Market is looking for direction because it finished about where it started and the range was low.

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The range was .59%.

Technically the Rini signal is correct but we categorized it as wrong because the dominant move was upwards and not downwards.

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The 3 models for the % range are:

1. .96 (.78, 1.13)
2. .78 (.70, .86)
3. 1.04 (.94, 1.13)

Model 2 & 3 use the variable we have been collecting since July 2023.

Model 1 uses the full dataset.

Today's Rini signal predicts a closing price above the opening price.

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By the way, the graph does not include Type IV.

The last entry for "Rini absolute max" is 1.33% and not .63% actually: It finished just below the absolute max (slower predicted decline).

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Our econometric analysis, the Rini, predicted today's decline.

We will see many reasons why (e.g. Japan's yield) but it would decline anyways.

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September is coding error.

It also switches on for OMXS30 which is wrong according to the daily Stata log files.

Thus, false alarm.

M3 for Dax is ok.

September 2025, which is troubling.

These past few weeks it seems that Bitcoin and European indices are leading instead of lagging US indices.

Just an observation.

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If we combine this information with the price finishing at or close to the intraday high/low prices, we get signals that are 100% correct (we posted one in advance recently).

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the Rini min, next day we have a reversal.

If it finishes close to the Rini max/min, it reverses within the next two days.

This graph goes into the Rini presentation paper - early preview.

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Because reversals happen when the price deviates .10% to .30% from the Rini absolutes.

The red circles indicate reversals within two trading days.

If OMXS30 closes above the Rini max or below

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