Sam
sam-watkins.bsky.social
Sam
@sam-watkins.bsky.social
Cody Fenwick at 80,000 Hours discusses Jan Kulveit et al's work on possible paths to AI hell. He describes a sequence of events culminating in this example:

"...entertainment evolves into persuasion technology that can shape political outcomes..."

80000hours.org/problem-prof...
May 23, 2025 at 3:44 PM
As children, both my parents skated on Corby Pond in St. Joseph, Missouri. I don't have hard data, but I don't think that's been possible going back at least to the early 80s when I was hearing those stories.

grist.org/science/brea...
May 8, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Who wins when physics collides with ignorance?

Physics, physics always wins.

I'd guess global insurers are getting the hell out of US markets (if they aren't already), and US insurers are doomed.

www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/trump-a...

www.theguardian.com/environment/...
April 30, 2025 at 7:03 PM
In other we-could-see-this-coming-from-miles-away news: Yes, the economy is a subset of the environment.

www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Climate crisis on track to destroy capitalism, warns top insurer
Action urgently needed to save the conditions under which markets – and civilisation itself – can operate, says senior Allianz figure
www.theguardian.com
April 3, 2025 at 3:47 PM
I'm listening to @thebulwark.bsky.social & @jonlovett.bsky.social discuss the worst case scenario (other than nuclear holocaust). I'm putting my marker on midterm elections suspended due to some Reichstag-ian event & convening a new constitutional convention to make GOP/MAGA rule permanent. 😟
March 31, 2025 at 9:57 PM
More fun with charts! A hypothetical late-ish GenX'er's earnings over the past 26 years (adjusted for inflation) have averaged a stunning 2.2% of growth.
March 24, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Beyond collecting the fragments of many work sponsored 401k plans into an IRA, I'm not an "investor". I do like charts and I recently learn of the Buffett Indicator. It indicates something akin to the '73-'75 recession:
March 12, 2025 at 4:00 PM
I have to suppress the urge to (jokingly, of course) call my red pilled coworkers "tovarich", but maybe "muzhik" is more appropriate?
March 6, 2025 at 2:46 PM
IMHO, applying positive discount rates to future lives is, very literally, a crime against humanity. Eliminating them altogether, well...

www.propublica.org/article/trum...
Trump Order Shifts the Financial Burden of Climate Change Onto Individuals
The change would effectively transfer financial responsibility from oil drillers, auto manufacturers and others and leave Americans to face greater direct costs as warming continues.
www.propublica.org
February 24, 2025 at 9:14 PM
For the Pope, this is a sick burn on J.D. Vance:

"Christian love is not a concentric expansion of interests that little by little extend to other persons and groups,"
February 11, 2025 at 7:00 PM
The New York Good Times
The New York Good Times
informationisbeautiful.net
January 24, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Any fucking thing except gun control...
December 20, 2024 at 4:14 PM
I'm editing a...that doesn't matter. I think the term "hose reel" is a pretty good radio-friendly insult.
December 10, 2024 at 8:05 PM
NYT on Percy's "Love in the Ruins":

“Conservatives have begun to fall victim to unseasonable rages, delusions of conspiracies, high blood pressure, and large‐bowel complaints. Liberals are more apt to contract sexual impotence, morning terror, and a feeling of abstraction of the self from itself."
November 26, 2024 at 4:27 PM