Rohit
@rohitchak.bsky.social
It's crazy that media outlets are doing seat projections when Reforms lead is only 5 points and we're 4 years out from a general election.
If Labour come back and win, it wouldn't even register in the top 1000 political comebacks.
If Labour come back and win, it wouldn't even register in the top 1000 political comebacks.
December 23, 2025 at 10:04 AM
It's crazy that media outlets are doing seat projections when Reforms lead is only 5 points and we're 4 years out from a general election.
If Labour come back and win, it wouldn't even register in the top 1000 political comebacks.
If Labour come back and win, it wouldn't even register in the top 1000 political comebacks.
Lobby journalists are the most entitled group of people in the country imo.
They pretend like they have the most important job ever, even though all they do is twist everything to fit whatever narrative they want to push. They're a net negative to society and dont deserve their influence.
They pretend like they have the most important job ever, even though all they do is twist everything to fit whatever narrative they want to push. They're a net negative to society and dont deserve their influence.
December 18, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Lobby journalists are the most entitled group of people in the country imo.
They pretend like they have the most important job ever, even though all they do is twist everything to fit whatever narrative they want to push. They're a net negative to society and dont deserve their influence.
They pretend like they have the most important job ever, even though all they do is twist everything to fit whatever narrative they want to push. They're a net negative to society and dont deserve their influence.
Feel like my prediction from a month ago was pretty accurate.
There's now a 50/50 chance of a Feb cut. I think with lower oil/gas prices and softening food inflation, we could see both a Feb and April cut. Still think the bank is putting too much emphasis on inflation and not enough on unemployment
There's now a 50/50 chance of a Feb cut. I think with lower oil/gas prices and softening food inflation, we could see both a Feb and April cut. Still think the bank is putting too much emphasis on inflation and not enough on unemployment
This along with the unemployment data guarantees a december interest rate cut. Also think the BOE might accelerate rate cuts going into next year, potentially bringing us to the neutral rate of 2.5% by the end of 2026/early 2027
December 18, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Feel like my prediction from a month ago was pretty accurate.
There's now a 50/50 chance of a Feb cut. I think with lower oil/gas prices and softening food inflation, we could see both a Feb and April cut. Still think the bank is putting too much emphasis on inflation and not enough on unemployment
There's now a 50/50 chance of a Feb cut. I think with lower oil/gas prices and softening food inflation, we could see both a Feb and April cut. Still think the bank is putting too much emphasis on inflation and not enough on unemployment
The opinion of a former MPC member does not matter.
Out of the 9 current MPC memebers, 4 are predicted to vote for a cut, 4 for a hold, with Andrew Bailey (the governor of the BOE) as the swing vote. As Bailey has indicated that he favours lowering rates, you should expect a cut tommorow.
Out of the 9 current MPC memebers, 4 are predicted to vote for a cut, 4 for a hold, with Andrew Bailey (the governor of the BOE) as the swing vote. As Bailey has indicated that he favours lowering rates, you should expect a cut tommorow.
December 17, 2025 at 11:57 AM
The opinion of a former MPC member does not matter.
Out of the 9 current MPC memebers, 4 are predicted to vote for a cut, 4 for a hold, with Andrew Bailey (the governor of the BOE) as the swing vote. As Bailey has indicated that he favours lowering rates, you should expect a cut tommorow.
Out of the 9 current MPC memebers, 4 are predicted to vote for a cut, 4 for a hold, with Andrew Bailey (the governor of the BOE) as the swing vote. As Bailey has indicated that he favours lowering rates, you should expect a cut tommorow.
Think its pretty clear that the disinformation is Russian funded considering the scale at which it is pushed on social media.
This, alongside things such as the arson attack on Starmer's family home, shows how serious the threat is and needs the media to take a stand against reposting these lies.
This, alongside things such as the arson attack on Starmer's family home, shows how serious the threat is and needs the media to take a stand against reposting these lies.
December 13, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Think its pretty clear that the disinformation is Russian funded considering the scale at which it is pushed on social media.
This, alongside things such as the arson attack on Starmer's family home, shows how serious the threat is and needs the media to take a stand against reposting these lies.
This, alongside things such as the arson attack on Starmer's family home, shows how serious the threat is and needs the media to take a stand against reposting these lies.
I mean you can look at Wes Streeting's recent comments about the BMA RDC chair and you can see that the BMA is being anything but neutral. She has shown me the correspondence from the BMA and they are definitely pushing members to vote no - even if their official position is to be neutral.
December 11, 2025 at 4:12 PM
I mean you can look at Wes Streeting's recent comments about the BMA RDC chair and you can see that the BMA is being anything but neutral. She has shown me the correspondence from the BMA and they are definitely pushing members to vote no - even if their official position is to be neutral.
Interesting that the supposedly now neutral chair of Ofcom Michael Grade is voting along party lines. Surely no issue to see there.
December 11, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Interesting that the supposedly now neutral chair of Ofcom Michael Grade is voting along party lines. Surely no issue to see there.
Maybe officially they aren't, but she told me that through the email with the offer and messaging since, the BMA said that because there is no movement on pay, members should vote no.
December 10, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Maybe officially they aren't, but she told me that through the email with the offer and messaging since, the BMA said that because there is no movement on pay, members should vote no.
Important to note that the BMA are recommending its members to vote no on friday. Source: my sister is a BMA member
December 10, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Important to note that the BMA are recommending its members to vote no on friday. Source: my sister is a BMA member
I would assume there's a ton of bureaucracy involved with every new account that is set up/managed which is why this process is taking so long. Despite that, I think think Tim Allan is doing a good job as his new comms director and hopefully the improvements keep on coming.
December 9, 2025 at 10:29 AM
I would assume there's a ton of bureaucracy involved with every new account that is set up/managed which is why this process is taking so long. Despite that, I think think Tim Allan is doing a good job as his new comms director and hopefully the improvements keep on coming.
The most frustrating thing is the media could make these charts themselves, its not like they're lacking in resources to do so.
Yet they will cover small boats extensively but cherry pick data and completely change their methodology in order to fit editorial lines.
Drives me insane.
Yet they will cover small boats extensively but cherry pick data and completely change their methodology in order to fit editorial lines.
Drives me insane.
December 1, 2025 at 10:03 PM
The most frustrating thing is the media could make these charts themselves, its not like they're lacking in resources to do so.
Yet they will cover small boats extensively but cherry pick data and completely change their methodology in order to fit editorial lines.
Drives me insane.
Yet they will cover small boats extensively but cherry pick data and completely change their methodology in order to fit editorial lines.
Drives me insane.
Ever since Reform started dropping in the polls in the past few weeks the hysteria from the media and opposition parties has gone into overdrive.
They can see what I see as well, which is lower rates and lower inflation over the next few years, which means higher consumer confidence and growth.
They can see what I see as well, which is lower rates and lower inflation over the next few years, which means higher consumer confidence and growth.
December 1, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Ever since Reform started dropping in the polls in the past few weeks the hysteria from the media and opposition parties has gone into overdrive.
They can see what I see as well, which is lower rates and lower inflation over the next few years, which means higher consumer confidence and growth.
They can see what I see as well, which is lower rates and lower inflation over the next few years, which means higher consumer confidence and growth.
They could've redone their productivity modelling at the start of last year and it would've stopped Hunt from putting in last minute massive NI tax cuts which left a massive hole for Labour to fill at the next budget.
November 28, 2025 at 1:18 PM
They could've redone their productivity modelling at the start of last year and it would've stopped Hunt from putting in last minute massive NI tax cuts which left a massive hole for Labour to fill at the next budget.
They can only forecast current plans. As of right now there is no pip reforms that can be sent to the OBR because the Timms review concludes next summer. Also the government has other labour market reforms that should be coming out soon that will probably be in the next OBR forecast
November 27, 2025 at 11:37 AM
They can only forecast current plans. As of right now there is no pip reforms that can be sent to the OBR because the Timms review concludes next summer. Also the government has other labour market reforms that should be coming out soon that will probably be in the next OBR forecast
I'm not sure, I was busy so I missed the last bit of her speech. Again she might have announced it, in which case just ignore my previous comment
November 26, 2025 at 2:55 PM
I'm not sure, I was busy so I missed the last bit of her speech. Again she might have announced it, in which case just ignore my previous comment
I noticed that the Chancellor didn't announce any OBR reforms (unless I missed it) such as moving to 1 fiscal forecast a year. Makes me think she wants that spring forecast just before the May elections because she thinks we can beat the current forecast.
November 26, 2025 at 2:02 PM
I noticed that the Chancellor didn't announce any OBR reforms (unless I missed it) such as moving to 1 fiscal forecast a year. Makes me think she wants that spring forecast just before the May elections because she thinks we can beat the current forecast.
This is because inflation was higher in the UK this year because of measures like employer NI that came into place at the start of this tax year. The new inflation cutting measures would come in at the start of the next tax year, leading to a big drop in YoY inflation from April 2026 onwards.
November 13, 2025 at 11:32 AM
This is because inflation was higher in the UK this year because of measures like employer NI that came into place at the start of this tax year. The new inflation cutting measures would come in at the start of the next tax year, leading to a big drop in YoY inflation from April 2026 onwards.
I would say maybe a 10-20% chance, much more likely they just increase the pace of 25bp cuts. If theres big energy price cutting measures in the budget as they've been suggesting, we could see 2-3 cuts before the May elections (including December).
November 13, 2025 at 11:32 AM
I would say maybe a 10-20% chance, much more likely they just increase the pace of 25bp cuts. If theres big energy price cutting measures in the budget as they've been suggesting, we could see 2-3 cuts before the May elections (including December).
This along with the unemployment data guarantees a december interest rate cut. Also think the BOE might accelerate rate cuts going into next year, potentially bringing us to the neutral rate of 2.5% by the end of 2026/early 2027
November 13, 2025 at 10:39 AM
This along with the unemployment data guarantees a december interest rate cut. Also think the BOE might accelerate rate cuts going into next year, potentially bringing us to the neutral rate of 2.5% by the end of 2026/early 2027
Don't think they can, I think the appointment has to be led by the boards nomination committee as under the terms of the royal charter. Only silver lining is whoever is put forward knows they wont be protected by the government anymore, or the board, as for most of them, their days are numbered.
November 9, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Don't think they can, I think the appointment has to be led by the boards nomination committee as under the terms of the royal charter. Only silver lining is whoever is put forward knows they wont be protected by the government anymore, or the board, as for most of them, their days are numbered.
Thats what the BBC charter is for - It lasts a decade and is due to run out on December 31 2027. Thats why the government has been quiet on the BBC so far, they were hoping to replace Gibb and co from the board by then and with a new charter could start to fix it.
November 9, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Thats what the BBC charter is for - It lasts a decade and is due to run out on December 31 2027. Thats why the government has been quiet on the BBC so far, they were hoping to replace Gibb and co from the board by then and with a new charter could start to fix it.
At that point to raise funds you're better off just increasing income tax by 1p instead of trying to cut NI at the same time
November 7, 2025 at 1:07 PM
At that point to raise funds you're better off just increasing income tax by 1p instead of trying to cut NI at the same time
If you tried to exclude the 50k-125k tax band then you would have to raise the top rate tax band to something like 60%+ I believe. With rates at that level it would have other distorting effects to the economy which is not advisable
November 7, 2025 at 1:03 PM
If you tried to exclude the 50k-125k tax band then you would have to raise the top rate tax band to something like 60%+ I believe. With rates at that level it would have other distorting effects to the economy which is not advisable
Would require a significant increase if you applied it to only the higher rates of income tax. Would have to look up the numbers to figure out how much exactly. The biggest losers would probably be young professionals like doctors who would have to pay thousands more in income tax.
November 7, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Would require a significant increase if you applied it to only the higher rates of income tax. Would have to look up the numbers to figure out how much exactly. The biggest losers would probably be young professionals like doctors who would have to pay thousands more in income tax.
It raises money mainly from those who pay income tax but not NI, so pensioners, landlords and the self-employed, whilst not affecting those who get their income from employment.
Raising taxes on pensioners in particular is a vote killer so thats why it wont happen imo.
Raising taxes on pensioners in particular is a vote killer so thats why it wont happen imo.
November 7, 2025 at 12:48 PM
It raises money mainly from those who pay income tax but not NI, so pensioners, landlords and the self-employed, whilst not affecting those who get their income from employment.
Raising taxes on pensioners in particular is a vote killer so thats why it wont happen imo.
Raising taxes on pensioners in particular is a vote killer so thats why it wont happen imo.