Sam Portillo
@samrportillo.bsky.social
Pol comms in Wales. Formerly South Wales Argus and MA News Journalism at Cardiff University. All posts in personal capacity / views mine own!
Proud to live in a big and highly respected country
May 8, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Proud to live in a big and highly respected country
I have been “Riverminded” by CapCut… these features were free before #BlackMirror
May 1, 2025 at 10:43 AM
I have been “Riverminded” by CapCut… these features were free before #BlackMirror
Glad to be Welsh sometimes (most the time)
April 28, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Glad to be Welsh sometimes (most the time)
I’m all for football analysis but seeing more and more ridiculous posts like this where people mistake fancy words for thoughtful analysis
Heliocentric attacks 🤣
Heliocentric attacks 🤣
April 15, 2025 at 5:04 AM
I’m all for football analysis but seeing more and more ridiculous posts like this where people mistake fancy words for thoughtful analysis
Heliocentric attacks 🤣
Heliocentric attacks 🤣
Not quite Glastonbury is it
April 14, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Not quite Glastonbury is it
Can’t believe I predicted the plot of #DoctorWho
April 12, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Can’t believe I predicted the plot of #DoctorWho
Scenario 5 - Conservative Collapse
What if Reform gain 3% more in vote share at the expense of the Tories?
In this case, Reform could reach 31 seats, while Tories manage just EIGHT. Not enough for right wing coalition.
Labour and Plaid joint-second with 27 seats - so could form coalition.
What if Reform gain 3% more in vote share at the expense of the Tories?
In this case, Reform could reach 31 seats, while Tories manage just EIGHT. Not enough for right wing coalition.
Labour and Plaid joint-second with 27 seats - so could form coalition.
April 10, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Scenario 5 - Conservative Collapse
What if Reform gain 3% more in vote share at the expense of the Tories?
In this case, Reform could reach 31 seats, while Tories manage just EIGHT. Not enough for right wing coalition.
Labour and Plaid joint-second with 27 seats - so could form coalition.
What if Reform gain 3% more in vote share at the expense of the Tories?
In this case, Reform could reach 31 seats, while Tories manage just EIGHT. Not enough for right wing coalition.
Labour and Plaid joint-second with 27 seats - so could form coalition.
Scenario 4 - Reform Win Over Nationalists
What if Reform extend their appeal among 'Welsh' identifying voters? Here we boost their vote share to 27% at the expense of Labour and Plaid.
Reform could reach 30 seats, five more than runner-up Labour.
Still not enough for majority even with Tories.
What if Reform extend their appeal among 'Welsh' identifying voters? Here we boost their vote share to 27% at the expense of Labour and Plaid.
Reform could reach 30 seats, five more than runner-up Labour.
Still not enough for majority even with Tories.
April 10, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Scenario 4 - Reform Win Over Nationalists
What if Reform extend their appeal among 'Welsh' identifying voters? Here we boost their vote share to 27% at the expense of Labour and Plaid.
Reform could reach 30 seats, five more than runner-up Labour.
Still not enough for majority even with Tories.
What if Reform extend their appeal among 'Welsh' identifying voters? Here we boost their vote share to 27% at the expense of Labour and Plaid.
Reform could reach 30 seats, five more than runner-up Labour.
Still not enough for majority even with Tories.
Scenario 3 - Plaid Win Over Progressives
In this scenario, we're giving Plaid +3% vote share, taking them to 27%, at expense of Labour and Lib Dems.
Plaid +2 seats
Tories +1
Lib Dems -1
Labour -2
Despite no extra seats, this would make Reform biggest party with just 24% of vote. But no majority.
In this scenario, we're giving Plaid +3% vote share, taking them to 27%, at expense of Labour and Lib Dems.
Plaid +2 seats
Tories +1
Lib Dems -1
Labour -2
Despite no extra seats, this would make Reform biggest party with just 24% of vote. But no majority.
April 10, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Scenario 3 - Plaid Win Over Progressives
In this scenario, we're giving Plaid +3% vote share, taking them to 27%, at expense of Labour and Lib Dems.
Plaid +2 seats
Tories +1
Lib Dems -1
Labour -2
Despite no extra seats, this would make Reform biggest party with just 24% of vote. But no majority.
In this scenario, we're giving Plaid +3% vote share, taking them to 27%, at expense of Labour and Lib Dems.
Plaid +2 seats
Tories +1
Lib Dems -1
Labour -2
Despite no extra seats, this would make Reform biggest party with just 24% of vote. But no majority.
Scenario 2 - Labour Win Over Reform Supporters
In this scenario, we're giving Labour +2% vote share, taking them to 29% again -- but this time at the expense of Reform.
Cavendish projector still does not think Labour would pick up any extra seats. Reform would lose 1, which the Tories would gain.
In this scenario, we're giving Labour +2% vote share, taking them to 29% again -- but this time at the expense of Reform.
Cavendish projector still does not think Labour would pick up any extra seats. Reform would lose 1, which the Tories would gain.
April 10, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Scenario 2 - Labour Win Over Reform Supporters
In this scenario, we're giving Labour +2% vote share, taking them to 29% again -- but this time at the expense of Reform.
Cavendish projector still does not think Labour would pick up any extra seats. Reform would lose 1, which the Tories would gain.
In this scenario, we're giving Labour +2% vote share, taking them to 29% again -- but this time at the expense of Reform.
Cavendish projector still does not think Labour would pick up any extra seats. Reform would lose 1, which the Tories would gain.
Scenario 1 - Labour Win Over Progressives
In this scenario, we're giving Lab +2% vote share, taking them to 29%, at the expense of Plaid and the Greens.
This would result in no overall changes to the composition of the Senedd.
In this scenario, we're giving Lab +2% vote share, taking them to 29%, at the expense of Plaid and the Greens.
This would result in no overall changes to the composition of the Senedd.
April 10, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Scenario 1 - Labour Win Over Progressives
In this scenario, we're giving Lab +2% vote share, taking them to 29%, at the expense of Plaid and the Greens.
This would result in no overall changes to the composition of the Senedd.
In this scenario, we're giving Lab +2% vote share, taking them to 29%, at the expense of Plaid and the Greens.
This would result in no overall changes to the composition of the Senedd.
Scenario 0 - Current Polling
Latest from @survation.bsky.social shows Lab with 27% of vote. Plaid and Reform joint second on 24%.
This could translate into Labour being the largest party (28 seats), followed by Reform (27), then Plaid (24).
Labour + Plaid = 52 seats, majority. Reform opposition.
Latest from @survation.bsky.social shows Lab with 27% of vote. Plaid and Reform joint second on 24%.
This could translate into Labour being the largest party (28 seats), followed by Reform (27), then Plaid (24).
Labour + Plaid = 52 seats, majority. Reform opposition.
April 10, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Scenario 0 - Current Polling
Latest from @survation.bsky.social shows Lab with 27% of vote. Plaid and Reform joint second on 24%.
This could translate into Labour being the largest party (28 seats), followed by Reform (27), then Plaid (24).
Labour + Plaid = 52 seats, majority. Reform opposition.
Latest from @survation.bsky.social shows Lab with 27% of vote. Plaid and Reform joint second on 24%.
This could translate into Labour being the largest party (28 seats), followed by Reform (27), then Plaid (24).
Labour + Plaid = 52 seats, majority. Reform opposition.
I get it, you’re angry… promise to restore your security… my approach not glamorous but how I do business…
The Starmer/McSweeney pitch on immigration (published in the Mail)
The Starmer/McSweeney pitch on immigration (published in the Mail)
March 31, 2025 at 7:31 AM
I get it, you’re angry… promise to restore your security… my approach not glamorous but how I do business…
The Starmer/McSweeney pitch on immigration (published in the Mail)
The Starmer/McSweeney pitch on immigration (published in the Mail)
There must be a funny caption for this I just can’t think of it
March 20, 2025 at 6:43 PM
There must be a funny caption for this I just can’t think of it
Percentile rankings v other full-backs over the past 365 days (FBRef)
March 12, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Percentile rankings v other full-backs over the past 365 days (FBRef)
This concept art for Manchester United's new 100,000-capacity stadium is so unrealistic. Look at the scoreboard! 🤣😜
March 11, 2025 at 11:38 AM
This concept art for Manchester United's new 100,000-capacity stadium is so unrealistic. Look at the scoreboard! 🤣😜
Doorstep democracy in Danescourt 📍
Llawer o gefnogaeth i’r gynghorydd @phjenkins.bsky.social ac Aelod Seneddol Alex Barros-Curtis
Llawer o gefnogaeth i’r gynghorydd @phjenkins.bsky.social ac Aelod Seneddol Alex Barros-Curtis
March 8, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Doorstep democracy in Danescourt 📍
Llawer o gefnogaeth i’r gynghorydd @phjenkins.bsky.social ac Aelod Seneddol Alex Barros-Curtis
Llawer o gefnogaeth i’r gynghorydd @phjenkins.bsky.social ac Aelod Seneddol Alex Barros-Curtis
Small peak for ‘pancake recipe’ searches at 7am this morning before the big one at 5pm
March 4, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Small peak for ‘pancake recipe’ searches at 7am this morning before the big one at 5pm