Sam Hoppen
@samhoppen.bsky.social
NFL Data Scientist 📊| Fmr FantasyPros, Betsperts | #GoPackGo | Opinions are my own
Substack: https://samhoppen.substack.com/
Substack: https://samhoppen.substack.com/
Pinned
The NFL season is starting to wind down, but Hoppen to Conclusions rolls on! This week I wrote about:
📊Adding context to analytics
🚀The rising Texans
↩️Sean McVay going back to his old ways
🏴☠️Tampa Bay's secondary
➕And MORE!
🔗 to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
📊Adding context to analytics
🚀The rising Texans
↩️Sean McVay going back to his old ways
🏴☠️Tampa Bay's secondary
➕And MORE!
🔗 to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
A little late to the party, but the Week 16 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions is LIVE! This week I wrote about:
🐆 The Jaguars' red hot streak
🔴 Arizona's personnel usage
🚀 Brock Purdy's high-end efficiency
➕ And MORE!
Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...
🐆 The Jaguars' red hot streak
🔴 Arizona's personnel usage
🚀 Brock Purdy's high-end efficiency
➕ And MORE!
Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...
December 17, 2025 at 4:05 PM
A little late to the party, but the Week 16 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions is LIVE! This week I wrote about:
🐆 The Jaguars' red hot streak
🔴 Arizona's personnel usage
🚀 Brock Purdy's high-end efficiency
➕ And MORE!
Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...
🐆 The Jaguars' red hot streak
🔴 Arizona's personnel usage
🚀 Brock Purdy's high-end efficiency
➕ And MORE!
Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...
Offensive and defensive success rates by down:
The Rams' offense on early downs is a juggernaut
The Rams' offense on early downs is a juggernaut
December 16, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Offensive and defensive success rates by down:
The Rams' offense on early downs is a juggernaut
The Rams' offense on early downs is a juggernaut
Updated to include MNF:
December 16, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Updated to include MNF:
Monday night football game preview: Steelers vs. Dolphins
December 15, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Monday night football game preview: Steelers vs. Dolphins
Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:
December 15, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:
Just posted matchup previews for all of the Week 15 games on my Substack!
Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense:
open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense:
open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
December 12, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Just posted matchup previews for all of the Week 15 games on my Substack!
Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense:
open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense:
open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
How the game was won: Bucs vs. Falcons
Incredible what the Falcons did to overcome their 19 penalties that cost them 36.4% in win probability and 12.96 EPA across the game. Kirk Cousins was slinging it and had his best game in a longgg time.
Incredible what the Falcons did to overcome their 19 penalties that cost them 36.4% in win probability and 12.96 EPA across the game. Kirk Cousins was slinging it and had his best game in a longgg time.
December 12, 2025 at 3:44 PM
How the game was won: Bucs vs. Falcons
Incredible what the Falcons did to overcome their 19 penalties that cost them 36.4% in win probability and 12.96 EPA across the game. Kirk Cousins was slinging it and had his best game in a longgg time.
Incredible what the Falcons did to overcome their 19 penalties that cost them 36.4% in win probability and 12.96 EPA across the game. Kirk Cousins was slinging it and had his best game in a longgg time.
Reposted by Sam Hoppen
Thursday night football preview: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
The Bucs have been reeling as of late having lost 4 of their last 5, but have a chance to regain some control of the NFC South battle - if they win, they'll own the tiebreaker over Carolina should they split their 2 games.
The Bucs have been reeling as of late having lost 4 of their last 5, but have a chance to regain some control of the NFC South battle - if they win, they'll own the tiebreaker over Carolina should they split their 2 games.
December 11, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Thursday night football preview: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
The Bucs have been reeling as of late having lost 4 of their last 5, but have a chance to regain some control of the NFC South battle - if they win, they'll own the tiebreaker over Carolina should they split their 2 games.
The Bucs have been reeling as of late having lost 4 of their last 5, but have a chance to regain some control of the NFC South battle - if they win, they'll own the tiebreaker over Carolina should they split their 2 games.
Thursday night football preview: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
The Bucs have been reeling as of late having lost 4 of their last 5, but have a chance to regain some control of the NFC South battle - if they win, they'll own the tiebreaker over Carolina should they split their 2 games.
The Bucs have been reeling as of late having lost 4 of their last 5, but have a chance to regain some control of the NFC South battle - if they win, they'll own the tiebreaker over Carolina should they split their 2 games.
December 11, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Thursday night football preview: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
The Bucs have been reeling as of late having lost 4 of their last 5, but have a chance to regain some control of the NFC South battle - if they win, they'll own the tiebreaker over Carolina should they split their 2 games.
The Bucs have been reeling as of late having lost 4 of their last 5, but have a chance to regain some control of the NFC South battle - if they win, they'll own the tiebreaker over Carolina should they split their 2 games.
Went for quality over quantity in this week's Hoppen to Conclusions. I wrote about:
🦁Detroit's pass funnel defense
🏔️Denver passing the ball more
⚜️Thoughts on Tyler Shough
🟠The Bengals' personnel changes
Link to read: t.co/3seEXpoYUc
🦁Detroit's pass funnel defense
🏔️Denver passing the ball more
⚜️Thoughts on Tyler Shough
🟠The Bengals' personnel changes
Link to read: t.co/3seEXpoYUc
December 10, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Went for quality over quantity in this week's Hoppen to Conclusions. I wrote about:
🦁Detroit's pass funnel defense
🏔️Denver passing the ball more
⚜️Thoughts on Tyler Shough
🟠The Bengals' personnel changes
Link to read: t.co/3seEXpoYUc
🦁Detroit's pass funnel defense
🏔️Denver passing the ball more
⚜️Thoughts on Tyler Shough
🟠The Bengals' personnel changes
Link to read: t.co/3seEXpoYUc
Examining completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of starting quarterbacks by pass depth:
Drake Maye is currently the only QB with a positive CPOE at every level of the field.
Drake Maye is currently the only QB with a positive CPOE at every level of the field.
December 9, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Examining completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of starting quarterbacks by pass depth:
Drake Maye is currently the only QB with a positive CPOE at every level of the field.
Drake Maye is currently the only QB with a positive CPOE at every level of the field.
Offensive and defensive explosive play rates:
The two best defenses at limiting explosive plays matchup against each other this week.
The two best defenses at limiting explosive plays matchup against each other this week.
December 9, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Offensive and defensive explosive play rates:
The two best defenses at limiting explosive plays matchup against each other this week.
The two best defenses at limiting explosive plays matchup against each other this week.
Updated to include MNF:
December 9, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Updated to include MNF:
Reposted by Sam Hoppen
Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:
December 8, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:
Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:
December 8, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:
How often teams call a designed run following a first-down incompletion:
Klint, wyd man?
Klint, wyd man?
December 5, 2025 at 5:08 PM
How often teams call a designed run following a first-down incompletion:
Klint, wyd man?
Klint, wyd man?
Just posted matchup previews for all of the Week 14 games on my Substack!
Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
December 5, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Just posted matchup previews for all of the Week 14 games on my Substack!
Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
Reposted by Sam Hoppen
Thursday night football preview: Lions vs. Cowboys
Massive playoff implications for this one with a combined 78% in playoff probability swings. Dallas' D has improved having not allowed a success rate over 45% in their last 3 games and will go against a beaten up Lions O.
Massive playoff implications for this one with a combined 78% in playoff probability swings. Dallas' D has improved having not allowed a success rate over 45% in their last 3 games and will go against a beaten up Lions O.
December 4, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Thursday night football preview: Lions vs. Cowboys
Massive playoff implications for this one with a combined 78% in playoff probability swings. Dallas' D has improved having not allowed a success rate over 45% in their last 3 games and will go against a beaten up Lions O.
Massive playoff implications for this one with a combined 78% in playoff probability swings. Dallas' D has improved having not allowed a success rate over 45% in their last 3 games and will go against a beaten up Lions O.
Breaking down team year-to-date and last four game performance by various components, measured by total EPA (all components are measured in a way that positive EPA is better):
December 4, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Breaking down team year-to-date and last four game performance by various components, measured by total EPA (all components are measured in a way that positive EPA is better):
Thursday night football preview: Lions vs. Cowboys
Massive playoff implications for this one with a combined 78% in playoff probability swings. Dallas' D has improved having not allowed a success rate over 45% in their last 3 games and will go against a beaten up Lions O.
Massive playoff implications for this one with a combined 78% in playoff probability swings. Dallas' D has improved having not allowed a success rate over 45% in their last 3 games and will go against a beaten up Lions O.
December 4, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Thursday night football preview: Lions vs. Cowboys
Massive playoff implications for this one with a combined 78% in playoff probability swings. Dallas' D has improved having not allowed a success rate over 45% in their last 3 games and will go against a beaten up Lions O.
Massive playoff implications for this one with a combined 78% in playoff probability swings. Dallas' D has improved having not allowed a success rate over 45% in their last 3 games and will go against a beaten up Lions O.
Hit 1,000 subs on my Substack this morning! As something that's been a passion project, it's been very cool to see other people show interest in my work and I appreciate all who have supported it!
Looking forward to the rest of the szn and what I have planned for the offseason!
Looking forward to the rest of the szn and what I have planned for the offseason!
December 4, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Hit 1,000 subs on my Substack this morning! As something that's been a passion project, it's been very cool to see other people show interest in my work and I appreciate all who have supported it!
Looking forward to the rest of the szn and what I have planned for the offseason!
Looking forward to the rest of the szn and what I have planned for the offseason!
Week 14 NFL Composite Power Ratings!
Sources:
@espn.com (FPI)
@greerreNFL (nfelo)
@inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable)
@KevinCole___ (Unexpected Points)
@ftnfantasy.com/@aaronschatz.com (DVOA)
@profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)
@PoolGenius (Pool Genius)
Sources:
@espn.com (FPI)
@greerreNFL (nfelo)
@inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable)
@KevinCole___ (Unexpected Points)
@ftnfantasy.com/@aaronschatz.com (DVOA)
@profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)
@PoolGenius (Pool Genius)
December 3, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Week 14 NFL Composite Power Ratings!
Sources:
@espn.com (FPI)
@greerreNFL (nfelo)
@inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable)
@KevinCole___ (Unexpected Points)
@ftnfantasy.com/@aaronschatz.com (DVOA)
@profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)
@PoolGenius (Pool Genius)
Sources:
@espn.com (FPI)
@greerreNFL (nfelo)
@inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable)
@KevinCole___ (Unexpected Points)
@ftnfantasy.com/@aaronschatz.com (DVOA)
@profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)
@PoolGenius (Pool Genius)
Key coverage stats (year-to-date and last four games):
December 3, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Key coverage stats (year-to-date and last four games):
Key run defense stats (year-to-date and last four games):
December 3, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Key run defense stats (year-to-date and last four games):
Key pass rush stats (year-to-date and last four games):
Dallas is still struggling to take down opposing quarterbacks, but their pressure rate continues to get more consistent
Dallas is still struggling to take down opposing quarterbacks, but their pressure rate continues to get more consistent
December 3, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Key pass rush stats (year-to-date and last four games):
Dallas is still struggling to take down opposing quarterbacks, but their pressure rate continues to get more consistent
Dallas is still struggling to take down opposing quarterbacks, but their pressure rate continues to get more consistent