The Rini
@rinimetrics.bsky.social
Econometric model to predict the daily performance of stock market indices and assets.
OMXS30 for now, Stockholm.
Not investment advice.
#stockmarket
OMXS30 for now, Stockholm.
Not investment advice.
#stockmarket
Pinned
Updated the Table.
Stellar performance for the Rini in October 2025.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Stellar performance for the Rini in October 2025.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Tuesday 02.12.25.
These cases were bearish in the past.
The baseline Rini is bearish as well with the exception of Type IV.
No M3 for OMXS30, DAX, Bitcoin, silver, gold, JD and Sealsq.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
These cases were bearish in the past.
The baseline Rini is bearish as well with the exception of Type IV.
No M3 for OMXS30, DAX, Bitcoin, silver, gold, JD and Sealsq.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
December 2, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Tuesday 02.12.25.
These cases were bearish in the past.
The baseline Rini is bearish as well with the exception of Type IV.
No M3 for OMXS30, DAX, Bitcoin, silver, gold, JD and Sealsq.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
These cases were bearish in the past.
The baseline Rini is bearish as well with the exception of Type IV.
No M3 for OMXS30, DAX, Bitcoin, silver, gold, JD and Sealsq.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
Correct.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
Today's Rini signal predicts a closing price above the opening price.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
December 1, 2025 at 8:53 PM
OMXS30 started declining on Friday, whereas US indices finished green.
It is leading today's move.
What do market participants in the Swedish stock market know? 😉
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
It is leading today's move.
What do market participants in the Swedish stock market know? 😉
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
September 2025, which is troubling.
These past few weeks it seems that Bitcoin and European indices are leading instead of lagging US indices.
Just an observation.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
These past few weeks it seems that Bitcoin and European indices are leading instead of lagging US indices.
Just an observation.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
December 1, 2025 at 1:02 PM
OMXS30 started declining on Friday, whereas US indices finished green.
It is leading today's move.
What do market participants in the Swedish stock market know? 😉
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
It is leading today's move.
What do market participants in the Swedish stock market know? 😉
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
Do you see the last circle?
OMXS30 declined on Friday while its percentage change was declining the two days before.
We went short on Thursday.
Simply need to decide when to sell now.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
OMXS30 declined on Friday while its percentage change was declining the two days before.
We went short on Thursday.
Simply need to decide when to sell now.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
A bit of proprietary knowledge.
In the graph we have converted OMXS30 closing prices and Rini absolute min/max prices into percentages for October/November 2025.
Why percentages?
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
In the graph we have converted OMXS30 closing prices and Rini absolute min/max prices into percentages for October/November 2025.
Why percentages?
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
December 1, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Do you see the last circle?
OMXS30 declined on Friday while its percentage change was declining the two days before.
We went short on Thursday.
Simply need to decide when to sell now.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
OMXS30 declined on Friday while its percentage change was declining the two days before.
We went short on Thursday.
Simply need to decide when to sell now.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
Silver was not following history because this time is different.
Seems it will continue rising into 2026.
#silver
Seems it will continue rising into 2026.
#silver
Last night downloaded weekly data for Spot Silver and discovered a pattern for weekly RSI never encountered before since 2004.
Were it following history, it should be falling this week but instead it's increasing.
Just fyi.
Were it following history, it should be falling this week but instead it's increasing.
Just fyi.
Silver:
The M3 condition that locates minima and signifies a bull switched on 10 times so far in 2025, nine of which were correct!
This is a 90% prediction success.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
The M3 condition that locates minima and signifies a bull switched on 10 times so far in 2025, nine of which were correct!
This is a 90% prediction success.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 30, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Silver was not following history because this time is different.
Seems it will continue rising into 2026.
#silver
Seems it will continue rising into 2026.
#silver
Do market participants follow/focus on exponential or simple moving averages?
Or something else, e.g. volume weighted?
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
Or something else, e.g. volume weighted?
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
November 30, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Do market participants follow/focus on exponential or simple moving averages?
Or something else, e.g. volume weighted?
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
Or something else, e.g. volume weighted?
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
CME halts futures trading on stocks, currencies and other markets, citing data center cooling issue
www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-ha...
www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-ha...
CME halts futures trading on stocks, currencies and other markets, citing data center cooling issue
Black Friday trading was off to an auspicious start after exchange operator CME was forced to halt futures trading on Friday.
www.marketwatch.com
November 28, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Yesterday, 27.11.25, the US stock market was closed.
We repeat that OMXS30 on average yields a >0 return when the US is closed.
True yesterday as well (+.36%).
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
We repeat that OMXS30 on average yields a >0 return when the US is closed.
True yesterday as well (+.36%).
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
November 28, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Yesterday, 27.11.25, the US stock market was closed.
We repeat that OMXS30 on average yields a >0 return when the US is closed.
True yesterday as well (+.36%).
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
We repeat that OMXS30 on average yields a >0 return when the US is closed.
True yesterday as well (+.36%).
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
CME halts futures trading on stocks, currencies and other markets, citing data center cooling issue
www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-ha...
www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-ha...
CME halts futures trading on stocks, currencies and other markets, citing data center cooling issue
Black Friday trading was off to an auspicious start after exchange operator CME was forced to halt futures trading on Friday.
www.marketwatch.com
November 28, 2025 at 8:08 AM
CME halts futures trading on stocks, currencies and other markets, citing data center cooling issue
www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-ha...
www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-ha...
Swedish GDP Q3 came in higher than expected.
Retail sales increased yy but decreased mm in October.
Yesterday the KI barometer was quite good.
Overall the picture is good.
Retail sales increased yy but decreased mm in October.
Yesterday the KI barometer was quite good.
Overall the picture is good.
November 28, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Swedish GDP Q3 came in higher than expected.
Retail sales increased yy but decreased mm in October.
Yesterday the KI barometer was quite good.
Overall the picture is good.
Retail sales increased yy but decreased mm in October.
Yesterday the KI barometer was quite good.
Overall the picture is good.
Not for META at the moment.
Let's see if we can locate the minina for Nvidia, Palantir and Meta.
November 26, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Not for META at the moment.
Rini for Dax.
Dax as a statistical process is very similar to OMXS30.
Creating the shock variable is quite an obstacle, though.
The M3 condition (minima) works almost perfectly apart from
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
Dax as a statistical process is very similar to OMXS30.
Creating the shock variable is quite an obstacle, though.
The M3 condition (minima) works almost perfectly apart from
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
November 26, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Rini for Dax.
Dax as a statistical process is very similar to OMXS30.
Creating the shock variable is quite an obstacle, though.
The M3 condition (minima) works almost perfectly apart from
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
Dax as a statistical process is very similar to OMXS30.
Creating the shock variable is quite an obstacle, though.
The M3 condition (minima) works almost perfectly apart from
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
A bit of proprietary knowledge.
In the graph we have converted OMXS30 closing prices and Rini absolute min/max prices into percentages for October/November 2025.
Why percentages?
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
In the graph we have converted OMXS30 closing prices and Rini absolute min/max prices into percentages for October/November 2025.
Why percentages?
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
November 26, 2025 at 12:39 PM
A bit of proprietary knowledge.
In the graph we have converted OMXS30 closing prices and Rini absolute min/max prices into percentages for October/November 2025.
Why percentages?
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
In the graph we have converted OMXS30 closing prices and Rini absolute min/max prices into percentages for October/November 2025.
Why percentages?
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
Notice how European indices jumped and remained elevated at the news that Ukraine accepts the peace deal in comparison to US futures that only jumped.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
November 25, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Notice how European indices jumped and remained elevated at the news that Ukraine accepts the peace deal in comparison to US futures that only jumped.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
The new signal is also correct and coincided with the Rini.
It means that this variable will probably be both economically and statistically insignificant in the Rini econometric specification.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
It means that this variable will probably be both economically and statistically insignificant in the Rini econometric specification.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
To be more precise, the new relationship stipulates that OMXS30 will close >0 at least one of the two following days AND that the return will be >0 (on average only .20%).
Thus, Friday's <0 opening was a fantastic opportunity to go long and since it closed <0, to keep and sell on Monday.
Thus, Friday's <0 opening was a fantastic opportunity to go long and since it closed <0, to keep and sell on Monday.
November 24, 2025 at 6:05 PM
The new signal is also correct and coincided with the Rini.
It means that this variable will probably be both economically and statistically insignificant in the Rini econometric specification.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
It means that this variable will probably be both economically and statistically insignificant in the Rini econometric specification.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Correct!
No surprise here as this type of signal is correct unless there is a negative shock or a false from backtesting.
Very good.
We are satisfied.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
No surprise here as this type of signal is correct unless there is a negative shock or a false from backtesting.
Very good.
We are satisfied.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Also supported by the Rini signal:
Half scenarios produce a bull with M13 on while the other half produce M3 with M13 and M14 on.
Backtesting shows M3 is correct in this setting.
Half scenarios produce a bull with M13 on while the other half produce M3 with M13 and M14 on.
Backtesting shows M3 is correct in this setting.
for the same reason (low opening price meaning it goes up. It did and we have traded with a fantastic return already).
We have discovered a new relationship in the data which predicts OMXS30 will finish >0 by Monday correctly 79% of the time.
We do not trade it yet
We will observe it a bit more
We have discovered a new relationship in the data which predicts OMXS30 will finish >0 by Monday correctly 79% of the time.
We do not trade it yet
We will observe it a bit more
November 24, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Correct!
No surprise here as this type of signal is correct unless there is a negative shock or a false from backtesting.
Very good.
We are satisfied.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
No surprise here as this type of signal is correct unless there is a negative shock or a false from backtesting.
Very good.
We are satisfied.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Also supported by the Rini signal:
Half scenarios produce a bull with M13 on while the other half produce M3 with M13 and M14 on.
Backtesting shows M3 is correct in this setting.
Half scenarios produce a bull with M13 on while the other half produce M3 with M13 and M14 on.
Backtesting shows M3 is correct in this setting.
for the same reason (low opening price meaning it goes up. It did and we have traded with a fantastic return already).
We have discovered a new relationship in the data which predicts OMXS30 will finish >0 by Monday correctly 79% of the time.
We do not trade it yet
We will observe it a bit more
We have discovered a new relationship in the data which predicts OMXS30 will finish >0 by Monday correctly 79% of the time.
We do not trade it yet
We will observe it a bit more
November 23, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Also supported by the Rini signal:
Half scenarios produce a bull with M13 on while the other half produce M3 with M13 and M14 on.
Backtesting shows M3 is correct in this setting.
Half scenarios produce a bull with M13 on while the other half produce M3 with M13 and M14 on.
Backtesting shows M3 is correct in this setting.
Let's see if we can locate the minina for Nvidia, Palantir and Meta.
November 21, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Let's see if we can locate the minina for Nvidia, Palantir and Meta.
The daily and intraday price moves are due to short-term investors.
This cannot be new information to market participants meaning we doubt we are the first ones to realize.
We see it in the Rini signals.
There are circumstances, though, that long-term investors dominate.
This was the case on
This cannot be new information to market participants meaning we doubt we are the first ones to realize.
We see it in the Rini signals.
There are circumstances, though, that long-term investors dominate.
This was the case on
Yesterday and today we see from the Rini that those who sell are long-term investors while those who buy are short-term investors.
Problem is how or why we pick one signal over the other in these settings.
#data #econometrics #economy #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Problem is how or why we pick one signal over the other in these settings.
#data #econometrics #economy #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 21, 2025 at 9:34 AM
The daily and intraday price moves are due to short-term investors.
This cannot be new information to market participants meaning we doubt we are the first ones to realize.
We see it in the Rini signals.
There are circumstances, though, that long-term investors dominate.
This was the case on
This cannot be new information to market participants meaning we doubt we are the first ones to realize.
We see it in the Rini signals.
There are circumstances, though, that long-term investors dominate.
This was the case on
Studying this signal and case, we cannot change this wronf prediction.
It remains false.
It remains false.
Friday 14.11.25.
The Rini produced a weak bull which was wrong.
The index reversed after passing the Rini absolute min.
#data #econometrics #economy #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
The Rini produced a weak bull which was wrong.
The index reversed after passing the Rini absolute min.
#data #econometrics #economy #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 21, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Studying this signal and case, we cannot change this wronf prediction.
It remains false.
It remains false.
Double tops on the daily OMXS30 graph are reliable fyi.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Yesterday, the OMXS30 almost formed a cup and handle pattern on the 5-day chart.
Today on the daily chart, we spotted a double top and a double bottom.
Charts are not always reliable - depends.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Today on the daily chart, we spotted a double top and a double bottom.
Charts are not always reliable - depends.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Yesterday and today we see from the Rini that those who sell are long-term investors while those who buy are short-term investors.
Problem is how or why we pick one signal over the other in these settings.
#data #econometrics #economy #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Problem is how or why we pick one signal over the other in these settings.
#data #econometrics #economy #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 21, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Double tops on the daily OMXS30 graph are reliable fyi.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Thursday 20.11.25.
The Rini signal was correctly bearish because of the high opening price.
We will stop reporting the signal for a while to avoid possible AI scraping and reverse engineering as usual.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #trading
The Rini signal was correctly bearish because of the high opening price.
We will stop reporting the signal for a while to avoid possible AI scraping and reverse engineering as usual.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #trading
November 21, 2025 at 7:26 AM
Thursday 20.11.25.
The Rini signal was correctly bearish because of the high opening price.
We will stop reporting the signal for a while to avoid possible AI scraping and reverse engineering as usual.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #trading
The Rini signal was correctly bearish because of the high opening price.
We will stop reporting the signal for a while to avoid possible AI scraping and reverse engineering as usual.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #trading
Strong opening in US indices yesterday because of Nvidia's report but then an epic decline.
Why?
- Turns out Nvidia's clients are very few, which did not subside fears for an AI bubble.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Why?
- Turns out Nvidia's clients are very few, which did not subside fears for an AI bubble.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 21, 2025 at 7:15 AM
Strong opening in US indices yesterday because of Nvidia's report but then an epic decline.
Why?
- Turns out Nvidia's clients are very few, which did not subside fears for an AI bubble.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Why?
- Turns out Nvidia's clients are very few, which did not subside fears for an AI bubble.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Things are weird indeed.
For example, the Nasdaq moved from about +2.4% to -.80%.
For example, the Nasdaq moved from about +2.4% to -.80%.
Beautiful move from -.21% to +.31% currently.
😉
Of course, during shocks that indices move together, the OMXS30 reversal prediction will most likely apply for US futures as well.
Things are weird, though.
Probably more clarity after the Nvidia report.
😉
Of course, during shocks that indices move together, the OMXS30 reversal prediction will most likely apply for US futures as well.
Things are weird, though.
Probably more clarity after the Nvidia report.
Yesterday and today OMXS30 finished close to the intraday low and today below the Rini absolute min.
It qualifies for a reversal.
Let's see as it also depends on foreign shocks these days.
It qualifies for a reversal.
Let's see as it also depends on foreign shocks these days.
November 20, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Things are weird indeed.
For example, the Nasdaq moved from about +2.4% to -.80%.
For example, the Nasdaq moved from about +2.4% to -.80%.
Why private pensions can’t fix the ageing problem
November 20, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Why private pensions can’t fix the ageing problem