Abstract. This paper provides the first evidence from a randomized controlled trial isolating the impact of financial assistance to prevent homelessness. In this study, individuals and families at imminent risk of homelessness were offered temporary financial assistance, averaging nearly $2,000 for those assigned to treatment. Our results show that this assistance significantly reduces homelessness by 3.8 percentage points from a base rate of 4.1%. The effects are larger for people with a history of homelessness and no children. Despite concerns about cost-effectiveness due to difficulty targeting, our estimates suggest that the benefits to homelessness prevention exceed costs.

Abstract. We test two ways to improve revenue collection efficiency for water and sanitation utilities: (i) face-to-face engagement between utility staff and customers and (ii) contract enforcement for service disconnection due to nonpayment in the form of transparent and credible disconnection notices. Engagement has no effect, while enforcement significantly increases payment. We find no effect on access to water, perceptions of the utility, relationships between tenants and property owners, or on tenant mental well-being nine months after the intervention. These results suggest that transparent contract enforcement was effective at improving revenue collection efficiency without incurring significant observed social or political costs.

Abstract. We propose a Bayesian approach to Local Projections (LPs) that optimally addresses the empirical bias-variance trade-off intrinsic in the choice between direct and iterative methods. Bayesian Local Projections (BLPs) regularize LP regressions via informative priors and estimate impulse response functions that capture the properties of the data more accurately than iterative VARs. BLPs preserve the flexibility of LPs while retaining a degree of estimation uncertainty comparable to Bayesian VARs with standard macroeconomic priors. As regularized direct forecasts, BLPs are also a valuable alternative to BVARs for multivariate out-of-sample projections.

Abstract. We show that downsizing has substantial negative effects on the health of workers who remain in the firm. We study mass layoff (ML) survivors in Austria, using workers who survive a ML themselves, but a few years in the future, as a control group. Based on high-quality administrative data, we find evidence that downsizing has persistent effects on mental and physical health, and that these effects can be explained by workers fearing for their own jobs. We also show that health effects due to downsizing imply nonnegligible costs for firms.

Abstract. In a field experiment among 9,823 customers of the Namibian water utility, we implement interventions to reduce nonpayments. The interventions are based on diagnostic surveys to identify key obstacles to payments. They address informational frictions and apply psychological commitment techniques to narrow the gap between customers’ willingness to pay and actual payments. Initially, payments increase by 29% to 55%, making the interventions highly cost-effective. Removing informational frictions has a lasting impact, but the commitment techniques produce only short-term effects. We demonstrate the effectiveness and limitations of behavioral interventions in settings where heavy-handed tools (e.g., disconnecting nonpayers) are difficult to implement.

Abstract. Export activity shapes workers’ experience-wage profiles. Using employer-employee and customs data for Brazilian manufacturing, we document that workers’ experience-wage profiles are steeper at exporters than at non-exporters and, among exporters, steeper at exporters shipping to high-income destinations. We develop and quantify a model featuring worker-firm wage bargaining, export-market entry by multi-worker firms, and human capital accumulation by workers to interpret the data. Human capital growth can explain one-half of the differences in wage profiles between exporters and non-exporters. We show that increased human capital per worker can account for one-half of the overall gains in real income from trade openness.

Abstract. Using survey data, we document that predictable exchange rate forecast errors are responsible for the uncovered interest parity (UIP) puzzle and its reversal at longer horizons. We develop a general-equilibrium model based on shock misperception and overextrapolative beliefs that reconciles these and other major exchange rate puzzles. These beliefs distortions generate both under- and over-reaction of expectations that account for the predictability of forecast errors about interest rates, exchange rates, and other macroeconomic indicators. In the model, forecast errors are endogenous to monetary policy and explain the change in the behavior of UIP deviations that emerged after the global financial crisis.

Abstract. We investigate how exposure to the One-Child Policy (OCP) during early adulthood affects marriage and fertility in China. Exploring fertility penalties across provinces over time and the different implementations by ethnicity, we show that the OCP significantly increases the unmarried rate among the Han ethnicity but not among the minorities. The OCP increases Han-minority marriages in regions where Han-minority couples are allowed an additional child, but the impact is smaller in other regions. Finally, the deadweight loss caused by lower fertility accounts for 10% of annual household incomes, and policy-induced fewer marriages contribute to 30% of the fertility decline.

Abstract. We take advantage of recent advances in genomics to revisit a classic question in economics: how do parents respond to children’s endowments and to sibling differences in endowments? We use an index based on DNA, which is fixed at conception and assigned randomly across siblings, as a proxy for educational endowments. We find that parents of nontwins display inequality aversion: given the absolute endowment level of one child, they invest less in him/her if his/her sibling has a lower genetic predisposition to education. In contrast, we find no evidence that parents of dizygotic twins react to endowment differences between children.

Abstract. We provide direct evidence on explicit and implicit biases against women among students in economics relative to other fields. We conducted a large scale survey among undergraduates in Chile, among both entering first-year students and students in years 2 and above, combining a wide battery of measures to create an index of gender bias. Economics students are more biased than students in other fields. There is some evidence that economics students are more biased already upon entry, before exposure to economics classes. The gap becomes more pronounced among students in years 2 and above, especially for male students.

Abstract. Should insurance prices vary with age? I consider competitive markets for lemons where a signal (e.g., age) partitions consumers (e.g., young and old). I study the continuum of policies from zero price discrimination (zero PD, equal prices) to full PD (no restrictions). Restricting PD can increase welfare if high-cost markets exhibit greater adverse selection, or when the high-cost market “unravels.” I characterize optimal PD and show how it is affected by changes in cost. In a calibration, optimal PD increases welfare by about $30/person-year. I extend the model to arbitrary signal structures, behavioral consumers, a monopolized industry, and multiproduct firms.

Abstract. In a macroeconomic model with drifting long-run inflation expectations, the anchoring of inflation expectations manifests in two testable predictions. First, expectations about inflation far in the future should no longer respond to news about current inflation. Second, better anchored inflation expectations weaken the relationship between unemployment and inflation, flattening the reduced-form Phillips curve. We evaluate both predictions and find that the Federal Reserve’s communication of a numerical inflation objective, first through its Summary of Economic Projections and later through the announcement of a 2% target in 2012, better anchored inflation expectations. Moreover, inflation expectations in the United States have remained anchored amid the volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, similar analysis reveals no evidence of anchoring in Japan despite the adoption of a numerical inflation target.

Abstract. We highlight a lesser-known consequence of China’s integration into the world economy: the rise of services trade. We demonstrate how the United States’ trade deficit in goods cycles back as a surplus in U.S. exports of education services. Focusing on China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, we show that Chinese cities more exposed to trade liberalization sent more students to U.S. universities. Growth in housing income and wealth allowed Chinese families to afford U.S. tuition, and more students financed their studies using personal funds. Our estimates suggest that recent trade wars could cost U.S. universities around $1.1 billion in annual tuition revenue.

Abstract. This paper analyzes private antifraud enforcement under the False Claims Act, which compensates whistleblowers for litigating against health care providers who overbill the US government. I conduct several case studies of successful whistleblower lawsuits concerning Medicare fraud, pairing new legal data with large samples of Medicare claims. I estimate that deterrence from $1.9 billion in whistleblower settlements generated Medicare cost savings of nearly $19 billion, while imposing low costs on the government. These results suggest private enforcement is a cost-effective way to combat public expenditure fraud.

Abstract. Many agricultural and environmental technologies require upfront investments. This may deter adoption, particularly in settings characterized by information, liquidity, and credit constraints. We test for these barriers to the adoption of an agricultural technique that helps address land degradation in Niger. We find little evidence that liquidity or credit constraints deter adoption: instead, providing farmers with training increases the share of adopters by over 90 percentage points. Conditional or unconditional cash transfers have no additional effect. Adoption increases agricultural output and reduces land turnover in the longer term. In our setting, training provides both specific technical knowledge and addresses behavioral constraints.

Abstract. This paper identifies productivity gains from trade by studying the manipulation behavior of firms in response to regulatory policies on international trade in China. Bunching estimates show that participation in international trade increases firm productivity. The productivity gains increase over time, indicating dynamic learning from trading. Further exploration shows no effects on R&D investment, product rationalization, and markup. Young firms and nonstate-owned firms (non-SOEs) gain more from participating in trade. Workers share productivity gains through increased wages but not from increased employment.

Abstract. I compare the impact of local tax revenue and royalties from the extraction of natural resources on governance in Colombian municipalities, leveraging plausibly exogenous variation from cadastral updates and fluctuations in the world price of oil. Higher tax revenue has a larger effect on local public goods in the areas of education, health, and water than a same-sized increase in oil royalties, despite earmarking of royalties for spending in these areas. Higher tax revenue also reduces the probability of a disciplinary prosecution against the municipal mayor, but the opposite is true for royalties, particularly for misbehavior related to public spending.

Abstract. Allocation decisions are vulnerable to political influence, but it is unclear in which situations politicians use their discretionary power in a partisan manner. We analyze the allocation of presidential disaster declarations in the United States, exploiting the spatiotemporal randomness of all hurricane strikes from 1965 to 2018 along with changes in political alignment. We show that decisions are unbiased when disasters are either very strong or weak. Only after medium-intensity hurricanes do areas governed by presidents’ co-partisans receive up to twice as many declarations. This hump-shaped political bias explains 8.3% of overall relief spending, totaling about USD 400 million per year.

Abstract. We use a nonlinear reduction in a bank’s check-cashing fees and variation in regulated check-clearing times to identify the elasticity of demand for cashing checks rather than depositing them. We find that an extra day of check-clearing time makes account holders 65.5% more likely to cash a check than deposit it, which implies they are willing to pay $11.17 per day for faster access to their funds—an effective annualized discount rate of 11,054% for the average check. We use this elasticity to evaluate recent proposals that mandate faster check-clearing times.

Abstract. We examine the causal impact of ideological education on students' political participation and career choices by exploiting China's staggered rollout of a high school curriculum reform that emphasized political indoctrination. Using nationally representative survey data on college students that the authors collected, we find that exposure to the new curriculum increases the likelihood of joining the Chinese Communist Party by 14% and raises the probability of securing state-sector jobs after graduation by 15%. These results highlight the powerful role of ideological education in shaping students' political alignments and career trajectories.

Abstract. We provide evidence that similar price effects occur from new multifamily rental housing on surrounding owner-occupied property values regardless of whether the development was subsidized. These effects were on average negative in higherincome communities, but became either non-distinguishable from zero or positive in higher-income communities with sufficient population density. These results imply that previous opposition to all new rental housing by homeowners is misguided as developments could raise property values in some higher-income neighborhoods.

Abstract. This study examines how individual spending behaviours change for different levels of experienced utility using a composite SWB indicator as a utility proxy and modelling expenditure behaviours through Engel curves across different utility regions. To perform the analysis, we use expenditure and SWB data for Italian residents in 2016 and estimate Engel curves through a non-parametric instrumental variable threshold regression approach. Our findings indicate that individual spending behaviours are characterized by distinct experienced utility functions, with respect to different goods' categories and durability, and corroborate the strict association between conspicuous consumption, social aspects of life, and well-being.

Abstract. Abused and neglected children are at extreme risk of school dropout, poor health, and destructive behaviours, yet evidence on interventions that prevent maltreatment and its harms is limited. We use a South Australian education reform to examine whether extending the school-leaving age from 16 to 17 improves maltreatment-related outcomes. Using administrative records and regression-discontinuity techniques, we find that the reform reduced first-time cases of maltreatment reported to Child Protection Services (CPS). Among adolescents with past CPS involvement, it also reduced emergency healthcare utilisation. Our findings suggest school attendance can improve child safety, with an incapacitation effect as the likely mechanism.

Abstract. This paper uses the randomized rollout of a national agricultural extension program in Uganda to study subsistence smallholders' decisions to adopt cash oilseed crops and shift to commercial farming. By eliciting yield and price expectations, we examine how beliefs evolve after the intervention and influence adoption decisions. Our findings indicate that technical and market information significantly raises farmers' expectations, leading to an average 15% increase in oilseed adoption. Results highlight the role of information in shaping beliefs and behavior, and suggest that addressing knowledge gaps and belief misperceptions about crop profitability is crucial for improving technology adoption and agricultural transformation.

Abstract. The diffusion of computerized machine tools in the mid-20th century was a pivotal step in the century-long process of factory automation. We build a novel measure of exposure to computer numerical control (CNC) using initial variation in tool types across industries and differential shifts toward CNC by type. Industries more exposed to CNC from 1970–2007 increased labor productivity and reduced production employment. Workers in more exposed labor markets adjusted by shifting from metal to non-metal manufacturing. Union members were shielded from this job loss, and some workers returned to school to retrain.