Start Here: What is No Shots Fired?
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Welcome to No Shots Fired
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The next phase of maritime pressure does not need a fleet. It needs plausible cargo, a civilian hull, and a story that makes everything feel “routine.”

In this post: how “temporary” corridors get normalized, why insurance and reroutes do the enforcing, and why week one sets the new baseline.

“Unsafe” clips are rarely the point. The point is what changes after: routes, tempos, escorts, and what starts feeling “normal.”

I broke down a recent “unsafe, unprofessional” PRC intercept and the simple lens I use to read these.

Read here:
noshotsfired.substack.com/p/unsafe-unp...

One headline ship can surge in a crisis. Gray-zone advantage comes from smaller ships that keep showing up.

Tuesday, not war.
Presence wins.

The question for a capital ship plan: does it buy Tuesday presence—escorts, inspections, rapid response—or just headlines.

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South China Sea “incidents” are often the point: routine patrols, fishing swarms, and lawfare that slowly make a status quo feel normal.

No Shots Fired field guide: noshotsfired.substack.com/p/start-here...
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#SouthChinaSea #MaritimeSecurity #GrayZone

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A rusting WWII-era ship, deliberately grounded on a reef, is now one of the most important pieces of real estate in Asia.

China is trying to squeeze it off the map without firing a shot.

This is the story of Second Thomas Shoal. 🧵

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You live nowhere near the South China Sea.

So why should you care that Chinese coast guard ships are blasting Philippine boats with water cannons around some reef you will never visit?

Short answer: because this is how power is being tested in the global economy’s most important sea lanes.