Robert Osfield
@robertosfield.bsky.social
Project lead of open source VulkanSceneGraph and OpenSceneGraph projects, software consultant, runner, tech transition tracker and family man.
One of things I like about simplified models is that are simple to update to fit data as it comes out and look at different broad scenarios to see their impact.
For instance changing demand growth from linear growth to leveling off will have a dramatic effect on timing of the phase out of oil/gas.
For instance changing demand growth from linear growth to leveling off will have a dramatic effect on timing of the phase out of oil/gas.
November 11, 2025 at 12:16 PM
One of things I like about simplified models is that are simple to update to fit data as it comes out and look at different broad scenarios to see their impact.
For instance changing demand growth from linear growth to leveling off will have a dramatic effect on timing of the phase out of oil/gas.
For instance changing demand growth from linear growth to leveling off will have a dramatic effect on timing of the phase out of oil/gas.
Ember's estimate of 50% demand increase by 2100 is very different to 100% by 2060.
I'm OK with that, these are estimates based on assumptions where the systems involved are often very non linear.
We need these projections, but we also will require them to be updated regularly as data comes in.
I'm OK with that, these are estimates based on assumptions where the systems involved are often very non linear.
We need these projections, but we also will require them to be updated regularly as data comes in.
November 11, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Ember's estimate of 50% demand increase by 2100 is very different to 100% by 2060.
I'm OK with that, these are estimates based on assumptions where the systems involved are often very non linear.
We need these projections, but we also will require them to be updated regularly as data comes in.
I'm OK with that, these are estimates based on assumptions where the systems involved are often very non linear.
We need these projections, but we also will require them to be updated regularly as data comes in.
I expect we'll see significant changes in final energy demand over the next decade so we'll have a clearer picture of the slope of demand growth.
For me it doesn't seem credible that the present demand growth will be maintained through to 2040, let alone 2060 and beyond.
For me it doesn't seem credible that the present demand growth will be maintained through to 2040, let alone 2060 and beyond.
November 11, 2025 at 12:00 PM
I expect we'll see significant changes in final energy demand over the next decade so we'll have a clearer picture of the slope of demand growth.
For me it doesn't seem credible that the present demand growth will be maintained through to 2040, let alone 2060 and beyond.
For me it doesn't seem credible that the present demand growth will be maintained through to 2040, let alone 2060 and beyond.
Typo alert: 1/4 rather than 1.4 :-)
November 11, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Typo alert: 1/4 rather than 1.4 :-)
Things could change quite fast with Solar now the cheapest form a energy in many developing nations, and with Solar being easy to install in a distributed way that households and business can just go straight to generator their own power.
Pakistan is an example of this.
Pakistan is an example of this.
November 11, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Things could change quite fast with Solar now the cheapest form a energy in many developing nations, and with Solar being easy to install in a distributed way that households and business can just go straight to generator their own power.
Pakistan is an example of this.
Pakistan is an example of this.
I expect for a few more years we'll see developing economies keep increasing demand at a faster rate than developed economies reducing demand, this will look linear linear growth.
However, as the developing economies mature their demand will also peak and then fall as they become more efficient.
However, as the developing economies mature their demand will also peak and then fall as they become more efficient.
November 11, 2025 at 11:32 AM
I expect for a few more years we'll see developing economies keep increasing demand at a faster rate than developed economies reducing demand, this will look linear linear growth.
However, as the developing economies mature their demand will also peak and then fall as they become more efficient.
However, as the developing economies mature their demand will also peak and then fall as they become more efficient.
The drop in electricity demand in the past 2 decades happened while UK population increased 13%.
In 2005 we required 6.71TWh per Million.
In 2024 we required 4.58TWh per Million.
We required 46% more electricity per person 20 years ago!
ourworldindata.org/grapher/popu...
In 2005 we required 6.71TWh per Million.
In 2024 we required 4.58TWh per Million.
We required 46% more electricity per person 20 years ago!
ourworldindata.org/grapher/popu...
Population
Future projections are based on the UN medium scenario.
ourworldindata.org
November 11, 2025 at 10:27 AM
The drop in electricity demand in the past 2 decades happened while UK population increased 13%.
In 2005 we required 6.71TWh per Million.
In 2024 we required 4.58TWh per Million.
We required 46% more electricity per person 20 years ago!
ourworldindata.org/grapher/popu...
In 2005 we required 6.71TWh per Million.
In 2024 we required 4.58TWh per Million.
We required 46% more electricity per person 20 years ago!
ourworldindata.org/grapher/popu...
At national scale we can also see how energy demand isn't always upward.
Here in the UK electricity demand has fallen steadily over the past 2 decades.
ourworldindata.org/grapher/elec...
Here in the UK electricity demand has fallen steadily over the past 2 decades.
ourworldindata.org/grapher/elec...
November 11, 2025 at 10:18 AM
At national scale we can also see how energy demand isn't always upward.
Here in the UK electricity demand has fallen steadily over the past 2 decades.
ourworldindata.org/grapher/elec...
Here in the UK electricity demand has fallen steadily over the past 2 decades.
ourworldindata.org/grapher/elec...
Personally, I think efficiency improvements achieved by electrification will likely reduce energy demand per capita.
For instance, our household transitioned from Gas heating and Diesel car to Heat-pump and Battery Electric Car and have reduced heating and transport energy demand to a 1/4.
For instance, our household transitioned from Gas heating and Diesel car to Heat-pump and Battery Electric Car and have reduced heating and transport energy demand to a 1/4.
November 11, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Personally, I think efficiency improvements achieved by electrification will likely reduce energy demand per capita.
For instance, our household transitioned from Gas heating and Diesel car to Heat-pump and Battery Electric Car and have reduced heating and transport energy demand to a 1/4.
For instance, our household transitioned from Gas heating and Diesel car to Heat-pump and Battery Electric Car and have reduced heating and transport energy demand to a 1/4.
Pushing the primary energy fallacy is just what fossil fuel diehards do to make it seem like the task is greater than it is.
Your trolling is so consistent doomerist and void of relevant perspective it seems like a deliberate attempt to slow transition.
Your trolling is so consistent doomerist and void of relevant perspective it seems like a deliberate attempt to slow transition.
November 11, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Pushing the primary energy fallacy is just what fossil fuel diehards do to make it seem like the task is greater than it is.
Your trolling is so consistent doomerist and void of relevant perspective it seems like a deliberate attempt to slow transition.
Your trolling is so consistent doomerist and void of relevant perspective it seems like a deliberate attempt to slow transition.
Yawn. Keeping pushing doomerism based on out of date data and ideas.
Focus on current data. Understand learning curves and exponential growth that it enables.
Focus on current data. Understand learning curves and exponential growth that it enables.
November 10, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Yawn. Keeping pushing doomerism based on out of date data and ideas.
Focus on current data. Understand learning curves and exponential growth that it enables.
Focus on current data. Understand learning curves and exponential growth that it enables.
The plot you shared is up to 2022.
The plot that @janrosenow.bsky.social posted is up to 2024. If you look at that one you'll see a peak in 2022, then coal usage drops rapidly there after.
So... we can expect that CO2 emissions will have dropped since 2022 as well.
Up to date data is CRUCIAL.
The plot that @janrosenow.bsky.social posted is up to 2024. If you look at that one you'll see a peak in 2022, then coal usage drops rapidly there after.
So... we can expect that CO2 emissions will have dropped since 2022 as well.
Up to date data is CRUCIAL.
November 10, 2025 at 5:26 PM
The plot you shared is up to 2022.
The plot that @janrosenow.bsky.social posted is up to 2024. If you look at that one you'll see a peak in 2022, then coal usage drops rapidly there after.
So... we can expect that CO2 emissions will have dropped since 2022 as well.
Up to date data is CRUCIAL.
The plot that @janrosenow.bsky.social posted is up to 2024. If you look at that one you'll see a peak in 2022, then coal usage drops rapidly there after.
So... we can expect that CO2 emissions will have dropped since 2022 as well.
Up to date data is CRUCIAL.
You say you are not anti EV but then go on to propagate standard anti EV FUD.
Here in Europe our Grid are increasingly dominated by non fossil fuel generation.
EVs also mostly get charged overnight when the grid is not stressed at all. They actually help balance the grid.
Here in Europe our Grid are increasingly dominated by non fossil fuel generation.
EVs also mostly get charged overnight when the grid is not stressed at all. They actually help balance the grid.
November 9, 2025 at 2:03 PM
You say you are not anti EV but then go on to propagate standard anti EV FUD.
Here in Europe our Grid are increasingly dominated by non fossil fuel generation.
EVs also mostly get charged overnight when the grid is not stressed at all. They actually help balance the grid.
Here in Europe our Grid are increasingly dominated by non fossil fuel generation.
EVs also mostly get charged overnight when the grid is not stressed at all. They actually help balance the grid.
Up to date data is crucial as solar and battery costs have fallen expoentially, enabling exponential growth, so even data from 2 years can be misleading.
Analysts have for too long made linear projections of growth of technology adoption but the transitions more often follow S-Curves.
Analysts have for too long made linear projections of growth of technology adoption but the transitions more often follow S-Curves.
November 8, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Up to date data is crucial as solar and battery costs have fallen expoentially, enabling exponential growth, so even data from 2 years can be misleading.
Analysts have for too long made linear projections of growth of technology adoption but the transitions more often follow S-Curves.
Analysts have for too long made linear projections of growth of technology adoption but the transitions more often follow S-Curves.
Again up to date facts about what is happening worldwide paints a different picture.
Over the past year that has been rapid growth of solar panels and batteries right across the world. Nations that were laggards in Renewables have turned things around.
Low cost Renewables from China drives this.
Over the past year that has been rapid growth of solar panels and batteries right across the world. Nations that were laggards in Renewables have turned things around.
Low cost Renewables from China drives this.
November 8, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Again up to date facts about what is happening worldwide paints a different picture.
Over the past year that has been rapid growth of solar panels and batteries right across the world. Nations that were laggards in Renewables have turned things around.
Low cost Renewables from China drives this.
Over the past year that has been rapid growth of solar panels and batteries right across the world. Nations that were laggards in Renewables have turned things around.
Low cost Renewables from China drives this.
@janrosenow.bsky.social's original post was about Europe, so just looking at Europe we can see how far we've come in moving away from Coal.
November 7, 2025 at 4:00 PM
@janrosenow.bsky.social's original post was about Europe, so just looking at Europe we can see how far we've come in moving away from Coal.
That graph is just so wrong.
For a clearer picture of what is going on here's the actual up to date data:
ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal...
For a clearer picture of what is going on here's the actual up to date data:
ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal...
November 7, 2025 at 3:53 PM
That graph is just so wrong.
For a clearer picture of what is going on here's the actual up to date data:
ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal...
For a clearer picture of what is going on here's the actual up to date data:
ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal...
The lack of production of affordable and clean hydrogen is just one of the problems.
Transporting it & using it are neither practical nor cost effective compared to just direct electrification.
It's a solution looking for problems that can already be more easily and cheaply solved in other ways.
Transporting it & using it are neither practical nor cost effective compared to just direct electrification.
It's a solution looking for problems that can already be more easily and cheaply solved in other ways.
November 6, 2025 at 6:19 PM
The lack of production of affordable and clean hydrogen is just one of the problems.
Transporting it & using it are neither practical nor cost effective compared to just direct electrification.
It's a solution looking for problems that can already be more easily and cheaply solved in other ways.
Transporting it & using it are neither practical nor cost effective compared to just direct electrification.
It's a solution looking for problems that can already be more easily and cheaply solved in other ways.
The fossil fuel industry are happy to propagate such delusions as they can delay making a decision to move away from Gas and Oil dependent heating and transport.
BEV and heat-pumps they say are "too expensive and impractical" so best to wait for these great Hydrogen solutions to become "reality."
BEV and heat-pumps they say are "too expensive and impractical" so best to wait for these great Hydrogen solutions to become "reality."
November 6, 2025 at 6:15 PM
The fossil fuel industry are happy to propagate such delusions as they can delay making a decision to move away from Gas and Oil dependent heating and transport.
BEV and heat-pumps they say are "too expensive and impractical" so best to wait for these great Hydrogen solutions to become "reality."
BEV and heat-pumps they say are "too expensive and impractical" so best to wait for these great Hydrogen solutions to become "reality."
This debate didn't touch upon it, but there are still Hydrogen proponents pushing Hydrogen for transport and heating, the lower rungs on @mliebreich.bsky.social's chart.
They'd have my household move to a Hydrogen fuel cell or ICE car and Hydrogen Ready Boiler rather get a BEV and Heat-pump.
They'd have my household move to a Hydrogen fuel cell or ICE car and Hydrogen Ready Boiler rather get a BEV and Heat-pump.
November 6, 2025 at 6:12 PM
This debate didn't touch upon it, but there are still Hydrogen proponents pushing Hydrogen for transport and heating, the lower rungs on @mliebreich.bsky.social's chart.
They'd have my household move to a Hydrogen fuel cell or ICE car and Hydrogen Ready Boiler rather get a BEV and Heat-pump.
They'd have my household move to a Hydrogen fuel cell or ICE car and Hydrogen Ready Boiler rather get a BEV and Heat-pump.