Joe Fish
@sadbusdriver.bsky.social
PhD student doing urban econ and industrial organization at Duke. Former highest paid cashier in the Midwest; former RA at Eviction Lab; Macalester College. Not a real bus driver
so for this san francisco upzoning, what's actually gonna get built in practice?
my quick read is that only vacant lots, commercial buildings, and single family homes (maybe duplexes?) are legally + financially feasible to redevelop? and single family homes have bldg code issues
my quick read is that only vacant lots, commercial buildings, and single family homes (maybe duplexes?) are legally + financially feasible to redevelop? and single family homes have bldg code issues
December 4, 2025 at 8:33 PM
so for this san francisco upzoning, what's actually gonna get built in practice?
my quick read is that only vacant lots, commercial buildings, and single family homes (maybe duplexes?) are legally + financially feasible to redevelop? and single family homes have bldg code issues
my quick read is that only vacant lots, commercial buildings, and single family homes (maybe duplexes?) are legally + financially feasible to redevelop? and single family homes have bldg code issues
this chart is a bit weird because it *really* matters which year you set as your baseline.
if you reindex to 2020 instead of 2021, you get that, with the exception of shelter, wages have kept pace with essentials.
if you reindex to 2020 instead of 2021, you get that, with the exception of shelter, wages have kept pace with essentials.
December 4, 2025 at 3:17 PM
this chart is a bit weird because it *really* matters which year you set as your baseline.
if you reindex to 2020 instead of 2021, you get that, with the exception of shelter, wages have kept pace with essentials.
if you reindex to 2020 instead of 2021, you get that, with the exception of shelter, wages have kept pace with essentials.
People, like in this article, make the argument that (spot) up zoning increases land values, but even if it increases the value of the upzoned property it should decrease the value of “land you can build apartments on”, which is what multi fam developers would care about
medium.com/@el.compay.n...
medium.com/@el.compay.n...
Upzoning Fantasies
Last week I invited a market-rate developer as guest speaker in my graduate housing class at the University of San Francisco. I told him…
medium.com
December 3, 2025 at 8:31 PM
People, like in this article, make the argument that (spot) up zoning increases land values, but even if it increases the value of the upzoned property it should decrease the value of “land you can build apartments on”, which is what multi fam developers would care about
medium.com/@el.compay.n...
medium.com/@el.compay.n...
my contribution to the "equilibrium" discourse raging on econ twitter is a that:
1) everyone has to "close" their model
2) i think econ is relatively *more* aware of what assumptions are being made when doing so
1) everyone has to "close" their model
2) i think econ is relatively *more* aware of what assumptions are being made when doing so
December 2, 2025 at 2:48 AM
my contribution to the "equilibrium" discourse raging on econ twitter is a that:
1) everyone has to "close" their model
2) i think econ is relatively *more* aware of what assumptions are being made when doing so
1) everyone has to "close" their model
2) i think econ is relatively *more* aware of what assumptions are being made when doing so
A cool paper I wish I had done argues a lot of these down zonings (broadly, increases in exclusionary zoning) happened in response to more Black people migrating to non-Southern cities.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
December 1, 2025 at 5:45 PM
A cool paper I wish I had done argues a lot of these down zonings (broadly, increases in exclusionary zoning) happened in response to more Black people migrating to non-Southern cities.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
The period from 2015 to 2025 has been the best decade in the past 50 years for large and broad-based income gains
This is even true if you zoom in on young households. To explain the expressed economic malaise, you either need to go Full Stancil or argue that something, eg housing, is super salient
This is even true if you zoom in on young households. To explain the expressed economic malaise, you either need to go Full Stancil or argue that something, eg housing, is super salient
December 1, 2025 at 4:03 PM
The period from 2015 to 2025 has been the best decade in the past 50 years for large and broad-based income gains
This is even true if you zoom in on young households. To explain the expressed economic malaise, you either need to go Full Stancil or argue that something, eg housing, is super salient
This is even true if you zoom in on young households. To explain the expressed economic malaise, you either need to go Full Stancil or argue that something, eg housing, is super salient
People are purportedly losing faith in the value proposition of a college degree, however, it is simultaneously true that:
1. the price of tuition has been falling rapidly relative to CPI
2. the college wage premium has been pretty flat
so it might be a particularly *good* time to go to college?
1. the price of tuition has been falling rapidly relative to CPI
2. the college wage premium has been pretty flat
so it might be a particularly *good* time to go to college?
November 29, 2025 at 5:56 PM
People are purportedly losing faith in the value proposition of a college degree, however, it is simultaneously true that:
1. the price of tuition has been falling rapidly relative to CPI
2. the college wage premium has been pretty flat
so it might be a particularly *good* time to go to college?
1. the price of tuition has been falling rapidly relative to CPI
2. the college wage premium has been pretty flat
so it might be a particularly *good* time to go to college?
aside from being a chart crime, I'm think the answer to "why are fewer people living in extreme poverty in china than the US" is "the data aren't comparable".
China is reporting 0% extreme poverty in a consumption based survey; the US reports ~1% in an income based one. *Sweeden* reports a 0.75%.
China is reporting 0% extreme poverty in a consumption based survey; the US reports ~1% in an income based one. *Sweeden* reports a 0.75%.
November 28, 2025 at 1:19 AM
aside from being a chart crime, I'm think the answer to "why are fewer people living in extreme poverty in china than the US" is "the data aren't comparable".
China is reporting 0% extreme poverty in a consumption based survey; the US reports ~1% in an income based one. *Sweeden* reports a 0.75%.
China is reporting 0% extreme poverty in a consumption based survey; the US reports ~1% in an income based one. *Sweeden* reports a 0.75%.
the long view of shelter inflation also makes a much stronger case for the primacy of supply constraints in determining housing affordability
if you think the stagnation + drop beginning in the late 1960s reflects adoption of growth controls, that's kind of the whole story!
@aarmlovi.bsky.social
if you think the stagnation + drop beginning in the late 1960s reflects adoption of growth controls, that's kind of the whole story!
@aarmlovi.bsky.social
November 27, 2025 at 4:55 PM
the long view of shelter inflation also makes a much stronger case for the primacy of supply constraints in determining housing affordability
if you think the stagnation + drop beginning in the late 1960s reflects adoption of growth controls, that's kind of the whole story!
@aarmlovi.bsky.social
if you think the stagnation + drop beginning in the late 1960s reflects adoption of growth controls, that's kind of the whole story!
@aarmlovi.bsky.social
People seldomly make this point correctly, but you can make a mostly-coherent argument that if you look at income gains in terms of the prices of "essentials", they're somewhere between modest and stagnant, depending on which year you pick for your base.
November 27, 2025 at 4:38 PM
People seldomly make this point correctly, but you can make a mostly-coherent argument that if you look at income gains in terms of the prices of "essentials", they're somewhere between modest and stagnant, depending on which year you pick for your base.
The commitment to white supremacy is crazy
Except where it gets weird, like the fact that apparently Steven Miller only eats mayonnaise?!
November 27, 2025 at 12:54 AM
The commitment to white supremacy is crazy
crazy you basically can't get a mortgage with a <760 credit score anymore
November 26, 2025 at 3:54 AM
crazy you basically can't get a mortgage with a <760 credit score anymore
the substack guy is basically cribbing his numbers from MIT's living wage calculator (although he's disingenuously not adjusting his income numbers inline with his expenses).
it's fine to use a higher threshold for poverty. but do this consistently! it'd imply like 90+% poverty rates in the 1950s
it's fine to use a higher threshold for poverty. but do this consistently! it'd imply like 90+% poverty rates in the 1950s
if you think poverty measures should be updated using an inflation index that takes into account a wide variety of goods and services (weighted based on what people spend their money on), that's how the poverty measures are updated in practice.
that food % declines as ppl get richer is Engels law.
that food % declines as ppl get richer is Engels law.
November 25, 2025 at 7:00 PM
the substack guy is basically cribbing his numbers from MIT's living wage calculator (although he's disingenuously not adjusting his income numbers inline with his expenses).
it's fine to use a higher threshold for poverty. but do this consistently! it'd imply like 90+% poverty rates in the 1950s
it's fine to use a higher threshold for poverty. but do this consistently! it'd imply like 90+% poverty rates in the 1950s
130K for a household of 4 is about what you get using MIT's living wage calculator (e.g., Hennepin County, MN).
The issue is that this is *definitely* not a poverty wage; per MIT poverty is ~32,000 in MPLS.
people have lost sight of how poor the US was when the poverty line was first introduced.
The issue is that this is *definitely* not a poverty wage; per MIT poverty is ~32,000 in MPLS.
people have lost sight of how poor the US was when the poverty line was first introduced.
November 24, 2025 at 4:14 PM
130K for a household of 4 is about what you get using MIT's living wage calculator (e.g., Hennepin County, MN).
The issue is that this is *definitely* not a poverty wage; per MIT poverty is ~32,000 in MPLS.
people have lost sight of how poor the US was when the poverty line was first introduced.
The issue is that this is *definitely* not a poverty wage; per MIT poverty is ~32,000 in MPLS.
people have lost sight of how poor the US was when the poverty line was first introduced.
here's a fun game to play in light of that (bad) substack on "poverty" going around.
The game is called "the median household of four is rich beyond your wildest dreams".
America is really rich! median household of 4 in seattle is at like 160K.
The game is called "the median household of four is rich beyond your wildest dreams".
America is really rich! median household of 4 in seattle is at like 160K.
November 24, 2025 at 3:45 PM
here's a fun game to play in light of that (bad) substack on "poverty" going around.
The game is called "the median household of four is rich beyond your wildest dreams".
America is really rich! median household of 4 in seattle is at like 160K.
The game is called "the median household of four is rich beyond your wildest dreams".
America is really rich! median household of 4 in seattle is at like 160K.
Reposted by Joe Fish
I’m at the Southern Economic Association conference in Tampa - come see me present on a large rural school expansion program in India!
#SEA2025
#SEA2025
November 23, 2025 at 11:57 PM
I’m at the Southern Economic Association conference in Tampa - come see me present on a large rural school expansion program in India!
#SEA2025
#SEA2025
I think this is mostly San Francisco finally shrugging off the pandemic, but it is *really* funny that rent prices in San Francisco shot up *immediately* after the city banned RealPage and other algorithmic price setting software.
My pre trends are incredible!
My pre trends are incredible!
November 22, 2025 at 5:29 PM
I think this is mostly San Francisco finally shrugging off the pandemic, but it is *really* funny that rent prices in San Francisco shot up *immediately* after the city banned RealPage and other algorithmic price setting software.
My pre trends are incredible!
My pre trends are incredible!
niche tweet alert: NYCs "supermarket needs index" seems kind of bad. TLDR; people are calling it a "food dessert map", but the methodology makes it clear it's mostly a map of poverty.
More grocery stores is good, but I think it's being kind of oversold as an affordability or an anti-poverty tool
More grocery stores is good, but I think it's being kind of oversold as an affordability or an anti-poverty tool
November 20, 2025 at 2:10 AM
niche tweet alert: NYCs "supermarket needs index" seems kind of bad. TLDR; people are calling it a "food dessert map", but the methodology makes it clear it's mostly a map of poverty.
More grocery stores is good, but I think it's being kind of oversold as an affordability or an anti-poverty tool
More grocery stores is good, but I think it's being kind of oversold as an affordability or an anti-poverty tool
Rent prices remain super elevated in areas hit by the 2025 Los Angeles Wildfires, mostly driven by increases in zip codes affected by the Palisades fires.
November 20, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Rent prices remain super elevated in areas hit by the 2025 Los Angeles Wildfires, mostly driven by increases in zip codes affected by the Palisades fires.
Some takes on housing discourse:
1. measures of cost burdens at local levels are close to useless. for instance, of counties with > 100,000 renter households, the *least* rent burdened is San Francisco
2. homeownership doesn't measure what you think it does
3. housing shortage estimates are weird
1. measures of cost burdens at local levels are close to useless. for instance, of counties with > 100,000 renter households, the *least* rent burdened is San Francisco
2. homeownership doesn't measure what you think it does
3. housing shortage estimates are weird
November 18, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Some takes on housing discourse:
1. measures of cost burdens at local levels are close to useless. for instance, of counties with > 100,000 renter households, the *least* rent burdened is San Francisco
2. homeownership doesn't measure what you think it does
3. housing shortage estimates are weird
1. measures of cost burdens at local levels are close to useless. for instance, of counties with > 100,000 renter households, the *least* rent burdened is San Francisco
2. homeownership doesn't measure what you think it does
3. housing shortage estimates are weird
per SF Fire Data, since 2003 in pre-1976 high rises (not just condos), there's been
- 0 deaths
- 20 injuries
- ~15 million in property damage (not adjusted for inflation)
This ordinance would hit 9800 units and cost 2.7 billion.
@stephenjacobsmith.com
www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/arti...
- 0 deaths
- 20 injuries
- ~15 million in property damage (not adjusted for inflation)
This ordinance would hit 9800 units and cost 2.7 billion.
@stephenjacobsmith.com
www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/arti...
November 17, 2025 at 9:19 PM
per SF Fire Data, since 2003 in pre-1976 high rises (not just condos), there's been
- 0 deaths
- 20 injuries
- ~15 million in property damage (not adjusted for inflation)
This ordinance would hit 9800 units and cost 2.7 billion.
@stephenjacobsmith.com
www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/arti...
- 0 deaths
- 20 injuries
- ~15 million in property damage (not adjusted for inflation)
This ordinance would hit 9800 units and cost 2.7 billion.
@stephenjacobsmith.com
www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/arti...
Updated plot but same conclusion:
1. Metros where more apartments use rental pricing software are more sensitive to changes in demand, but this is true for both increases *and* decreases
2. Long term prices are mostly going to be determined by at what rent the marginal unit pencils at
1. Metros where more apartments use rental pricing software are more sensitive to changes in demand, but this is true for both increases *and* decreases
2. Long term prices are mostly going to be determined by at what rent the marginal unit pencils at
November 16, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Updated plot but same conclusion:
1. Metros where more apartments use rental pricing software are more sensitive to changes in demand, but this is true for both increases *and* decreases
2. Long term prices are mostly going to be determined by at what rent the marginal unit pencils at
1. Metros where more apartments use rental pricing software are more sensitive to changes in demand, but this is true for both increases *and* decreases
2. Long term prices are mostly going to be determined by at what rent the marginal unit pencils at
Anyway, I think the correct read on ticket pricing is that, pre-COVID, sports tickets track GDP and concert prices track GDP / capita.
Big picture, the rise in ticket prices seems like a combination of income inequality and supply constraints more than it does anything else (eg ticketmaster).
Big picture, the rise in ticket prices seems like a combination of income inequality and supply constraints more than it does anything else (eg ticketmaster).
November 16, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Anyway, I think the correct read on ticket pricing is that, pre-COVID, sports tickets track GDP and concert prices track GDP / capita.
Big picture, the rise in ticket prices seems like a combination of income inequality and supply constraints more than it does anything else (eg ticketmaster).
Big picture, the rise in ticket prices seems like a combination of income inequality and supply constraints more than it does anything else (eg ticketmaster).
Re the "regulate the price of beer" debate, the two competing worldviews seem to be:
1. you can regulate margins/conduct and companies will, to a large degree, just take it on the chin
2. companies will adjust to your regulation and, to a large degree, offset what you're doing
1. you can regulate margins/conduct and companies will, to a large degree, just take it on the chin
2. companies will adjust to your regulation and, to a large degree, offset what you're doing
November 16, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Re the "regulate the price of beer" debate, the two competing worldviews seem to be:
1. you can regulate margins/conduct and companies will, to a large degree, just take it on the chin
2. companies will adjust to your regulation and, to a large degree, offset what you're doing
1. you can regulate margins/conduct and companies will, to a large degree, just take it on the chin
2. companies will adjust to your regulation and, to a large degree, offset what you're doing
if people have strong thoughts on how to do these threads, let me know. im weighing having the threads be 60 posts w/ a lot of per study detail vs the quick overview I did here.
Maybe type up a longer form overview and host it somewhere?
Maybe type up a longer form overview and host it somewhere?
I'm going to try to put together a mini lit review on some of the recent institutional landlords papers. there are lots of papers, so I will be necessarily omitting many.
Mostly focused on impacts on prices, and whether institutional landlords are killing homeownership and driving up rents.
Mostly focused on impacts on prices, and whether institutional landlords are killing homeownership and driving up rents.
November 13, 2025 at 9:20 PM
if people have strong thoughts on how to do these threads, let me know. im weighing having the threads be 60 posts w/ a lot of per study detail vs the quick overview I did here.
Maybe type up a longer form overview and host it somewhere?
Maybe type up a longer form overview and host it somewhere?