Ghost of Kyiv
@samvydav24.bsky.social
Ukrainian-American focused on the War in Ukraine until this terrible conflict's conclusion. Fundraising for Amicus Ukraine NGO.
The final figures for January should move quite a bit, remember the tax revenue comes in at the end of the month. Also last year's January spending was over 4 trillion. I'm taking a wait and see approach, picture is still not clear.
February 2, 2026 at 8:50 PM
The final figures for January should move quite a bit, remember the tax revenue comes in at the end of the month. Also last year's January spending was over 4 trillion. I'm taking a wait and see approach, picture is still not clear.
Alex Pretti was an ICU nurse, an avid mountain biker (like me) and by all accounts a really good dude. Just like in Ukraine, they're sending their worst to kill our best. World gone mad.
January 25, 2026 at 12:47 AM
Alex Pretti was an ICU nurse, an avid mountain biker (like me) and by all accounts a really good dude. Just like in Ukraine, they're sending their worst to kill our best. World gone mad.
Under normal circumstances, not president or political party would pursue something that has 14% approval rating. The fact that Trumpers are pushing this so hard means that approval ratings are irrelevant to them and they don't care about elections.
January 18, 2026 at 5:40 PM
Under normal circumstances, not president or political party would pursue something that has 14% approval rating. The fact that Trumpers are pushing this so hard means that approval ratings are irrelevant to them and they don't care about elections.
I am as skeptical as anyone of Trump, but this is a fundamentally dishonest description of what the data is showing. Crude oil and oil product revenues are the lowest they've been since the beginning of the war and Urals discount is up since beginning of sanctions.
January 14, 2026 at 5:09 PM
I am as skeptical as anyone of Trump, but this is a fundamentally dishonest description of what the data is showing. Crude oil and oil product revenues are the lowest they've been since the beginning of the war and Urals discount is up since beginning of sanctions.
Men only want one thing and it's disgusting.
January 11, 2026 at 3:25 PM
Men only want one thing and it's disgusting.
Rapidly entering "fuck all of y'all" territory here.
January 5, 2026 at 1:22 AM
Rapidly entering "fuck all of y'all" territory here.
Congrats to all the fucking idiots who actually believed this bullshit.
January 3, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Congrats to all the fucking idiots who actually believed this bullshit.
З новим роком друзі! Happy New Year friends. May 2026 be the year when we turn the tide for good!
January 1, 2026 at 3:31 AM
З новим роком друзі! Happy New Year friends. May 2026 be the year when we turn the tide for good!
Here's one trend from this year I'd love to continue.
December 31, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Here's one trend from this year I'd love to continue.
I mean just look at this place. So tranquil.
December 19, 2025 at 2:27 PM
I mean just look at this place. So tranquil.
Had to go back and dig up my facebook post from November 2016. None of this is surprising to those of us who've experienced actual totalitarianism, or really were just paying attention with open eyes.
December 18, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Had to go back and dig up my facebook post from November 2016. None of this is surprising to those of us who've experienced actual totalitarianism, or really were just paying attention with open eyes.
While I am trying to maintain some level of anonymity, I just want to be clear. It was all obvious in 2015/2016. All you had to do is open your eyes and use your ears. It's truly sad how many of my fellow diaspora Jews fell for the shtick because "he supports Israel"
December 18, 2025 at 5:47 PM
While I am trying to maintain some level of anonymity, I just want to be clear. It was all obvious in 2015/2016. All you had to do is open your eyes and use your ears. It's truly sad how many of my fellow diaspora Jews fell for the shtick because "he supports Israel"
This article made me dig up an old Facebook post I made on the eve of the 2016 elections. Unfortunately, too much of it holds up today. For those of us who have lived in totalitarian regimes or know our history, the signs of Trump's white nationalist authoritarianism were plain to see:
December 18, 2025 at 5:44 PM
This article made me dig up an old Facebook post I made on the eve of the 2016 elections. Unfortunately, too much of it holds up today. For those of us who have lived in totalitarian regimes or know our history, the signs of Trump's white nationalist authoritarianism were plain to see:
Russian oil is being sold at the lowest level since the beginning of the war.
December 16, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Russian oil is being sold at the lowest level since the beginning of the war.
Brent crude is selling below $60 for the first time in nearly 5 years. Which means russian Urals oil is selling below $40. So that's nice.
December 16, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Brent crude is selling below $60 for the first time in nearly 5 years. Which means russian Urals oil is selling below $40. So that's nice.
Anyway, Brent is hovering close to a 5 year low, and with rapid adoption of EVs in China/Europe/SE Asia, I don't see oil demand spiking any time soon. Also too, Brent Urals spread is at around $23, so do the math.
December 11, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Anyway, Brent is hovering close to a 5 year low, and with rapid adoption of EVs in China/Europe/SE Asia, I don't see oil demand spiking any time soon. Also too, Brent Urals spread is at around $23, so do the math.
And expenditures (down 12%!!). So while the overall deficit only increased by a marginal 86 billion rubles, that is being driven by a reduction of spending exclusively.
On the whole, you can see that the Russian budget is doing much, much worse than previous years, with the crucia December to come.
On the whole, you can see that the Russian budget is doing much, much worse than previous years, with the crucia December to come.
December 9, 2025 at 1:18 PM
And expenditures (down 12%!!). So while the overall deficit only increased by a marginal 86 billion rubles, that is being driven by a reduction of spending exclusively.
On the whole, you can see that the Russian budget is doing much, much worse than previous years, with the crucia December to come.
On the whole, you can see that the Russian budget is doing much, much worse than previous years, with the crucia December to come.
Revenues are flat (up .7%) while expenditures are up 12.5%.
Now, trendlines. First 4 columns are total monthly revenues, oil and gas revenues, non oil gas revenues and expenditures. Next one is monthly deficit/surplus.
What jumps out is the drop in oil and gas revenues (34% yoy!)
Now, trendlines. First 4 columns are total monthly revenues, oil and gas revenues, non oil gas revenues and expenditures. Next one is monthly deficit/surplus.
What jumps out is the drop in oil and gas revenues (34% yoy!)
December 9, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Revenues are flat (up .7%) while expenditures are up 12.5%.
Now, trendlines. First 4 columns are total monthly revenues, oil and gas revenues, non oil gas revenues and expenditures. Next one is monthly deficit/surplus.
What jumps out is the drop in oil and gas revenues (34% yoy!)
Now, trendlines. First 4 columns are total monthly revenues, oil and gas revenues, non oil gas revenues and expenditures. Next one is monthly deficit/surplus.
What jumps out is the drop in oil and gas revenues (34% yoy!)
Ok the russian budget figure for November are out, so let's take a closer look. Borrowing graphics from Istrebin's telegram to go over topline figures and then check into some trend.
Top line: the deficit stands at 4.28 trillion compared to .36 trillion at this time last year.
Top line: the deficit stands at 4.28 trillion compared to .36 trillion at this time last year.
December 9, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Ok the russian budget figure for November are out, so let's take a closer look. Borrowing graphics from Istrebin's telegram to go over topline figures and then check into some trend.
Top line: the deficit stands at 4.28 trillion compared to .36 trillion at this time last year.
Top line: the deficit stands at 4.28 trillion compared to .36 trillion at this time last year.
This is a confusing graph, but worth digging into. The left axis is the spread between Urals and Brent (ie discount), represented by the bar graph. The right axis is the dollar price per barrel, represented by the two line graphs.
Bottom line- Urals oil sold for $44 a barrel in November.
Bottom line- Urals oil sold for $44 a barrel in November.
December 7, 2025 at 3:06 PM
This is a confusing graph, but worth digging into. The left axis is the spread between Urals and Brent (ie discount), represented by the bar graph. The right axis is the dollar price per barrel, represented by the two line graphs.
Bottom line- Urals oil sold for $44 a barrel in November.
Bottom line- Urals oil sold for $44 a barrel in November.
Kyiv School of Economics is projecting a 7.8 trillion ruble deficit for russia for 2025. That seems about right. Something to keep in mind when the November figures come out a few days from now.
December 2, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Kyiv School of Economics is projecting a 7.8 trillion ruble deficit for russia for 2025. That seems about right. Something to keep in mind when the November figures come out a few days from now.