:39 PM
#Russia’s biggest emerging problem is with tanks & infantry fighting vehicles, crucial to any offensive ground operations. At current rates of attrition,🇷🇺 tank & IFV refurbishment from storage will have reached a “critical point of exhaustion” by H2 2025
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
#China and #Russia have conducted 66 joint #military exercises since 2003. This trend of more frequent & complex land, air, sea, & cyber exercises, often near disputed territories, raises serious questions about global security
www.iss.europa.eu/content/rehe...
www.iss.europa.eu/content/rehe...
July 15, 2024 at 6:59 PM
#China and #Russia have conducted 66 joint #military exercises since 2003. This trend of more frequent & complex land, air, sea, & cyber exercises, often near disputed territories, raises serious questions about global security
www.iss.europa.eu/content/rehe...
www.iss.europa.eu/content/rehe...
Can you guess who this other key NATO ally is, @POTUS?
“Britain has to convince France and another key @NATO ally before it can allow Ukraine to fire its Storm Shadow cruise missiles at targets inside Russia as the UK is unable to act alone, sources claim” www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
“Britain has to convince France and another key @NATO ally before it can allow Ukraine to fire its Storm Shadow cruise missiles at targets inside Russia as the UK is unable to act alone, sources claim” www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
July 13, 2024 at 7:14 AM
Can you guess who this other key NATO ally is, @POTUS?
“Britain has to convince France and another key @NATO ally before it can allow Ukraine to fire its Storm Shadow cruise missiles at targets inside Russia as the UK is unable to act alone, sources claim” www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
“Britain has to convince France and another key @NATO ally before it can allow Ukraine to fire its Storm Shadow cruise missiles at targets inside Russia as the UK is unable to act alone, sources claim” www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
#France, #Germany, #Italy & #Poland agreed to develop ground-launched cruise missiles with a range beyond 500 km (310 miles). France suggested basing the weapon on its existing naval cruise missile MdCN, made by the producer of Taurus, Storm Shadow & Scalp
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
July 12, 2024 at 7:23 AM
#France, #Germany, #Italy & #Poland agreed to develop ground-launched cruise missiles with a range beyond 500 km (310 miles). France suggested basing the weapon on its existing naval cruise missile MdCN, made by the producer of Taurus, Storm Shadow & Scalp
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
#Russia's missiles, such as the one that destroyed a Kyiv children’s hospital, relies on western-designed components, showing the Kremlin’s success at evading sanctions. Russia is making nearly 8 times more Kh-101s missiles than prior to the 2022 invasion
www.ft.com/content/ef46...
www.ft.com/content/ef46...
July 10, 2024 at 7:03 AM
#Russia's missiles, such as the one that destroyed a Kyiv children’s hospital, relies on western-designed components, showing the Kremlin’s success at evading sanctions. Russia is making nearly 8 times more Kh-101s missiles than prior to the 2022 invasion
www.ft.com/content/ef46...
www.ft.com/content/ef46...
Europeans have limited options for procuring indigenous off-the-shelf surface-to-surface missile capabilities (SSM). The rush of new orders has exceeded supplies. Of the 7 NATO members that have procured SSMs since 02.2022, 4 orders were for Lockheed Martin’s GMLRS round www.iiss.org/online-analy...
July 6, 2024 at 8:17 PM
Europeans have limited options for procuring indigenous off-the-shelf surface-to-surface missile capabilities (SSM). The rush of new orders has exceeded supplies. Of the 7 NATO members that have procured SSMs since 02.2022, 4 orders were for Lockheed Martin’s GMLRS round www.iiss.org/online-analy...
An @ecfr poll:
-Europeans do see a ➕correlation b/w larger mil.aid to #Ukraine & 🇺🇦 mil.victory
-A majority of Germans is for a mil.aid boost to 🇺🇦
- Excl. @AfD & @Buendnis_SahraW, the majority of other parties’ voters supports Europe helping 🇺🇦 fight to regain its territories
ecfr.eu/publication/...
-Europeans do see a ➕correlation b/w larger mil.aid to #Ukraine & 🇺🇦 mil.victory
-A majority of Germans is for a mil.aid boost to 🇺🇦
- Excl. @AfD & @Buendnis_SahraW, the majority of other parties’ voters supports Europe helping 🇺🇦 fight to regain its territories
ecfr.eu/publication/...
July 5, 2024 at 4:32 PM
An @ecfr poll:
-Europeans do see a ➕correlation b/w larger mil.aid to #Ukraine & 🇺🇦 mil.victory
-A majority of Germans is for a mil.aid boost to 🇺🇦
- Excl. @AfD & @Buendnis_SahraW, the majority of other parties’ voters supports Europe helping 🇺🇦 fight to regain its territories
ecfr.eu/publication/...
-Europeans do see a ➕correlation b/w larger mil.aid to #Ukraine & 🇺🇦 mil.victory
-A majority of Germans is for a mil.aid boost to 🇺🇦
- Excl. @AfD & @Buendnis_SahraW, the majority of other parties’ voters supports Europe helping 🇺🇦 fight to regain its territories
ecfr.eu/publication/...
On paper, European NATO allies have 1.9mn troops, seemingly enough to counter Russia (1.1mn soldiers & 1.5mn reservists). In reality, they would struggle to commit any more than 300,000 troops to a conflict. Even then, that would take months of preparation www.ft.com/content/f9dc...
June 28, 2024 at 12:16 PM
On paper, European NATO allies have 1.9mn troops, seemingly enough to counter Russia (1.1mn soldiers & 1.5mn reservists). In reality, they would struggle to commit any more than 300,000 troops to a conflict. Even then, that would take months of preparation www.ft.com/content/f9dc...
Two armed attacks took place in the cities of Derbent & Makhachkala in #Russia’s Dagestan. At least two police officers were killed, seven others were wounded in the two incidents.
crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2024/...
crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2024/...
June 23, 2024 at 5:48 PM
Two armed attacks took place in the cities of Derbent & Makhachkala in #Russia’s Dagestan. At least two police officers were killed, seven others were wounded in the two incidents.
crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2024/...
crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2024/...
The European Commission roposed a 2025 EU budget. In total, the presented budget - that must be approved by the European Parliament and the 27 member states - is worth €199.7 billion, plus €72 billion from the post-pandemic recovery fund.
June 20, 2024 at 5:22 PM
The European Commission roposed a 2025 EU budget. In total, the presented budget - that must be approved by the European Parliament and the 27 member states - is worth €199.7 billion, plus €72 billion from the post-pandemic recovery fund.