bbor
LightNews LightNews
banner
robb.doering.ai
bbor
@robb.doering.ai
960 followers 3.9K following 7.9K posts
Terrified optimist, Kant stan, AI loon, and self-unemployed cognitive engineer — in that order! Begrudgingly [he/him]. Ostensibly here to discuss philosophy, but... y'know...

✊ 🏴 🇺🇸 El Pueblo Unido Jamás Será Vencido 🇺🇸 🚩 ✊
Posts Replies Media Videos
robb.doering.ai
It’s worth a skim—If your goal is to reduce trade deficits at any cost, then ‘tariff=weighted trade deficit’ doesn’t exactly sound crazy.

It’s a dumb, evil goal, but still somewhat internally-coherent. Fucking nationalists, this is why we can’t have nice things

www.persuasion.community/p/oren-cass
If you actually recognize that making things matters, that we would love to have high levels of trade but it needs to be balanced trade, then, in fact, having a tariff and putting a thumb on the scale for domestic production becomes a correction of an inefficiency that we' suffering from. Having a tariff says, look, you can import stuff if you have to or if you want to, but there's s going to be a cost associated with doing that, which means you're going to think a lot harder about what you can make here. If you're investing, maybe it makes sense to invest in building things here. The implication of a trade deficit is that we lost all of the manufacturing jobs in one area and created nothing new to offset it. That's an immediate problem for the health of our economy and for the trajectory of our growth.
April 3, 2025 at 9:51 PM
robb.doering.ai
Wow ok this is pretty definitive proof. This chucklefuck either consulted the same LLMs months before (this post is from Feb 8th) or they read his stuff!
One policy that we focus on at American Compassis is very big and broad and blunt, which is that we should have a global tariff. We should essentially say that anything coming into this country has a 10% tariff attached to it. That makes imports less attractive than domestic production and consumption. Yes, that's right. Now, I also think you ideally want to define that tariff as one that can go up or down over time, tied to the trade deficit. You want to say predictably over time that it's going to keep rising if it needs to to correct the trade deficit. Conversely, that can come back down if the trade deficit is in fact fading away as we start to do more of this stuff ourselves.
April 3, 2025 at 9:51 PM
robb.doering.ai
I feel like looking at trade balances is goofy, at least without a breakdown as part of the chart! Obv I’m just some naive rando, but this exact example is illuminating: AFAICT we aren’t making less, we’re just eating more
Graph showing that us food exports are at a high since 1995
April 3, 2025 at 5:14 PM
robb.doering.ai
Given that it only has 3.7% to leap up—and thus 96% to leap down—I’d say this is a pretty good hypothesis 🙃
Graph from the fed showing the unemployment rate is actually very, very low
April 3, 2025 at 2:21 PM
robb.doering.ai
I feel like this should be the headline for every news org that doesn’t want to get into the details for some reason: by the whitehouse’s own calculations, prices on imported goods are about to go up by HALF
The reciprocal tariffs were left-censored at zero. Higher minimum rates might be necessary to limit heterogeneity in rates and reduce transshipment. Tariff rates range from 0 to 99 percent. The unweighted average across deficit countries is 50 percent, and the unweighted average across the entire globe is 20 percent. Weighted by imports, the average across deficit countries is 45 percent, and the average across the entire globe is 41 percent. Standard deviations range from 20.5 to 31.8 percentage points.
April 3, 2025 at 2:10 PM
robb.doering.ai
Plz explain for the slow ones… commodities not specified according to kind sounds like finance crimes and/or weapons…?
A graph showing that Saudi exports spiked in 2023 via the category mentioned above, for some reason ($13B)
April 2, 2025 at 8:59 PM
robb.doering.ai
I mean, seems logical to this novice — matched the obvious reality that you can never be 100% certain of any belief, which is always nice when you can get it in math. Why disagree? For the procedural reasons he mentions around redoing proofs?
But when you transform to odds ratios, 0.502 and 0.503 go to 1.008 and 1.012, and 0.9999 and 0.99999 go to 9,999 and 99,999. And when you transform to log odds, 0.502 and 0.503 go to 0.03 decibels and 0.05 decibels, but 0.9999 and 0.99999 go to 40 decibels and 50 decibels. When you work in log odds, the distance between any two degrees of uncertainty equals the amount of evidence you would need to go from one to the other. That is, the log odds gives us a natural measure of spacing among degrees of confidence. Using the log odds exposes the fact that reaching infinite certainty requires infinitely strong evidence, just as infinite absurdity requires infinitely strong counterevidence. Furthermore, all sorts of standard theorems in probability have special cases if you try to plug 1s or 0s into them—like what happens if you try to do a Bayesian update on an observation to which you assigned probability 0.
April 1, 2025 at 2:00 PM
robb.doering.ai
Do you have any data to support that claim...?

trends.google.com/trends/explo...
Searches for "consumer confidence" are at a five-year high
March 31, 2025 at 5:52 PM
robb.doering.ai
This might be an interesting passage for those on the fence, from the book cited in OP:
In his home life, as in his intercourse with friends, and even with mere acquaintances, I think one might say that Karl Marx's main characteristics were his unbounded good-humor and his unlimited sympathy. His kindness and patience were really sublime. A less sweet-tempered man would have often been driven frantic by the constant interruptions, the continual demands made upon him by all sorts of people. That a refugee of the Commune a most unmitigated old bore, by the way—who had kept Marx three mortal hours, when at last told that time was pressing, and much work still had to be done, should reply "Mon cher Marx, je vous excuse" is characteristic of Marx's courtesy and kindness. As to this old bore, so to any man or woman whom he believed honest (and he gave of his precious time to not a few who sadly abused his generosity), Marx was always the most friendly and kindly of men. His power of "drawing out" people, of making them feel that he was interested in what interested them was marvelous. I have heard men of the most diverse callings and positions speak of his peculiar capacity for understanding them and their affairs. When he thought anyone really in earnest his patience was unlimited. No question was too trivial for him to answer, no argument too childish for serious discussion. His time and his vast learning were always at the service of any man or woman who seemed anxious to learn.
March 31, 2025 at 1:09 PM
robb.doering.ai
Figured I’d share the #Kagi version. It’s probably confirmation bias but both of these seem very in line with their respective companies target audiences lol
is it possible to be allergic to water is it possible to be pregnant on your period is it possible to be born with pink hair is it possible to lose a pound a day is it possible to learn this power is it possible to have purple eyes is it possible to have 3 breasts is it possible to reverse diabetes
March 28, 2025 at 5:55 AM
robb.doering.ai
The modern version lol
An image of a modern RGB gaming pc setup, where you can see the internal electronic components light up, along with a lit up keyboard.
March 25, 2025 at 3:31 PM
robb.doering.ai
Principal Skinner from the Simpson thinking intently, wondering if he’s out of touch
March 24, 2025 at 9:07 PM
robb.doering.ai
I am so, so sorry.
The famous arrested development meme with Vance and Hegseth badly photoshopped on, reading: Well, did it work for those people? No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but… but it might work for us.
March 24, 2025 at 6:36 PM
robb.doering.ai
Well that's terrifying--an era of moss, giant bugs, and massive spires of quasi-fungus feeding via vast networks of underground roots/mycelia, where boring animals first perfected their craft. Awfully glad I live now!

My only question is: why grow up if there's no photosynthesis...? #BioSky #SciSky
Well, it's like the post says: two giant arthropds swim through a shallow freshwater channel, while small plants and simple mosses are dwarfed by strange, tall dark columns of flesh.
March 24, 2025 at 3:19 PM
robb.doering.ai
Welcome! TIL it's "Sage" and not "SAGE" 😬

For my fellow curmudgeons, maybe a good time to share what I learned last week: Sage seems to be the most wholesome of the top 5 pubs! As of 2023 they had the most open articles per journal by far, and the second-most open articles overall. Thanks Sage
Data sourced from https://wordsrated.com/academic-publishers-statistics/, which is much more readable than I can make any alt text :)
March 24, 2025 at 1:20 PM
robb.doering.ai
Well put! That is what I was trying to express, for sure. God <=> the unexplainable

And only after writing that I’m young did I remember I’m almost 30 — how time flies! Coulda sworn I was still roughly a teenager…

Relevant #SMBC that I think about daily
A comic with two panels. First, “how it looked”, showing a woman growing from a young girl into an old lady. Then, “how it felt”, which shows the young girl holding up costume-like appearances with increasing consternation!
March 23, 2025 at 11:50 PM
robb.doering.ai
Fair — more of a massive unprecedented spike than a resurgence:
A graph showing true crime became popular in the late 80s, then spiked after Serial (~2012)
March 23, 2025 at 2:28 AM
robb.doering.ai
We should! But also, I recently learned that this similar document is the slightly more binding one (bc it’s a convention rather than a declaration), so maybe even more practical to tally
Part 3 (Articles 6 – 27) lists the rights themselves. These include rights to: physical integrity, in the form of the right to life and freedom from torture and slavery (Articles 6, 7, and 8); liberty and security of the person, in the form of freedom from arbitrary arrest and detention and the right to habeas corpus (Articles 9 – 11); procedural fairness in law, in the form of rights to due process, a fair and impartial trial, the presumption of innocence, and recognition as a person before the law (Articles 14, 15, and 16); individual liberty, in the form of the freedoms of movement, thought, conscience and religion, speech, association and assembly, family rights, the right to a nationality, and the right to privacy (Articles 12, 13, 17 – 24); prohibition by law of any propaganda for war as well as any advocacy of national or religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination, hostility or violence (Article 20); political participation, including the right to the right to vote (Article 25); Non-discrimination, minority rights and equality before the law (Articles 26 and 27). Many of these rights include specific actions which must be undertaken to realize them.
March 22, 2025 at 4:19 PM
robb.doering.ai
*hours later*
A meme reading “you wouldn’t download a fish. Teach the multitude. It’s a crime.” as a parody of a famous anti-piracy commercial from the early oughts (“you wouldn’t download a car”). In the middle is an image of Jesus distributing fish and bread from the “feeding the multitude” Bible story A graph+spreadsheet showing that Elsevier is unusually evil, making a shitload of profit.
March 21, 2025 at 5:10 AM
robb.doering.ai
Trump: “You know, we have a couple of bases on Greenland already, and we have quite a few soldiers that—maybe you’ll see more and more soldiers go there. I don’t know. What do you think about that, Pete? Don’t answer that, Pete. (Laughter.) Don’t answer that question.”

NYT pundits: “intriguing!”
But we’ve been dealing with Denmark. We’ve been dealing with Greenland. And we have to do it. We really need it for national security. I think that’s why NATO might have to get involved in a way, because we really need Greenland for national security. It’s very important. You know, we have a couple of bases on Greenland already, and we have quite a few soldiers that — maybe you’ll see more and more soldiers go there. I don’t know. What do you think about that, Pete? Don’t answer that, Pete. (Laughter.) Don’t answer that question. But we have bases, and we have quite a few soldiers on Greenland already. Q Mr. President, some people question your commitment to NATO. Will everything — anything change? Your com- — your commitment to NATO, will anything change? Same amount of money? PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, I think they made — Q Same number of troops? PRESIDENT TRUMP: — a great step by putting Mark in charge. I think, to me, that’s a great step, because he and I have seen eye to eye on everything for a long time. We’ve been doing this a long time now.
March 21, 2025 at 1:49 AM
robb.doering.ai
The other six are, without exception, focused on violence.

IMO, opening up terrorism to mean any act that subjectively causes people to feel any sort of fear—even fear of a stock price going down—is a slippery slope to tread indeed.

Isn’t a union strike “terrorism” in that sense? 😬
Definitions include: "the deliberate killing of innocent people, at random, to spread fear through a whole population and force the hand of its political leaders" (Michael Walzer, 2002). "the organized use of violence to attack non-combatants (‘innocents’ in a special sense) or their property for political purposes" (C. A. J. Coady, 2004). "the deliberate use of violence, or threat of its use, against innocent people, with the aim of intimidating some other people into a course of action they otherwise would not take" (Igor Primoratz, 2004).[page needed] "the use of force or violence or the threat of force or violence to change the behavior of society as a whole through the causation of fear and the targeting of specific parts of society in order to affect the entire society" (Arthur H. Garrison, 2004). "The premediated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims" (Todd Sandler, 2010). "a doctrine about the presumed effectiveness of a special form or tactic of fear-generating, coercive political violence... [as well as] a conspiratorial practice of calculated, demonstrative, direct violent action without legal or moral restraints, targeting mainly civilians and non-combatants, performed for its propagandistic and psychological effects on various audiences and conflict parties" (Schmid, 2011).
March 20, 2025 at 6:07 PM
robb.doering.ai
There’s no consensus, but I just learned a lot about the French Revolution, so that’s fun!

Long story short, only one of Wikipedias 7 “notable definitions” of the term would include nonviolent acts — the UNs:
The United Nations General Assembly condemned terrorist acts by using the following political description of terrorism in December 1994 (GA Res. 49/60): Criminal acts intended or calculated to provoke a state of terror in the general public, a group of persons or particular persons for political purposes are in any circumstance unjustifiable, whatever the considerations of a political, philosophical, ideological, racial, ethnic, religious or any other nature that may be invoked to justify them.
March 20, 2025 at 6:07 PM
robb.doering.ai
I love the indictment of radical liberalism, and the writing is powerful, but I’m bummed to read “not a deliberate genocide”, as it seems to vastly oversimplifies a complex issue that was /absolutely/ rooted in nationalistic hatred.

Obv I’m just a novice American citing wiki, but idk, seems clear:
On 1 March 1847, the Bank of England announced plans to raise a loan of £14 million to relieve the Irish crisis, and also for unfunded tax cuts. This led to the Panic of 1847, in which gold was withdrawn from circulation, so reducing the amount of bank notes that the Bank could legally circulate. By 17 April 1847 the bullion reserve of the Bank of England had diminished from £15 million in January to some £9 million, and it was announced that the cost of famine relief would be transferred to local taxes in Ireland. The financial crisis temporarily improved, but the intended relief for Ireland did not materialise. In June 1847, the Poor Relief (Ireland) Act 1847 (10 & 11 Vict. c. 31) was passed which embodied the principle, popular in Britain, that Irish property must support Irish poverty. The landed proprietors in Ireland were held in Britain to have created the conditions that led to the famine. However, it was asserted that, since the Acts of Union 1800, the British Parliament was partly to blame. This point was raised in The Illustrated London News on 13 February 1847: "There was no law it would not pass at their request, and no abuse it would not defend for them." On 24 March, The Times reported that Britain had permitted in Ireland "a mass of poverty, disaffection, and degradation without a parallel in the world. It allowed proprietors to suck the very life-blood of that wretched race". The "Gregory clause" of the Poor Law, named after William H. Gregory, MP, prohibited anyone who held at least 1⁄4 acre (0.1 ha) from receiving relief. In practice, this meant that the many farmers who had to sell all their produce to pay rent and taxes, would have to deliver up all their land to the landlord to qualify for public outdoor relief. These factors combined to drive thousands of people off the land: 90,000 in 1849, and 104,000 in 1850. The Incumbered Estates (Ireland) Act 1849 (12 & 13 Vict. c. 77) allowed landlord estates to be auctioned off upon the petition of …
March 20, 2025 at 1:21 PM
robb.doering.ai
I love me a Reagan hate party so carry on with that, but just to be my annoying “the 60s weren’t as good as fellow leftists often imply” self for a minute: despite costs+perverse motivations for this improvement, outcomes /have/ improved greatly since then — up to ~30% from ~20% in 1984
A graph from Wikipedia showing US college education rates growing since 1940 — tho there is indeed something of a plateau around 1977-1996 (Vietnam pushback +aftermath?). It was around 4-5% in 1940, and 27-30% (?) in 2015. By comparison, high school completion flattened out in the seventies after hitting ~85%, and has barely grown since.
March 19, 2025 at 11:59 PM
robb.doering.ai
Anyone in here familiar with these stats, and able to point me in the direction of an alternative explanation and/or source verification? Paging… #StatSky? Is that a thing? I’d page the economists but I think they’re busy these days with the crashing market 😬

(“Drop-offs” explained in alt text)
A graph showing drop offs in the 2024 US presidential election, which refers to when more votes are received for “downballot” members of a party than are received for the presidential nominee of that party — usually a quite rare event. This graph, if true, indicates that the downballot drop offs significantly favored Trump in swing states, but was otherwise normal/positive in non-swing states. It’s sourced from SMARTelections.us
March 19, 2025 at 4:59 PM