Sascha Ostanina
@saschaostanina.bsky.social
Political & Security Risk Analyst Specialised in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Moldova, & the South Caucasus
#UK's nuclear deterrent relies on submarines armed w/ Trident ballistic missiles, leased from the #US & regularly returned to the US base in King’s Bay, Georgia for maintenance. Missile testing is carried out under US supervision at Cape Canaveral, Florida: www.ft.com/content/1503...
March 10, 2025 at 8:27 AM
#UK's nuclear deterrent relies on submarines armed w/ Trident ballistic missiles, leased from the #US & regularly returned to the US base in King’s Bay, Georgia for maintenance. Missile testing is carried out under US supervision at Cape Canaveral, Florida: www.ft.com/content/1503...
#Europe won't have a seat at the table for #Ukraine peace talks, Donald Trump's envoy Kellogg said, after the #US sent a questionnaire to European capitals to ask what they could contribute to security guarantees for Ukraine: www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Zelenskiy calls for European army to deter Russia, earn US respect
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Saturday for the creation of a European army, arguing the continent could no longer be sure of protection from the United States and would only get respect from Washington with a strong military.
www.reuters.com
February 15, 2025 at 8:19 PM
#Europe won't have a seat at the table for #Ukraine peace talks, Donald Trump's envoy Kellogg said, after the #US sent a questionnaire to European capitals to ask what they could contribute to security guarantees for Ukraine: www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Reposted by Sascha Ostanina
Im Umfeld von Selenskyj wächst der Eindruck, dass sich Trump als Vermittler und nicht als Verbündeter der Ukraine sieht. Wenn sich der wichtigste Verbündete aus Eigennutz selbst zum Schiedsrichter ernennt, droht eine herbeigeführte Katastrophe. Weil Russland immer Regeln bricht.
February 12, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Im Umfeld von Selenskyj wächst der Eindruck, dass sich Trump als Vermittler und nicht als Verbündeter der Ukraine sieht. Wenn sich der wichtigste Verbündete aus Eigennutz selbst zum Schiedsrichter ernennt, droht eine herbeigeführte Katastrophe. Weil Russland immer Regeln bricht.
In #Ukraine, #Russia occupies 41 coal deposits (60% of reserves), nine oil deposits (11%), 27 areas with gas deposits (about 20%), 42% of metal deposits, & 33% of rare earth metals & minerals. In other words, resources worth $12.5T are under occupation: ubn.news/almost-half-...
Almost half of Ukraine’s mineral deposits are occupied or already owned.
Almost half of Ukraine’s mineral deposits are occupied or already owned. - Economy
ubn.news
February 11, 2025 at 1:17 PM
In #Ukraine, #Russia occupies 41 coal deposits (60% of reserves), nine oil deposits (11%), 27 areas with gas deposits (about 20%), 42% of metal deposits, & 33% of rare earth metals & minerals. In other words, resources worth $12.5T are under occupation: ubn.news/almost-half-...
Reposted by Sascha Ostanina
Just have the EU issue Eurobonds and have the EU issue the damn contracts. It’s all very straightforward.
European leaders are avoiding the obvious way forward because their MFAs/MODs don’t want to cede authority to Brussels. All very petty.
European leaders are avoiding the obvious way forward because their MFAs/MODs don’t want to cede authority to Brussels. All very petty.
🇪🇺 promises more defence spending, but orders are still missing. 🇫🇮 155mm artillery producer Patria has been waiting for contracts since last spring. Once contracts arrive, delivery will still take a year:
www.euractiv.com/section/defe...
www.euractiv.com/section/defe...
On defence, Europe's talk is still cheap
Promises of increased spending will not solve the problem industries have been raising for months as the contracts are still lacking.
www.euractiv.com
February 3, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Just have the EU issue Eurobonds and have the EU issue the damn contracts. It’s all very straightforward.
European leaders are avoiding the obvious way forward because their MFAs/MODs don’t want to cede authority to Brussels. All very petty.
European leaders are avoiding the obvious way forward because their MFAs/MODs don’t want to cede authority to Brussels. All very petty.
🇪🇺 promises more defence spending, but orders are still missing. 🇫🇮 155mm artillery producer Patria has been waiting for contracts since last spring. Once contracts arrive, delivery will still take a year:
www.euractiv.com/section/defe...
www.euractiv.com/section/defe...
On defence, Europe's talk is still cheap
Promises of increased spending will not solve the problem industries have been raising for months as the contracts are still lacking.
www.euractiv.com
February 3, 2025 at 9:43 AM
🇪🇺 promises more defence spending, but orders are still missing. 🇫🇮 155mm artillery producer Patria has been waiting for contracts since last spring. Once contracts arrive, delivery will still take a year:
www.euractiv.com/section/defe...
www.euractiv.com/section/defe...
Since 2022, 🇬🇧& 🇩🇪 Storm Shadow & Taurus production lines remain idle. 🇫🇷 maintained a SCALP-EG production line running at <100 units/year. Instead of ramping up, Europe relied on 🇺🇸, but Biden slowed missile deliveries to 🇺🇦, & Trump may not restart them: theins.ru/en/opinion/f...
No Washington, no problem: How Europe can support Ukraine and ensure its own security without U.S. aid
A few days ago, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered a 90-day suspension of funding for most foreign aid programs, including assistance to Ukraine. If the Trump administration completely halts ...
theins.ru
February 2, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Since 2022, 🇬🇧& 🇩🇪 Storm Shadow & Taurus production lines remain idle. 🇫🇷 maintained a SCALP-EG production line running at <100 units/year. Instead of ramping up, Europe relied on 🇺🇸, but Biden slowed missile deliveries to 🇺🇦, & Trump may not restart them: theins.ru/en/opinion/f...
Reposted by Sascha Ostanina
It's taken Russians two years to advance 10km (6miles) from Bakhmut to the town of Chasiv Yar.
After a thriving pre-war population of 13,000, the town now resembles everything Russia has ever touched, with only 600 residents somehow clinging to life.
This is the Russian world
After a thriving pre-war population of 13,000, the town now resembles everything Russia has ever touched, with only 600 residents somehow clinging to life.
This is the Russian world
January 31, 2025 at 8:56 AM
It's taken Russians two years to advance 10km (6miles) from Bakhmut to the town of Chasiv Yar.
After a thriving pre-war population of 13,000, the town now resembles everything Russia has ever touched, with only 600 residents somehow clinging to life.
This is the Russian world
After a thriving pre-war population of 13,000, the town now resembles everything Russia has ever touched, with only 600 residents somehow clinging to life.
This is the Russian world
#SouthKorea: Vessels belonging to #Russia's Pacific Fleet were detected moving about 1,500 #NorthKorea|n special forces troops to Vladivostok for training for combat in #Urkaine. The troops have been supplied with 🇷🇺 military uniforms, weapons, & fake IDs: www.reuters.com/world/south-...
October 18, 2024 at 11:31 AM
#SouthKorea: Vessels belonging to #Russia's Pacific Fleet were detected moving about 1,500 #NorthKorea|n special forces troops to Vladivostok for training for combat in #Urkaine. The troops have been supplied with 🇷🇺 military uniforms, weapons, & fake IDs: www.reuters.com/world/south-...
The IMF will become the first major international financial body to send its official mission to #Russia since the invasion of #Ukraine in 2022. An IMF delegation will visit Moscow for meetings with Russian officials until Oct. 1.
www.reuters.com/world/imf-co...
www.reuters.com/world/imf-co...
September 4, 2024 at 6:39 AM
The IMF will become the first major international financial body to send its official mission to #Russia since the invasion of #Ukraine in 2022. An IMF delegation will visit Moscow for meetings with Russian officials until Oct. 1.
www.reuters.com/world/imf-co...
www.reuters.com/world/imf-co...
The @EU_Commission is considering postponing setting out plans for its €1.2 trillion 7-year budget until after #Germany's 2025 election to gauge the preferences of the new 🇩🇪 government on such sensitive questions as issuing common debt to fund 🇪🇺 defence
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
EU Commission mulls delaying budget proposal until after German election
Officials also think that time would be too short to submit plan before July 2025 deadline.
www.politico.eu
September 3, 2024 at 8:21 AM
The @EU_Commission is considering postponing setting out plans for its €1.2 trillion 7-year budget until after #Germany's 2025 election to gauge the preferences of the new 🇩🇪 government on such sensitive questions as issuing common debt to fund 🇪🇺 defence
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Former #Italy PM #MarioDraghi urges boosting EU defence by increasing access to EU cash, easing merger rules regardless of competition concerns, prioritising European solutions, and establishing a centralised EU procurement agency: www.politico.eu/article/mari...
Defense firms need full access to EU cash as Putin haunts Europe, Draghi says
Looming threats must spark major rethink of European defense policy, according to draft of new report seen by POLITICO.
www.politico.eu
September 2, 2024 at 12:28 PM
Former #Italy PM #MarioDraghi urges boosting EU defence by increasing access to EU cash, easing merger rules regardless of competition concerns, prioritising European solutions, and establishing a centralised EU procurement agency: www.politico.eu/article/mari...
These #Russia|n military installations are legitimate targets for #Ukraine's strikes. Yet, 🇺🇦 is being artificially restricted from targeting them.
"Hundreds of known 🇷🇺 military & paramilitary objects in 🇷🇺 are in range of 🇺🇦 ATACMS" - @TheStudyofWar
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
"Hundreds of known 🇷🇺 military & paramilitary objects in 🇷🇺 are in range of 🇺🇦 ATACMS" - @TheStudyofWar
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
August 28, 2024 at 8:47 AM
These #Russia|n military installations are legitimate targets for #Ukraine's strikes. Yet, 🇺🇦 is being artificially restricted from targeting them.
"Hundreds of known 🇷🇺 military & paramilitary objects in 🇷🇺 are in range of 🇺🇦 ATACMS" - @TheStudyofWar
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
"Hundreds of known 🇷🇺 military & paramilitary objects in 🇷🇺 are in range of 🇺🇦 ATACMS" - @TheStudyofWar
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
Russian oligarch Fridman has filed a $16bn claim against Luxembourg over its decision to freeze his assets after he was placed on an EU sanctions list. His legal team includes Cherie Blair, the wife of former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair
www.politico.eu/article/mikh...
www.politico.eu/article/mikh...
Russian oligarch files $16B claim against Luxembourg over frozen assets
Mikhail Fridman was removed from the EU’s sanctions list after a legal challenge.
www.politico.eu
August 20, 2024 at 1:39 PM
Russian oligarch Fridman has filed a $16bn claim against Luxembourg over its decision to freeze his assets after he was placed on an EU sanctions list. His legal team includes Cherie Blair, the wife of former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair
www.politico.eu/article/mikh...
www.politico.eu/article/mikh...
Exports from the #EU with #Kazakhstan, #Armenia, #Azerbaijan, #Georgia, #Turkey and the other #CentralAsia countries increased by €46bn in 2023, up 50% from 2021. That was equivalent to 3/4 of the drop in Europe’s exports to #Russia from 2021 to 2023
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
August 20, 2024 at 12:15 PM
Exports from the #EU with #Kazakhstan, #Armenia, #Azerbaijan, #Georgia, #Turkey and the other #CentralAsia countries increased by €46bn in 2023, up 50% from 2021. That was equivalent to 3/4 of the drop in Europe’s exports to #Russia from 2021 to 2023
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
Thanks to #Ukraine's Kursk offensive, #Germany has realised that using 🇩🇪-made weapons inside #Russia doesn’t make 🇩🇪 a party to the war. It’s the perfect time for Chancellor Scholz to reconsider and send Taurus missiles to 🇺🇦. No, this doesn't require sending 🇩🇪 soldiers to 🇺🇦
August 16, 2024 at 11:32 AM
Thanks to #Ukraine's Kursk offensive, #Germany has realised that using 🇩🇪-made weapons inside #Russia doesn’t make 🇩🇪 a party to the war. It’s the perfect time for Chancellor Scholz to reconsider and send Taurus missiles to 🇺🇦. No, this doesn't require sending 🇩🇪 soldiers to 🇺🇦
Ukrainian troops are still getting outfired by Russian artillery by a ratio of about 8 to 1. That's down from about 20 to 1 before Congress passed the $60 billion U.S. military aid bill for #Ukraine in June, Ukrainian officials said.
foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/14/u...
foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/14/u...
What Is Ukraine’s Goal in Kursk?
Ukraine is making gains on Russian soil. But is Kyiv losing troops it can’t replace?
foreignpolicy.com
August 16, 2024 at 11:31 AM
Ukrainian troops are still getting outfired by Russian artillery by a ratio of about 8 to 1. That's down from about 20 to 1 before Congress passed the $60 billion U.S. military aid bill for #Ukraine in June, Ukrainian officials said.
foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/14/u...
foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/14/u...
#Germany's Cologne-Wahn military base next to #Cologne airport has been sealed off & 5,500 of soldiers & civilians working there advised not to drink tap water after someone forced their way into the premises. Authorities investigate possible sabotage
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
August 14, 2024 at 1:26 PM
#Germany's Cologne-Wahn military base next to #Cologne airport has been sealed off & 5,500 of soldiers & civilians working there advised not to drink tap water after someone forced their way into the premises. Authorities investigate possible sabotage
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
#Russia has trained its navy to target sites deep inside Europe w/ missiles that can carry conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. 🇷🇺's 2008-14 files include a target list in Europe & highlight the advantages of using ☢️strikes at an early stage
www.ft.com/content/237e...
www.ft.com/content/237e...
August 13, 2024 at 10:04 AM
#Russia has trained its navy to target sites deep inside Europe w/ missiles that can carry conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. 🇷🇺's 2008-14 files include a target list in Europe & highlight the advantages of using ☢️strikes at an early stage
www.ft.com/content/237e...
www.ft.com/content/237e...
#Germany’s government could take stakes in arms-makers & defence projects that it deems strategically important - already allowed in principle - more frequently, according to a draft paper written by the economy and defence ministries. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Berlin defence strategy eyes stakes in arms companies, report says
The German government could take a stake in arms-makers and defence projects in "strategic cases", according to a draft paper written by the economy and defence ministries, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Thursday.
www.reuters.com
August 12, 2024 at 9:09 AM
#Germany’s government could take stakes in arms-makers & defence projects that it deems strategically important - already allowed in principle - more frequently, according to a draft paper written by the economy and defence ministries. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Reposted by Sascha Ostanina
Germany is to permanently station a liaison officer in the US’ Indo-Pacific Command (nice job, as based in Hawaii)
table.media/security/new...
table.media/security/new...
Bundeswehr mit Verbindungsoffizier dauerhaft im Pazifik vertreten
Pistorius bemüht sich auf seiner Indopazifik-Reise, den Partnern ein nachhaltig hinterlegtes Engagement Deutschlands zu signalisieren.
table.media
August 7, 2024 at 8:29 AM
Germany is to permanently station a liaison officer in the US’ Indo-Pacific Command (nice job, as based in Hawaii)
table.media/security/new...
table.media/security/new...
#Turkey is the 2nd biggest source, behind #China, of high-priority, US-origin goods sent to #Russia, according to the #US Treasury. Turkey’s exports of military-linked goods to Russia or its intermediaries registered $85mn in H1 2024 ($27mn in H1 2022)
www.ft.com/content/e7e4...
www.ft.com/content/e7e4...
August 7, 2024 at 8:44 AM
#Turkey is the 2nd biggest source, behind #China, of high-priority, US-origin goods sent to #Russia, according to the #US Treasury. Turkey’s exports of military-linked goods to Russia or its intermediaries registered $85mn in H1 2024 ($27mn in H1 2022)
www.ft.com/content/e7e4...
www.ft.com/content/e7e4...
The missing middle of technology investment—insufficient funding for commercial production—is evident in each and every one of these failures, but the loss of expertise is an added dimension
www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/30/1...
www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/30/1...
August 6, 2024 at 12:16 PM
The missing middle of technology investment—insufficient funding for commercial production—is evident in each and every one of these failures, but the loss of expertise is an added dimension
www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/30/1...
www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/30/1...
This summer, #Russia’s air force parked dozens of glide-bomb carriers, Su-34s, (out of 100 in service) in open at Voronezh Malshevo air base just 160km from #Ukraine. The Ukrainians pleaded for permission to fire ATACMs at the base. The US said no
www.forbes.com/sites/davida...
www.forbes.com/sites/davida...
Ukraine Had A Chance To Blow Up Russia’s Best Warplanes On The Tarmac. The White House Said No—And Now It’s Too Late.
Ukraine is still hitting Russian airfields, but only with less destructive drones.
www.forbes.com
August 6, 2024 at 12:15 PM
This summer, #Russia’s air force parked dozens of glide-bomb carriers, Su-34s, (out of 100 in service) in open at Voronezh Malshevo air base just 160km from #Ukraine. The Ukrainians pleaded for permission to fire ATACMs at the base. The US said no
www.forbes.com/sites/davida...
www.forbes.com/sites/davida...
As the Franco-German Main Ground Combat System has shifted its delivery date from 2040 to 2050, if not beyond, Europe’s two main heavy-armour manufacturers, Rheinmetall and KNDS, are touting at least five main battle tank designs to fill the gap
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Europe’s heavy-metal options
European heavy-armour manufacturers are pursuing at least five different Main Battle Tank designs, offering users crewed- and uncrewed-turret interim options as the arrival of the next generation slips toward the mid-century.
www.iiss.org
August 5, 2024 at 4:44 PM
As the Franco-German Main Ground Combat System has shifted its delivery date from 2040 to 2050, if not beyond, Europe’s two main heavy-armour manufacturers, Rheinmetall and KNDS, are touting at least five main battle tank designs to fill the gap
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
www.iiss.org/online-analy...