Robert Griffin, Phd
@rpgriffin.bsky.social
Associate Director of Research, DemocracyFund
Research Director for Voter Study Group
Previously at PRRI, Center for American Progress, Editorial Committee PS: Political Science & Politics
Polisci PhD
Personal website: rgriffin.crd.co
Research Director for Voter Study Group
Previously at PRRI, Center for American Progress, Editorial Committee PS: Political Science & Politics
Polisci PhD
Personal website: rgriffin.crd.co
Not sure what will count as substantive here but I think the addition of the voter validation stuff is valuable.
It would suggest black turnout a) it didn't surpass white turnout in 08/12 (suggested by the results you linked to) and b) it's now ~indistinguishable from AAPI turnout (which is novel).
It would suggest black turnout a) it didn't surpass white turnout in 08/12 (suggested by the results you linked to) and b) it's now ~indistinguishable from AAPI turnout (which is novel).
October 8, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Not sure what will count as substantive here but I think the addition of the voter validation stuff is valuable.
It would suggest black turnout a) it didn't surpass white turnout in 08/12 (suggested by the results you linked to) and b) it's now ~indistinguishable from AAPI turnout (which is novel).
It would suggest black turnout a) it didn't surpass white turnout in 08/12 (suggested by the results you linked to) and b) it's now ~indistinguishable from AAPI turnout (which is novel).
We thought it possible to build estimates that did a better job.
The biggest methodological jumps are a) we incorporated voter validated survey data to adjust self-reported turnout rates and b) found that we could make sub-state adjustment to the CPS.
The biggest methodological jumps are a) we incorporated voter validated survey data to adjust self-reported turnout rates and b) found that we could make sub-state adjustment to the CPS.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
We thought it possible to build estimates that did a better job.
The biggest methodological jumps are a) we incorporated voter validated survey data to adjust self-reported turnout rates and b) found that we could make sub-state adjustment to the CPS.
The biggest methodological jumps are a) we incorporated voter validated survey data to adjust self-reported turnout rates and b) found that we could make sub-state adjustment to the CPS.
OK, now the nerdy part.
While other estimates exist out there, they all have issues: Not comparable over time, not based on open methodologies, based on private data, etc.
While other estimates exist out there, they all have issues: Not comparable over time, not based on open methodologies, based on private data, etc.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
OK, now the nerdy part.
While other estimates exist out there, they all have issues: Not comparable over time, not based on open methodologies, based on private data, etc.
While other estimates exist out there, they all have issues: Not comparable over time, not based on open methodologies, based on private data, etc.
It's not 100% clear why this is happening but we do offer a few potential explanations.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
It's not 100% clear why this is happening but we do offer a few potential explanations.
What's more, these estimates are likely underselling the story about black voters.
Our most exhaustive estimates - which incorporate voter validation data but are only available from 2006 onward - suggest that black turnout was even lower. Now likely on par with AAPI voters.
Our most exhaustive estimates - which incorporate voter validation data but are only available from 2006 onward - suggest that black turnout was even lower. Now likely on par with AAPI voters.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
What's more, these estimates are likely underselling the story about black voters.
Our most exhaustive estimates - which incorporate voter validation data but are only available from 2006 onward - suggest that black turnout was even lower. Now likely on par with AAPI voters.
Our most exhaustive estimates - which incorporate voter validation data but are only available from 2006 onward - suggest that black turnout was even lower. Now likely on par with AAPI voters.
Bonus chart - the turnout gap vs. whites.
Black voters - who essentially closed that gap in '08 + '12 - are back to 90s levels.
The gaps for Latino voters have remained steadily wide. While APPI voters are doing better than earlier periods, '24 still represented a decline.
Black voters - who essentially closed that gap in '08 + '12 - are back to 90s levels.
The gaps for Latino voters have remained steadily wide. While APPI voters are doing better than earlier periods, '24 still represented a decline.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Bonus chart - the turnout gap vs. whites.
Black voters - who essentially closed that gap in '08 + '12 - are back to 90s levels.
The gaps for Latino voters have remained steadily wide. While APPI voters are doing better than earlier periods, '24 still represented a decline.
Black voters - who essentially closed that gap in '08 + '12 - are back to 90s levels.
The gaps for Latino voters have remained steadily wide. While APPI voters are doing better than earlier periods, '24 still represented a decline.
New piece from me @chriswarshaw.bsky.social , @devincaughey.bsky.social , and Bernard Fraga.
Story: though we've entered a high turnout era, turnout gaps between racial groups have reemerged.
Nerdy story: Using publicly available data, we've generated new, reliable turnout estimates over time.
Story: though we've entered a high turnout era, turnout gaps between racial groups have reemerged.
Nerdy story: Using publicly available data, we've generated new, reliable turnout estimates over time.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
New piece from me @chriswarshaw.bsky.social , @devincaughey.bsky.social , and Bernard Fraga.
Story: though we've entered a high turnout era, turnout gaps between racial groups have reemerged.
Nerdy story: Using publicly available data, we've generated new, reliable turnout estimates over time.
Story: though we've entered a high turnout era, turnout gaps between racial groups have reemerged.
Nerdy story: Using publicly available data, we've generated new, reliable turnout estimates over time.
Be cautious if...
-different polls are telling you different things
-results are really surprising
-results are about a ~hard to survey population
I'd say "Trump unfavorables dropped 20pts in two weeks with young voters" matches about 2.3/3.0 of those statements.
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
-different polls are telling you different things
-results are really surprising
-results are about a ~hard to survey population
I'd say "Trump unfavorables dropped 20pts in two weeks with young voters" matches about 2.3/3.0 of those statements.
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
November 22, 2024 at 8:03 PM
Be cautious if...
-different polls are telling you different things
-results are really surprising
-results are about a ~hard to survey population
I'd say "Trump unfavorables dropped 20pts in two weeks with young voters" matches about 2.3/3.0 of those statements.
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
-different polls are telling you different things
-results are really surprising
-results are about a ~hard to survey population
I'd say "Trump unfavorables dropped 20pts in two weeks with young voters" matches about 2.3/3.0 of those statements.
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
What I find frustrating about this particular topic is the number of "researcher degrees of freedom".
The party closer to median voters varies not only by topic (immigration vs healthcare) but even varies within topic like immigration (which is one of the foci of this piece).
The party closer to median voters varies not only by topic (immigration vs healthcare) but even varies within topic like immigration (which is one of the foci of this piece).
November 15, 2024 at 1:46 PM
What I find frustrating about this particular topic is the number of "researcher degrees of freedom".
The party closer to median voters varies not only by topic (immigration vs healthcare) but even varies within topic like immigration (which is one of the foci of this piece).
The party closer to median voters varies not only by topic (immigration vs healthcare) but even varies within topic like immigration (which is one of the foci of this piece).
As the power turns,
So do their concerns,
Economy's the best,
Or it's in distress,
Based on party lines.
So do their concerns,
Economy's the best,
Or it's in distress,
Based on party lines.
November 11, 2024 at 2:32 AM
As the power turns,
So do their concerns,
Economy's the best,
Or it's in distress,
Based on party lines.
So do their concerns,
Economy's the best,
Or it's in distress,
Based on party lines.
