And yet…

Has been very clear for a very long time the tax pledges would not hold - e.g. further defence spend beyond 2.7% in 2028 is unfunded

But also - incredible Reeves did not learn her lesson and keep more room for manoeuvre on tax at the last Budget - instead committing to not come back for more..!

He is surprised at muted British reaction to arson by Russian proxies at Keir Starmer’s former home

But - Russia does this, and the government’s official response is… what?

Nothing except ‘senior Whitehall figures’ in the FT in May (discussions being held) and no mention by the PM in Commons

I think we may be disappointed

Sacrilège!

Important stuff this - UK gov wants “ambitious new science and technology partnership” with “like minded” US according to its security strategy

Critics would say deepens reliance and exposure to coercion

Compare and contrast with French security strategy published only a couple of weeks later…

First we heard Downing Street were caught ‘off guard’ and then ‘irritated’ at countries like Canada and Italy agreeing to the new target

Now leading attempts to delay by 3 years

UK’s approach to defence spend a curious risk tolerance of fiscal position before security threat

From @theipaper.com

A plea to not just take lessons from Ukraine as being unquestionably emblematic of any future conflict the UK may need to deter or fight in - the littorals of the Black Sea are not the same as the Atlantic

Carriers are good, actually!

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/views/letter...

I think the key point regarding Polanski vs his Westminster based opponents - the information environment has significantly shifted

4 yrs out from an election - could still prove to be troublesome for Labour

Also more Mayors and devo in England - how will that influence the parties at Westminster?

New Type 26 and Type 31 frigates are under construction, albeit delayed and over budget, meaning the UK is in an 'unavoidable frigate gap' until at least 2028.

Intelligence assessments from NATO allies state Russia could start a large-scale war in Europe within five years.

The Royal and French Navies still remain the most capable in Europe, with ambitions of global reach.

Given the UK's geography, expertise, and historic capability in maritime domain, there will be an expectation from European NATO allies for the UK to step up to the mantle.

What would this mean?

The decline of the RN and its logistical force, the Royal Fleet Auxiliary, has continued unabated since 1990 - and arguably is at its weakest ever.

A key question for the SDR will be to what degree the UK should focus on projecting land power, or replacing US strengths in maritime and air.

Contributed some background to the BBC on critical infrastructure resilience policy following the #Heathrow substation fire 👇

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Could be harbinger of more integration of civil resilience with national defence.. but we've been here before many times over (see assessment of 2015 National Security Strategy)

Will wait to see whether this government can deliver where others have stumbled

Reflecting on my attempts to explain Russian behaviour in 2017

John Dunlop’s 2004 piece on Aleksandr Dugin well worth a read: tec.fsi.stanford.edu/docs/aleksan...

Christmas Eve means (vegetarian) sausage rolls

Hello new followers! Will be posting updates from my research on societal resilience and other topics that pique my interest over the months ahead

Until then however.. have a photo from my walk today in Kent