Dominic Rider
@riderd.bsky.social
Liberally minded working father. Writing on policy, fairness, reform. Writes with Claude AI. GMs for friends monthly.
"What if returns disappoint?"
Norway averaged 6.6% over 27 years. At 5%, fund still reaches £1.5tn+. At 4.5% (gilt cost)? Break-even — no loss, no gain.
Ceiling: permanent national wealth.
Floor: fiscal neutrality.
That's asymmetric upside. That's patient capital.
Norway averaged 6.6% over 27 years. At 5%, fund still reaches £1.5tn+. At 4.5% (gilt cost)? Break-even — no loss, no gain.
Ceiling: permanent national wealth.
Floor: fiscal neutrality.
That's asymmetric upside. That's patient capital.
January 15, 2026 at 12:38 PM
"What if returns disappoint?"
Norway averaged 6.6% over 27 years. At 5%, fund still reaches £1.5tn+. At 4.5% (gilt cost)? Break-even — no loss, no gain.
Ceiling: permanent national wealth.
Floor: fiscal neutrality.
That's asymmetric upside. That's patient capital.
Norway averaged 6.6% over 27 years. At 5%, fund still reaches £1.5tn+. At 4.5% (gilt cost)? Break-even — no loss, no gain.
Ceiling: permanent national wealth.
Floor: fiscal neutrality.
That's asymmetric upside. That's patient capital.
"But we don't have oil surpluses."
True. So borrow at 4.5%, invest for 6-7% returns, compound the spread.
Treasury dividends from Year 10. Reinvest the rest. £2.5 trillion within a generation.
Arm's-length under the Bank of England — like Norway's fund under Norges Bank.
True. So borrow at 4.5%, invest for 6-7% returns, compound the spread.
Treasury dividends from Year 10. Reinvest the rest. £2.5 trillion within a generation.
Arm's-length under the Bank of England — like Norway's fund under Norges Bank.
January 15, 2026 at 12:38 PM
"But we don't have oil surpluses."
True. So borrow at 4.5%, invest for 6-7% returns, compound the spread.
Treasury dividends from Year 10. Reinvest the rest. £2.5 trillion within a generation.
Arm's-length under the Bank of England — like Norway's fund under Norges Bank.
True. So borrow at 4.5%, invest for 6-7% returns, compound the spread.
Treasury dividends from Year 10. Reinvest the rest. £2.5 trillion within a generation.
Arm's-length under the Bank of England — like Norway's fund under Norges Bank.
The Uprating Asymmetry: a case for consistent protection
The Uprating Asymmetry: a case for consistent protection
Last week, I opined in these pages that intergenerational fairness should be a liberal priority. A commenter rightly challenged my suggestion that pensions be linked to CPI: poverty is measured relati...
www.libdemvoice.org
January 14, 2026 at 2:23 PM
The Uprating Asymmetry: a case for consistent protection
A Liberal case for fairness across generations
A Liberal case for fairness across generations
In December I stood for Shinfield Parish Council. I came fourth, nine votes behind Reform UK, ten ahead of Labour. I am 38, work full-time, and have two children under seven. My Conservative opponents...
www.libdemvoice.org
January 14, 2026 at 2:23 PM
A Liberal case for fairness across generations