Sam Kuhn
@samrkuhn.bsky.social
Economist writing about the labor market on https://recruitonomics.com/ and #rstats fan
Likewise, the 12-month change in nonfarm payrolls is at its weakest spot since 2011
June 6, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Likewise, the 12-month change in nonfarm payrolls is at its weakest spot since 2011
A larger share of Canadian households fear they may lose their job in the next 12 months than compared to the peak of the pandemic
April 18, 2025 at 2:02 PM
A larger share of Canadian households fear they may lose their job in the next 12 months than compared to the peak of the pandemic
🚨 JPMorgan recession risk odds now at 60%
April 3, 2025 at 11:13 PM
🚨 JPMorgan recession risk odds now at 60%
Gold adjusted GDP now still tracking negative
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
March 31, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Gold adjusted GDP now still tracking negative
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
March 22, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Next years inflation expectations are back to Oct '22
March 14, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Next years inflation expectations are back to Oct '22
Consumers have boosted growth significantly the past three years, this is a big warning sign that households are reacting in real-time to uncertainty and drawing back spend
March 12, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Consumers have boosted growth significantly the past three years, this is a big warning sign that households are reacting in real-time to uncertainty and drawing back spend
Second: Visa's Spending Momentum Index - tracking consumer's spending habits across discretionary and nondiscretionary categories dropped significantly in Feb as well, indicating a consumer that is rapidly reigning in spending habits
usa.visa.com/partner-with...
usa.visa.com/partner-with...
March 12, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Second: Visa's Spending Momentum Index - tracking consumer's spending habits across discretionary and nondiscretionary categories dropped significantly in Feb as well, indicating a consumer that is rapidly reigning in spending habits
usa.visa.com/partner-with...
usa.visa.com/partner-with...
Two concerning data points emerging from consumer spending: Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary is tracking a near percentage point decline in retail sales for Feb, following a weak Jan
www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...
www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...
March 12, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Two concerning data points emerging from consumer spending: Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary is tracking a near percentage point decline in retail sales for Feb, following a weak Jan
www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...
www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...
Cava in Cambridge must have got an early copy of Ezra Klein’s and @dkthomp.bsky.social new book
March 9, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Cava in Cambridge must have got an early copy of Ezra Klein’s and @dkthomp.bsky.social new book
Big jump in UI claims for Federal workers this morning - highest total since '21
March 6, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Big jump in UI claims for Federal workers this morning - highest total since '21
Harmonized CPI (excluding owner-occupied housing) is now more than a percentage point higher than its low last August - no longer is housing to blame for inflation progress
February 18, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Harmonized CPI (excluding owner-occupied housing) is now more than a percentage point higher than its low last August - no longer is housing to blame for inflation progress
And beyond the benchmark revisions Nov & Dec were revised up 100k, one of the highest months of positive revisions in quite a while
February 7, 2025 at 2:05 PM
And beyond the benchmark revisions Nov & Dec were revised up 100k, one of the highest months of positive revisions in quite a while
While healthcare has been leading the way for job growth - payroll diffusion index reecelearated after briefly touching 50 earlier this year
February 7, 2025 at 1:59 PM
While healthcare has been leading the way for job growth - payroll diffusion index reecelearated after briefly touching 50 earlier this year
With the slowdown in hiring from JOLTS this morning, the net hiring rate is within spitting distance of its 2019 average - jobs day friday likely closes that gap
February 4, 2025 at 8:35 PM
With the slowdown in hiring from JOLTS this morning, the net hiring rate is within spitting distance of its 2019 average - jobs day friday likely closes that gap
Last: wage growth has trended down significantly the past two years. Earnings at their peak during the Great Resignation were more than 13% for young workers! The direction of the trend is clear as well, further cooling to be expected.
January 23, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Last: wage growth has trended down significantly the past two years. Earnings at their peak during the Great Resignation were more than 13% for young workers! The direction of the trend is clear as well, further cooling to be expected.
Third: Labor market churn is way down (fewer quits) across the industries that typically absorb new college grads the most, so less need to open up new positions to backfill
January 23, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Third: Labor market churn is way down (fewer quits) across the industries that typically absorb new college grads the most, so less need to open up new positions to backfill
Second: new hires per capita (credit @aaronsojourner.org for this data) has shrunk dramatically for Gen Z, while remained mostly stable for prime-age workers. Employers can be pickier in this labor market, and are favoring those with more experience.
January 23, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Second: new hires per capita (credit @aaronsojourner.org for this data) has shrunk dramatically for Gen Z, while remained mostly stable for prime-age workers. Employers can be pickier in this labor market, and are favoring those with more experience.
First, the prime-age unemployment rate has remained under 4% for more than two years now, but for 16-24 year olds its above 9% - near late 2017 levels (not terrible, not great)
January 23, 2025 at 12:15 PM
First, the prime-age unemployment rate has remained under 4% for more than two years now, but for 16-24 year olds its above 9% - near late 2017 levels (not terrible, not great)
Total employment in the Mental Health specialities has absolutely exploded relative to its pre-pandemic trend
January 17, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Total employment in the Mental Health specialities has absolutely exploded relative to its pre-pandemic trend
Lazear & McCue (2017) find that 70% hiring activity is for backfills
www.nber.org/system/files...
www.nber.org/system/files...
January 11, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Lazear & McCue (2017) find that 70% hiring activity is for backfills
www.nber.org/system/files...
www.nber.org/system/files...