Robert Griffin, Phd
@rpgriffin.bsky.social
Associate Director of Research, DemocracyFund
Research Director for Voter Study Group
Previously at PRRI, Center for American Progress, Editorial Committee PS: Political Science & Politics
Polisci PhD
Personal website: rgriffin.crd.co
Research Director for Voter Study Group
Previously at PRRI, Center for American Progress, Editorial Committee PS: Political Science & Politics
Polisci PhD
Personal website: rgriffin.crd.co
Strikes me as a situation where it could well be introducing bias but a) it's directionally correct and b) warts and all, better than not doing it at the end of the day.
October 8, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Strikes me as a situation where it could well be introducing bias but a) it's directionally correct and b) warts and all, better than not doing it at the end of the day.
I'd have to hear more about those differential rates + then think through about the realistic effect sizes of such a bias.
That said, the most consistent effect across racial lines isn't POC generally, it's black voters in particular and that lines up well with over-reporting patterns by state.
That said, the most consistent effect across racial lines isn't POC generally, it's black voters in particular and that lines up well with over-reporting patterns by state.
October 8, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I'd have to hear more about those differential rates + then think through about the realistic effect sizes of such a bias.
That said, the most consistent effect across racial lines isn't POC generally, it's black voters in particular and that lines up well with over-reporting patterns by state.
That said, the most consistent effect across racial lines isn't POC generally, it's black voters in particular and that lines up well with over-reporting patterns by state.
Not sure what will count as substantive here but I think the addition of the voter validation stuff is valuable.
It would suggest black turnout a) it didn't surpass white turnout in 08/12 (suggested by the results you linked to) and b) it's now ~indistinguishable from AAPI turnout (which is novel).
It would suggest black turnout a) it didn't surpass white turnout in 08/12 (suggested by the results you linked to) and b) it's now ~indistinguishable from AAPI turnout (which is novel).
October 8, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Not sure what will count as substantive here but I think the addition of the voter validation stuff is valuable.
It would suggest black turnout a) it didn't surpass white turnout in 08/12 (suggested by the results you linked to) and b) it's now ~indistinguishable from AAPI turnout (which is novel).
It would suggest black turnout a) it didn't surpass white turnout in 08/12 (suggested by the results you linked to) and b) it's now ~indistinguishable from AAPI turnout (which is novel).
The story itself: goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...
More methodological goodness and data downloads for you nerds: democracyfund.org/idea/the-com...
More methodological goodness and data downloads for you nerds: democracyfund.org/idea/the-com...
2024 brought high voter turnout – but a growing racial gap
New data shows that while white turnout has spiked, turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated.
goodauthority.org
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
The story itself: goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...
More methodological goodness and data downloads for you nerds: democracyfund.org/idea/the-com...
More methodological goodness and data downloads for you nerds: democracyfund.org/idea/the-com...
We thought it possible to build estimates that did a better job.
The biggest methodological jumps are a) we incorporated voter validated survey data to adjust self-reported turnout rates and b) found that we could make sub-state adjustment to the CPS.
The biggest methodological jumps are a) we incorporated voter validated survey data to adjust self-reported turnout rates and b) found that we could make sub-state adjustment to the CPS.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
We thought it possible to build estimates that did a better job.
The biggest methodological jumps are a) we incorporated voter validated survey data to adjust self-reported turnout rates and b) found that we could make sub-state adjustment to the CPS.
The biggest methodological jumps are a) we incorporated voter validated survey data to adjust self-reported turnout rates and b) found that we could make sub-state adjustment to the CPS.
OK, now the nerdy part.
While other estimates exist out there, they all have issues: Not comparable over time, not based on open methodologies, based on private data, etc.
While other estimates exist out there, they all have issues: Not comparable over time, not based on open methodologies, based on private data, etc.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
OK, now the nerdy part.
While other estimates exist out there, they all have issues: Not comparable over time, not based on open methodologies, based on private data, etc.
While other estimates exist out there, they all have issues: Not comparable over time, not based on open methodologies, based on private data, etc.
It's not 100% clear why this is happening but we do offer a few potential explanations.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
It's not 100% clear why this is happening but we do offer a few potential explanations.
What's more, these estimates are likely underselling the story about black voters.
Our most exhaustive estimates - which incorporate voter validation data but are only available from 2006 onward - suggest that black turnout was even lower. Now likely on par with AAPI voters.
Our most exhaustive estimates - which incorporate voter validation data but are only available from 2006 onward - suggest that black turnout was even lower. Now likely on par with AAPI voters.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
What's more, these estimates are likely underselling the story about black voters.
Our most exhaustive estimates - which incorporate voter validation data but are only available from 2006 onward - suggest that black turnout was even lower. Now likely on par with AAPI voters.
Our most exhaustive estimates - which incorporate voter validation data but are only available from 2006 onward - suggest that black turnout was even lower. Now likely on par with AAPI voters.
Bonus chart - the turnout gap vs. whites.
Black voters - who essentially closed that gap in '08 + '12 - are back to 90s levels.
The gaps for Latino voters have remained steadily wide. While APPI voters are doing better than earlier periods, '24 still represented a decline.
Black voters - who essentially closed that gap in '08 + '12 - are back to 90s levels.
The gaps for Latino voters have remained steadily wide. While APPI voters are doing better than earlier periods, '24 still represented a decline.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Bonus chart - the turnout gap vs. whites.
Black voters - who essentially closed that gap in '08 + '12 - are back to 90s levels.
The gaps for Latino voters have remained steadily wide. While APPI voters are doing better than earlier periods, '24 still represented a decline.
Black voters - who essentially closed that gap in '08 + '12 - are back to 90s levels.
The gaps for Latino voters have remained steadily wide. While APPI voters are doing better than earlier periods, '24 still represented a decline.
We've entered a high turnout period - something that should be seen as a positive development.
However, the dynamics of this hasn't resulted in equal gains among all groups. Specifically, 2024 turnout levels resulted in turnout gaps between whites and other groups going up.
However, the dynamics of this hasn't resulted in equal gains among all groups. Specifically, 2024 turnout levels resulted in turnout gaps between whites and other groups going up.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
We've entered a high turnout period - something that should be seen as a positive development.
However, the dynamics of this hasn't resulted in equal gains among all groups. Specifically, 2024 turnout levels resulted in turnout gaps between whites and other groups going up.
However, the dynamics of this hasn't resulted in equal gains among all groups. Specifically, 2024 turnout levels resulted in turnout gaps between whites and other groups going up.
Creates a lot of room for people to claim whatever they like while ignoring all the other stuff. Not ideal!
FWIW, I honestly have very little dog in any of these fights but it's frustrating to see the same dynamics over and over.
FWIW, I honestly have very little dog in any of these fights but it's frustrating to see the same dynamics over and over.
November 15, 2024 at 1:46 PM
Creates a lot of room for people to claim whatever they like while ignoring all the other stuff. Not ideal!
FWIW, I honestly have very little dog in any of these fights but it's frustrating to see the same dynamics over and over.
FWIW, I honestly have very little dog in any of these fights but it's frustrating to see the same dynamics over and over.