Since Feb, US immigration authorities recorded an average of 11,000 border encounters a month--a dramatic decrease compared to last months of Biden admin. But Trump policies appear to be less effective at reducing encounters of Mexican single adults as compared to other groups.

Compared to the last months under the Biden admin, a shrinking share of immigrants in ICE detention had a criminal conviction despite the Trump admin pledge of targeting the “worst of the worst.” And once in detention, it is increasingly unlikely that immigrants are released.

If deportation is meant to deter future attempts to migrate irregularly, reintegrating returnees to their communities should be a shared responsibility of the U.S. government and receiving countries--not an afterthought.

Read our NEW MPI short read w/ colleague Maria Jesus Mora: shorturl.at/AuwmE

Like before 2019, single adult Mexicans & Northern Central Americans account for most arrivals. 79% of arrivals between POEs were put into expedited removal under Biden’s Secure Border Rule or reinstatement of removal, less than 10% were issued an NTA. Notably, no one was placed in MPP.

As of mid-Feb, daily migrant encounters *at & between* POEs along US border fell to about 370. The significant drop in arrivals is partially explained by the cancellation of #CBPOne parole appointments by the Trump administration.

Follow @colleenputzelkav.bsky.social + I for border stat analyses

MX gov begins deployment of 10K National Guard units to US-MX border per Sheinbaum-Trump agreement to avert tariffs. Half are deployed to Tijuana and Juarez, the largest border cities. But less than 1K to cities in Tamaulipas that have seen cartel violence.

www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/guard...

Of the nearly 1.5 million unauthorized immigrants with final removal orders as of Nov 2024, over 2/3 were from Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala & El Salvador. Though they are enforcement targets under the Trump admin, many may be pursuing forms of relief of protection from removal.

What is clear is that MX migration enforcement controls have been indispensable to reducing irregular migration at the US-MX border. Collaboration is fundamental. The US & MX are intertwined economically, and tariffs can have disastrous effects on both sides of the border.

MX Pres Sheinbaum responded today to US imposition of tariffs on MX imports, instructing her admin to activate retaliatory tariffs. It is unclear how/when these will be active. She pushed back strongly on US suggestion of alliance btwn MX government and cartels.

🔊 Follow for future analyses

As encounters fell btwn POEs, the number of migrants arriving to POEs with #CBPOne app stayed steady. In fact, more migrants arrived at POEs than btwn since late Dec. Now that Trump admin ended these appointments, it's possible more migrants already in MX try crossing btwn POEs.

Prior to Pres. Trump's inauguration, MX Foreign Minister defends gains on border control resulting from US-MX efforts. Migrant encounters fell sharply in Jan due to MX enforcement. And Biden admin asylum restrictions in June dropped DAILY encounters btwn POEs to 2K or less since.