Riccardo Degasperi
@ricdegasperi.bsky.social
Research Economist @ Bank of Italy. PhD from @warwickecon.bsky.social.
6/
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟯
Path shocks affect climate-related expectations:
♻️ Investors rebalance toward greener assets
🛡️ Perceived climate risks fall
📉 Growth and consumption expectations fall
📈 Financial uncertainty rises
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟯
Path shocks affect climate-related expectations:
♻️ Investors rebalance toward greener assets
🛡️ Perceived climate risks fall
📉 Growth and consumption expectations fall
📈 Financial uncertainty rises
August 6, 2025 at 9:36 AM
6/
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟯
Path shocks affect climate-related expectations:
♻️ Investors rebalance toward greener assets
🛡️ Perceived climate risks fall
📉 Growth and consumption expectations fall
📈 Financial uncertainty rises
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟯
Path shocks affect climate-related expectations:
♻️ Investors rebalance toward greener assets
🛡️ Perceived climate risks fall
📉 Growth and consumption expectations fall
📈 Financial uncertainty rises
5/
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮
🏦 Monetary policy eases after a path shock.
✅ No trade-off, as inflation and output both fall.
In a structural counterfactual with no monetary easing,
➡️ emissions drop 3x more
➡️ output and prices drop 2x more
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮
🏦 Monetary policy eases after a path shock.
✅ No trade-off, as inflation and output both fall.
In a structural counterfactual with no monetary easing,
➡️ emissions drop 3x more
➡️ output and prices drop 2x more
August 6, 2025 at 9:36 AM
5/
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮
🏦 Monetary policy eases after a path shock.
✅ No trade-off, as inflation and output both fall.
In a structural counterfactual with no monetary easing,
➡️ emissions drop 3x more
➡️ output and prices drop 2x more
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮
🏦 Monetary policy eases after a path shock.
✅ No trade-off, as inflation and output both fall.
In a structural counterfactual with no monetary easing,
➡️ emissions drop 3x more
➡️ output and prices drop 2x more
4/
We back this up with an environmental DSGE model featuring:
🏭 green vs brown firms
💸 carbon taxes
🏦 monetary policy
The model reproduces the same inflation dynamics:
🔹 Stance shock = cost-push shock
🔹 Path shock = demand shock
We back this up with an environmental DSGE model featuring:
🏭 green vs brown firms
💸 carbon taxes
🏦 monetary policy
The model reproduces the same inflation dynamics:
🔹 Stance shock = cost-push shock
🔹 Path shock = demand shock
August 6, 2025 at 9:36 AM
4/
We back this up with an environmental DSGE model featuring:
🏭 green vs brown firms
💸 carbon taxes
🏦 monetary policy
The model reproduces the same inflation dynamics:
🔹 Stance shock = cost-push shock
🔹 Path shock = demand shock
We back this up with an environmental DSGE model featuring:
🏭 green vs brown firms
💸 carbon taxes
🏦 monetary policy
The model reproduces the same inflation dynamics:
🔹 Stance shock = cost-push shock
🔹 Path shock = demand shock
2/
Think of path shocks as 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 on climate policy.
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟭
🔹 Both shocks reduce emissions and output
🔹 But they have opposite effects on inflation:
⚠️ Current stance → inflationary (cost-push)
🌱 Path shock → deflationary (demand-driven)
Think of path shocks as 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 on climate policy.
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟭
🔹 Both shocks reduce emissions and output
🔹 But they have opposite effects on inflation:
⚠️ Current stance → inflationary (cost-push)
🌱 Path shock → deflationary (demand-driven)
August 6, 2025 at 9:36 AM
2/
Think of path shocks as 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 on climate policy.
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟭
🔹 Both shocks reduce emissions and output
🔹 But they have opposite effects on inflation:
⚠️ Current stance → inflationary (cost-push)
🌱 Path shock → deflationary (demand-driven)
Think of path shocks as 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 on climate policy.
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟭
🔹 Both shocks reduce emissions and output
🔹 But they have opposite effects on inflation:
⚠️ Current stance → inflationary (cost-push)
🌱 Path shock → deflationary (demand-driven)
1/
We exploit high-frequency surprises in carbon futures, critical minerals, and stock prices around announcements in the EU ETS
Our goal: disentangle
✅ “Current stance” shocks: changes in current carbon policy
✅ “Path” shocks: changes in future trajectory of carbon policy
We exploit high-frequency surprises in carbon futures, critical minerals, and stock prices around announcements in the EU ETS
Our goal: disentangle
✅ “Current stance” shocks: changes in current carbon policy
✅ “Path” shocks: changes in future trajectory of carbon policy
August 6, 2025 at 9:36 AM
1/
We exploit high-frequency surprises in carbon futures, critical minerals, and stock prices around announcements in the EU ETS
Our goal: disentangle
✅ “Current stance” shocks: changes in current carbon policy
✅ “Path” shocks: changes in future trajectory of carbon policy
We exploit high-frequency surprises in carbon futures, critical minerals, and stock prices around announcements in the EU ETS
Our goal: disentangle
✅ “Current stance” shocks: changes in current carbon policy
✅ “Path” shocks: changes in future trajectory of carbon policy
🧵NEW PAPER: "𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙙 𝙜𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙘𝙡𝙞𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙥𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙮"
with Filippo Natoli, Valerio Nispi Landi, and Kevin Pallara
What are the macro effects of the green transition?
We show that a shock to the speed of the transition propagates as a negative demand shock.
📄 tinyurl.com/68jsub5j
A thread👇
with Filippo Natoli, Valerio Nispi Landi, and Kevin Pallara
What are the macro effects of the green transition?
We show that a shock to the speed of the transition propagates as a negative demand shock.
📄 tinyurl.com/68jsub5j
A thread👇
August 6, 2025 at 9:36 AM
🧵NEW PAPER: "𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙙 𝙜𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙘𝙡𝙞𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙥𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙮"
with Filippo Natoli, Valerio Nispi Landi, and Kevin Pallara
What are the macro effects of the green transition?
We show that a shock to the speed of the transition propagates as a negative demand shock.
📄 tinyurl.com/68jsub5j
A thread👇
with Filippo Natoli, Valerio Nispi Landi, and Kevin Pallara
What are the macro effects of the green transition?
We show that a shock to the speed of the transition propagates as a negative demand shock.
📄 tinyurl.com/68jsub5j
A thread👇