11/
If you have ever seen a water cannon clip from the South China Sea and thought “I know this matters but I cannot explain why,” that piece—and the broader No Shots Fired project—is for you.

Clear scenes. No jargon. One question:

Who actually controls the water, and under whose rules?

10/
I just published a deeper, scene-driven explainer on Second Thomas Shoal—what it looks like from the deck of a small boat, how the siege works step by step, and what it tells us about the future of Asia’s seas.

You can read it here:
👉 noshotsfired.substack.com/p/second-tho...

9/
The real question Second Thomas is answering is not “Who wins a naval battle?”

It is:

Who can still safely work, sail, and enforce rules in these waters in 5–10 years, and on whose terms.

If the siege works, the answer is: only those who accept Chinese management.

8/
Second Thomas Shoal is a live test of China’s “no shots fired” operating system:

Persistent presence

Coast guard and “fishing” swarms

“Non-lethal” tools that still injure

Legal language about “Chinese waters”

A slow grind on a weaker state’s will

7/
From Manila’s perspective, every run that makes it through says:

We are still here

We will not let a rusting hulk die quietly

We are willing to put small crews in harm’s way to prove it

That is why this reef matters far beyond its GPS coordinates.

6/
From Beijing’s perspective, a good month at Second Thomas looks like:

Every Philippine run is blocked, delayed, or punished

Manila’s captains start to wonder if the next trip is worth it

The U.S. and others respond with statements, not real changes

It is a siege by paperwork and water cannon.

5/
Those clips you see—Philippine boats getting blasted from close range—are not random outbursts.

They are tools:

Break bridge windows

Damage antennas and sensors

Soak crews and make decks dangerous

Force boats to abort runs

All while staying “below war.”

4/
Each resupply run looks something like this:

Small Philippine boats head for the shoal

A big China Coast Guard cutter is already on scene

“Fishing” vessels lurk nearby

Radio calls demand they leave “Chinese waters”

The geometry tightens

Then the water cannons start.

3/
China’s goal today is not to storm the ship. It is to make resupplying that tiny garrison so dangerous and miserable that the Philippines eventually gives up and walks away.

No missiles. No marines storming the ramp.

Just constant pressure on small boats.

2/
Second Thomas Shoal is a submerged reef in the Spratlys, well inside the Philippines’ EEZ.

In 1999, Manila ran the BRP Sierra Madre—an old U.S. tank-landing ship—onto the reef and left a small Marine detachment on board.

A wreck, on purpose, to hold a claim.

10/
My project, No Shots Fired, is about exactly this:

How China uses coast guards, “fishing” fleets, artificial islands, and lawfare to fight for Asia’s seas—and what that means for people who will never see the South China Sea.

For clear, scene-driven explainers:
👉 noshotsfired.substack.com

9/
So when you see a clip of water cannons hitting a boat, don't file it under “faraway squabbles.”

Treat it as a live test of:

Whether law and agreements still mean much at sea.

Whether alliances still work in practice.

Whether others will copy a cheap coercion model that stops just shy of war.

8/
And it matters for crisis risk.

A pattern of daily pressure + complacent responses is how you drift into a world where:

Miscalculation gets easier.

“Red lines” are fuzzier.

One bad encounter at sea can drag bigger powers in.

We have seen that movie before on land. Now it is moving offshore.

7/
This also matters for alliances.

The Philippines is a U.S. treaty ally. Japan too. What happens when their small ships get hit, blocked, or boarded?

If allies conclude that words are cheap and practical help is thin, they start hedging. That reshapes the map of who leans toward whom.

6/
If “no shots fired” coercion becomes normal in Asia’s seas, others will copy the model:

Coast guards and “civilian” boats used as weapons.

Domestic law stretched to justify new “zones.”

“Routine patrols” quietly pushing rivals out.

Think Black Sea, Arctic, chokepoints in other regions.

5/
Every time the answer is “they shrugged,” the message is:

Law at sea is optional.

Treaties are negotiable by pressure.

If you are small and alone, expect to be managed.

That mindset does not stay on one reef. It travels.

4/
Why do water cannons and “fishing” swarms matter?

Because they are cheap tests of how much pushback China faces when it raises risk for others but stops short of war:

Will a smaller state keep sending ships?

Will allies do more than issue statements?

Will the rest of the world shrug?

3/
China is not just protecting “fishing rights.”

It is running a slow campaign to decide who feels safe fishing, surveying, resupplying outposts, and patrolling in key waters—and who quietly backs away.

If you control who feels safe, you control a lot more than fish.

2/
Look at a map of trade.

Roughly a third of global shipping passes through the South China Sea. Oil, gas, food, electronics, car parts, everything.

If those routes get riskier or more politicized, you feel it in prices, delivery times, and supply shocks—far away from any reef.