Robbie Orvis
@robbieorvis.bsky.social
Senior Director, Modeling and Analysis
@energyinnovation.bsky.social. Working to help deploy clean energy technologies, drive down costs , and cut greenhouse gas emissions through smart and innovative policy. Posts are my own.
@energyinnovation.bsky.social. Working to help deploy clean energy technologies, drive down costs , and cut greenhouse gas emissions through smart and innovative policy. Posts are my own.
Tesla sold a boatload of these credits in 2023/2024 and they are making money off of them. These are completely separate from NHTSA fuel economy credits.
July 7, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Tesla sold a boatload of these credits in 2023/2024 and they are making money off of them. These are completely separate from NHTSA fuel economy credits.
And of course these tax credit repeals and changes mean a lot less investment in US manufacturing and a lot fewer jobs. We find job losses of up to 900k in 2032
July 3, 2025 at 1:06 PM
And of course these tax credit repeals and changes mean a lot less investment in US manufacturing and a lot fewer jobs. We find job losses of up to 900k in 2032
Although final text is a slight improvement on the original House text, it still causes a massive decrease in new electricity capacity because of how much more expensive it makes new capacity. We find 340 GW less new capacity added by 2035
July 3, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Although final text is a slight improvement on the original House text, it still causes a massive decrease in new electricity capacity because of how much more expensive it makes new capacity. We find 340 GW less new capacity added by 2035
These manufacturing and job losses take a huge toll on U.S. GDP. Over the budget window, total GDP drops by more than $1.1 trillion from less U.S. investment, less manufacturing, and lower deployment of clean electricity.
June 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
These manufacturing and job losses take a huge toll on U.S. GDP. Over the budget window, total GDP drops by more than $1.1 trillion from less U.S. investment, less manufacturing, and lower deployment of clean electricity.
Manufacturing would take a significant hit. For example, we find that more than 300 GWh of planned battery manufacturing capacity would be cancelled, leading to 31,000 job losses. Across the economy, from all elements of the bill we modeled, we find job losses of 840,000 in 2030 and 790,000 in 2035.
June 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Manufacturing would take a significant hit. For example, we find that more than 300 GWh of planned battery manufacturing capacity would be cancelled, leading to 31,000 job losses. Across the economy, from all elements of the bill we modeled, we find job losses of 840,000 in 2030 and 790,000 in 2035.
As noted - natural gas price futures have risen significantly in the last couple of years (AEO2025 vs AEO2023 is about 50% higher) and additional demand for gas will further raise prices, driving even higher spending. Greater dependence on gasoline also drives up gasoline prices significantly.
June 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
As noted - natural gas price futures have risen significantly in the last couple of years (AEO2025 vs AEO2023 is about 50% higher) and additional demand for gas will further raise prices, driving even higher spending. Greater dependence on gasoline also drives up gasoline prices significantly.
The changes envisioned in OBBBA lead to a dramatic decrease in electricity deployment by making clean electricity more expensive during a time of rising of natural gas prices and resurgent electricity demand. This makes the grid more dependent on natural gas.
June 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
The changes envisioned in OBBBA lead to a dramatic decrease in electricity deployment by making clean electricity more expensive during a time of rising of natural gas prices and resurgent electricity demand. This makes the grid more dependent on natural gas.
Some states see upwards of $900 per year in higher household energy costs in our EI House OBBBA Scenario. Why?
Two main reasons: 1) the loss of clean electricity tax credits makes electricity much more expensive, significantly raising rates in some states and...
Two main reasons: 1) the loss of clean electricity tax credits makes electricity much more expensive, significantly raising rates in some states and...
June 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Some states see upwards of $900 per year in higher household energy costs in our EI House OBBBA Scenario. Why?
Two main reasons: 1) the loss of clean electricity tax credits makes electricity much more expensive, significantly raising rates in some states and...
Two main reasons: 1) the loss of clean electricity tax credits makes electricity much more expensive, significantly raising rates in some states and...
Finally, all that lost clean energy deployment drives up emissions. 130 MMT CO2e in 2030 and 260 MMT in 2035 (Note our modeling does not repeal power CO2 rules under CAA 111 and leaves in place the CA waiver for clean vehicles as we looked ONLY at the Reconciliation text).
May 18, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Finally, all that lost clean energy deployment drives up emissions. 130 MMT CO2e in 2030 and 260 MMT in 2035 (Note our modeling does not repeal power CO2 rules under CAA 111 and leaves in place the CA waiver for clean vehicles as we looked ONLY at the Reconciliation text).
Less investment also means fewer jobs from building and running those facilities. We find job losses of more than 1 million jobs in certain years. This is also likely a conservative estimate because we do not fully account for impacts to 45X which threaten all planned projects.
May 18, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Less investment also means fewer jobs from building and running those facilities. We find job losses of more than 1 million jobs in certain years. This is also likely a conservative estimate because we do not fully account for impacts to 45X which threaten all planned projects.
All that lost clean manufacturing and energy production causes GDP to fall by up to $200 billion per year. Over the Reconciliation budget window (2025-2034) there is a GDP loss of over $1 trillion.
May 18, 2025 at 1:40 PM
All that lost clean manufacturing and energy production causes GDP to fall by up to $200 billion per year. Over the Reconciliation budget window (2025-2034) there is a GDP loss of over $1 trillion.
By 2030 total household energy spending grows by $120/year per household, $40 from more spending on transport fuels and $80 on higher home energy costs. By 2035 this grows to $230/year per household.
May 18, 2025 at 1:40 PM
By 2030 total household energy spending grows by $120/year per household, $40 from more spending on transport fuels and $80 on higher home energy costs. By 2035 this grows to $230/year per household.
The bill would dramatically reduce new capacity additions to our grid: 114 GW less capacity and 302 GW less by 2035, at a time when demand is skyrocketing and reliability is a concern. Nearly all of this is less clean capacity.
May 18, 2025 at 1:40 PM
The bill would dramatically reduce new capacity additions to our grid: 114 GW less capacity and 302 GW less by 2035, at a time when demand is skyrocketing and reliability is a concern. Nearly all of this is less clean capacity.
THESE ARE NOT THE SAME.
One was caused entirely by the president’s actions. The other was due to a global pandemic and war. JFC.
One was caused entirely by the president’s actions. The other was due to a global pandemic and war. JFC.
May 1, 2025 at 5:57 PM
THESE ARE NOT THE SAME.
One was caused entirely by the president’s actions. The other was due to a global pandemic and war. JFC.
One was caused entirely by the president’s actions. The other was due to a global pandemic and war. JFC.
Across all cancelled or delayed projects since passage of IRA, the vast majority has been in GOP districts, based on this graphic from @politico.com
April 17, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Across all cancelled or delayed projects since passage of IRA, the vast majority has been in GOP districts, based on this graphic from @politico.com
Today we released new research showing how repealing federal clean energy tax credits and funding from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 would raise household energy bills, eliminate jobs, and shrink state economies. In this research we examine the effects for each of the lower 48 and nationally.
March 20, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Today we released new research showing how repealing federal clean energy tax credits and funding from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 would raise household energy bills, eliminate jobs, and shrink state economies. In this research we examine the effects for each of the lower 48 and nationally.
On a deadline to frantically finish something and windows, without warning, forces an update. Been stuck here for 10 minutes. There are no words…
March 20, 2025 at 2:41 AM
On a deadline to frantically finish something and windows, without warning, forces an update. Been stuck here for 10 minutes. There are no words…
Current state of Dem CR discussions.
March 12, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Current state of Dem CR discussions.
It's no surprise then that US automakers are expected to take a huge hit from new tariffs, with some analysts showing a >20%(!!!) hit to earnings for GM (same source as prior).
February 3, 2025 at 5:07 PM
It's no surprise then that US automakers are expected to take a huge hit from new tariffs, with some analysts showing a >20%(!!!) hit to earnings for GM (same source as prior).
US vehicle manufacturers are also being cut out of China, unsurprisingly, as China grows its domestic auto industry.
February 3, 2025 at 5:07 PM
US vehicle manufacturers are also being cut out of China, unsurprisingly, as China grows its domestic auto industry.
China's dominance as a vehicle supplier extends to ASEAN countries as well, largely displacing Japan as a supplier.
February 3, 2025 at 5:07 PM
China's dominance as a vehicle supplier extends to ASEAN countries as well, largely displacing Japan as a supplier.
Over the last 5 years, China has surpassed the U.S., South Korea, and Japan as the dominant source of European vehicle imports. Japan has competed but note the precipitous decline in U.S. and South Korean imports to the EU. These trends aren't going anywhere.
February 3, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Over the last 5 years, China has surpassed the U.S., South Korea, and Japan as the dominant source of European vehicle imports. Japan has competed but note the precipitous decline in U.S. and South Korean imports to the EU. These trends aren't going anywhere.
China's export share is growing as its production capacity exceeds its domestic demand for vehicles. This trend is also likely to continue as it sees demand for Chinese produced vehicles around the world.
February 3, 2025 at 5:07 PM
China's export share is growing as its production capacity exceeds its domestic demand for vehicles. This trend is also likely to continue as it sees demand for Chinese produced vehicles around the world.
China is now a dominant exporter of vehicles, combustion and electric. As Nat points out, China now produces 40% of autos globally, and that number is climbing.
February 3, 2025 at 5:07 PM
China is now a dominant exporter of vehicles, combustion and electric. As Nat points out, China now produces 40% of autos globally, and that number is climbing.
The structure of BEV incentives under IRA, and mainly the qualification that all leased BEVs qualify for a $7,500 credit but many purchased BEVs do not, has led to a dramatic increase in the share of BEVs that are leased. Source: www.coxautoinc.com/market-insig...
January 13, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The structure of BEV incentives under IRA, and mainly the qualification that all leased BEVs qualify for a $7,500 credit but many purchased BEVs do not, has led to a dramatic increase in the share of BEVs that are leased. Source: www.coxautoinc.com/market-insig...