Sam Hoppen
@samhoppen.bsky.social
NFL Data Scientist 📊| Fmr FantasyPros, Betsperts | #GoPackGo | Opinions are my own
Substack: https://samhoppen.substack.com/
Substack: https://samhoppen.substack.com/
I’ve added even more charts to Hoppen to Conclusions, which instantly makes this the best one yet. In addition to those, I also wrote about:
📊My chart making philosophy
🚀Why I'm getting excited about the Patriots
🦬The best way to attack Buffalo's defense
➕And MORE
🔗 to read: t.co/CiNWYqLmbd
📊My chart making philosophy
🚀Why I'm getting excited about the Patriots
🦬The best way to attack Buffalo's defense
➕And MORE
🔗 to read: t.co/CiNWYqLmbd
October 1, 2025 at 2:29 PM
I’ve added even more charts to Hoppen to Conclusions, which instantly makes this the best one yet. In addition to those, I also wrote about:
📊My chart making philosophy
🚀Why I'm getting excited about the Patriots
🦬The best way to attack Buffalo's defense
➕And MORE
🔗 to read: t.co/CiNWYqLmbd
📊My chart making philosophy
🚀Why I'm getting excited about the Patriots
🦬The best way to attack Buffalo's defense
➕And MORE
🔗 to read: t.co/CiNWYqLmbd
The Eagles' offense currently leads the league in three-and-out rate:
September 30, 2025 at 3:25 PM
The Eagles' offense currently leads the league in three-and-out rate:
EPA per drive team tiers:
September 30, 2025 at 1:45 PM
EPA per drive team tiers:
Updated to include MNF:
September 30, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Updated to include MNF:
How the games were won (or tied) - I've shared all of the game recap charts on my Substack. Yet another wild Sunday in the NFL!
🔗: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
🔗: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
September 29, 2025 at 12:56 PM
How the games were won (or tied) - I've shared all of the game recap charts on my Substack. Yet another wild Sunday in the NFL!
🔗: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
🔗: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
Did we really get beat that bad? Week 4 NFL edition!
September 29, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Did we really get beat that bad? Week 4 NFL edition!
How the game was won: Cardinals vs. Seahawks
September 26, 2025 at 1:24 PM
How the game was won: Cardinals vs. Seahawks
One thing I like to do is compare EPA/p to success rate.
It's not perfect, but generally teams with a higher EPA/p than their implied success rate suggests they lean more on explosive plays.
For example, SF's offense is consistent down-to-down and rarely leans on explosives.
It's not perfect, but generally teams with a higher EPA/p than their implied success rate suggests they lean more on explosive plays.
For example, SF's offense is consistent down-to-down and rarely leans on explosives.
September 25, 2025 at 12:15 AM
One thing I like to do is compare EPA/p to success rate.
It's not perfect, but generally teams with a higher EPA/p than their implied success rate suggests they lean more on explosive plays.
For example, SF's offense is consistent down-to-down and rarely leans on explosives.
It's not perfect, but generally teams with a higher EPA/p than their implied success rate suggests they lean more on explosive plays.
For example, SF's offense is consistent down-to-down and rarely leans on explosives.
Key quarterback stats:
September 24, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Key quarterback stats:
Another week, another Hoppen to Conclusions! This week I covered:
❌Why I don't quite believe in the Jaguars' defense
🐏The Rams going away from 11 personnel
🐻Caleb Williams' improvement
➕And MORE!
🔗 to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...
❌Why I don't quite believe in the Jaguars' defense
🐏The Rams going away from 11 personnel
🐻Caleb Williams' improvement
➕And MORE!
🔗 to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...
September 24, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Another week, another Hoppen to Conclusions! This week I covered:
❌Why I don't quite believe in the Jaguars' defense
🐏The Rams going away from 11 personnel
🐻Caleb Williams' improvement
➕And MORE!
🔗 to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...
❌Why I don't quite believe in the Jaguars' defense
🐏The Rams going away from 11 personnel
🐻Caleb Williams' improvement
➕And MORE!
🔗 to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...
How quarterbacks have performed in expected pass situations so far this year:
September 24, 2025 at 12:29 PM
How quarterbacks have performed in expected pass situations so far this year:
Running back high-value touch leaders:
September 23, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Running back high-value touch leaders:
Offensive and defensive explosive play rates:
September 23, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Offensive and defensive explosive play rates:
Pass rate over expectation leaders and weekly PROE:
September 23, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Pass rate over expectation leaders and weekly PROE:
EPA per drive team tiers:
The Colts are breaking the scale
The Colts are breaking the scale
September 23, 2025 at 1:40 PM
EPA per drive team tiers:
The Colts are breaking the scale
The Colts are breaking the scale
Updated to include MNF:
September 23, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Updated to include MNF:
How the game was won: Giants vs. Chiefs
Check out these charts for every other game at my Substack: t.co/0mAKHkgZpn
Check out these charts for every other game at my Substack: t.co/0mAKHkgZpn
September 22, 2025 at 12:33 PM
How the game was won: Giants vs. Chiefs
Check out these charts for every other game at my Substack: t.co/0mAKHkgZpn
Check out these charts for every other game at my Substack: t.co/0mAKHkgZpn
Did we really get beat that bad? Week 3 NFL edition!
September 22, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Did we really get beat that bad? Week 3 NFL edition!
Key run defense stats:
September 18, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Key run defense stats:
Here's a look at each matchup's spread through the eyes of the composite ratings (this is not betting advice):
September 17, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Here's a look at each matchup's spread through the eyes of the composite ratings (this is not betting advice):
Week 3 NFL Composite Power Ratings!
Sources:
@espn.com (FPI)
Robby Greere (nfelo)
@inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable)
Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points)
@ftnfantasy.com / @aaronschatz.com (DVOA)
@profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)
Sources:
@espn.com (FPI)
Robby Greere (nfelo)
@inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable)
Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points)
@ftnfantasy.com / @aaronschatz.com (DVOA)
@profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)
September 17, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Week 3 NFL Composite Power Ratings!
Sources:
@espn.com (FPI)
Robby Greere (nfelo)
@inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable)
Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points)
@ftnfantasy.com / @aaronschatz.com (DVOA)
@profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)
Sources:
@espn.com (FPI)
Robby Greere (nfelo)
@inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable)
Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points)
@ftnfantasy.com / @aaronschatz.com (DVOA)
@profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)
Key pass rush stats:
September 17, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Key pass rush stats:
Key offensive line stats:
September 17, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Key offensive line stats:
Key quarterback stats so far this year:
September 17, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Key quarterback stats so far this year:
Hoppen to Conclusions Week 3 is LIVE! This week I discussed:
🦅Philadelphia's lack of offensive explosiveness
📈The Giants' shocking pass rates
⚔️Major concern for Tennessee's run defense
➕And MORE!
Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...
🦅Philadelphia's lack of offensive explosiveness
📈The Giants' shocking pass rates
⚔️Major concern for Tennessee's run defense
➕And MORE!
Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...
September 17, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Hoppen to Conclusions Week 3 is LIVE! This week I discussed:
🦅Philadelphia's lack of offensive explosiveness
📈The Giants' shocking pass rates
⚔️Major concern for Tennessee's run defense
➕And MORE!
Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...
🦅Philadelphia's lack of offensive explosiveness
📈The Giants' shocking pass rates
⚔️Major concern for Tennessee's run defense
➕And MORE!
Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...