Sam Portillo
@samrportillo.bsky.social
Pol comms in Wales. Formerly South Wales Argus and MA News Journalism at Cardiff University. All posts in personal capacity / views mine own!
Fi hefyd! If Trump says we’re bigly respected it must be true
May 8, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Fi hefyd! If Trump says we’re bigly respected it must be true
How does 30% rack up against Plaid’s historic peaks? Is it a record high?
Wondering what their ceiling is.
Wondering what their ceiling is.
May 7, 2025 at 9:32 PM
How does 30% rack up against Plaid’s historic peaks? Is it a record high?
Wondering what their ceiling is.
Wondering what their ceiling is.
Very astute analysis. Enjoyed reading this 👏
April 22, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Very astute analysis. Enjoyed reading this 👏
Scenario 5 - Conservative Collapse
What if Reform gain 3% more in vote share at the expense of the Tories?
In this case, Reform could reach 31 seats, while Tories manage just EIGHT. Not enough for right wing coalition.
Labour and Plaid joint-second with 27 seats - so could form coalition.
What if Reform gain 3% more in vote share at the expense of the Tories?
In this case, Reform could reach 31 seats, while Tories manage just EIGHT. Not enough for right wing coalition.
Labour and Plaid joint-second with 27 seats - so could form coalition.
April 10, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Scenario 5 - Conservative Collapse
What if Reform gain 3% more in vote share at the expense of the Tories?
In this case, Reform could reach 31 seats, while Tories manage just EIGHT. Not enough for right wing coalition.
Labour and Plaid joint-second with 27 seats - so could form coalition.
What if Reform gain 3% more in vote share at the expense of the Tories?
In this case, Reform could reach 31 seats, while Tories manage just EIGHT. Not enough for right wing coalition.
Labour and Plaid joint-second with 27 seats - so could form coalition.
Scenario 4 - Reform Win Over Nationalists
What if Reform extend their appeal among 'Welsh' identifying voters? Here we boost their vote share to 27% at the expense of Labour and Plaid.
Reform could reach 30 seats, five more than runner-up Labour.
Still not enough for majority even with Tories.
What if Reform extend their appeal among 'Welsh' identifying voters? Here we boost their vote share to 27% at the expense of Labour and Plaid.
Reform could reach 30 seats, five more than runner-up Labour.
Still not enough for majority even with Tories.
April 10, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Scenario 4 - Reform Win Over Nationalists
What if Reform extend their appeal among 'Welsh' identifying voters? Here we boost their vote share to 27% at the expense of Labour and Plaid.
Reform could reach 30 seats, five more than runner-up Labour.
Still not enough for majority even with Tories.
What if Reform extend their appeal among 'Welsh' identifying voters? Here we boost their vote share to 27% at the expense of Labour and Plaid.
Reform could reach 30 seats, five more than runner-up Labour.
Still not enough for majority even with Tories.
Scenario 3 - Plaid Win Over Progressives
In this scenario, we're giving Plaid +3% vote share, taking them to 27%, at expense of Labour and Lib Dems.
Plaid +2 seats
Tories +1
Lib Dems -1
Labour -2
Despite no extra seats, this would make Reform biggest party with just 24% of vote. But no majority.
In this scenario, we're giving Plaid +3% vote share, taking them to 27%, at expense of Labour and Lib Dems.
Plaid +2 seats
Tories +1
Lib Dems -1
Labour -2
Despite no extra seats, this would make Reform biggest party with just 24% of vote. But no majority.
April 10, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Scenario 3 - Plaid Win Over Progressives
In this scenario, we're giving Plaid +3% vote share, taking them to 27%, at expense of Labour and Lib Dems.
Plaid +2 seats
Tories +1
Lib Dems -1
Labour -2
Despite no extra seats, this would make Reform biggest party with just 24% of vote. But no majority.
In this scenario, we're giving Plaid +3% vote share, taking them to 27%, at expense of Labour and Lib Dems.
Plaid +2 seats
Tories +1
Lib Dems -1
Labour -2
Despite no extra seats, this would make Reform biggest party with just 24% of vote. But no majority.