Abstract. We propose a new inference method in high-dimensional regression models and high-dimensional IV regression models. The method is shown to be

Abstract. We experimentally examine how individuals commit to a cutoff stopping rule when facing a sequence of independent lotteries. We identify two main

Abstract. This study explores the impact of primary care physicians’ childhood socioeconomic status (SES) on their patients’ health and socio-economic inequality in health. We measure physicians’ SES by their parents’ education and find that SES concordance decreases low-SES patients’ mortality substantially, while high- SES patients’ mortality does not depend on their physicians’ family background, resulting in a reduction in the SES-mortality gradient of 25%. SES concordance improves low-SES patients’ health by increasing care at the intensive margin, increasing detection of chronic conditions, and improving adherence to treatment. SES concordance elevates communication, fosters empathy and trust between physicians and low-SES patients.

Abstract. We study the estimation of peer effects through social networks when researchers do not observe the entire network structure. Special cases include sampled networks, censored networks, and misclassified links. We assume that researchers can obtain a consistent estimator of the distribution of the network. We show that this assumption is sufficient for estimating peer effects using a linear-in-means model. We provide an empirical application to the study of peer effects on students academic achievement using the widely used Add Health database, and show that network data errors have a large downward bias on estimated peer effects.

Abstract. Using administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, we study the labor market effects of a government-sponsored award given to top-performing students on Colombia’s national college exit exam. The award signals field-specific skills, leading recipients to earn seven to ten percent more than comparable peers without the signal. The benefits are concentrated among graduates from lowerreputation institutions, who enter the market with weaker signals and gain access to better job matches and higher-paying firms. These returns persist for up to five years, driven by an upward shift in the intercept of the wage-experience profile of those with weaker signals.

Abstract. This paper examines how to bundle household health insurance, treating each member’s policy as a product in the bundle. Two regimes are analyzed: pure bundling and bundle discounts. Pure bundling is socially optimal when willingness to pay differs across members, when the bundle is valued more than individual components, or when households prefer insuring costlier members, implying within-household adverse selection. Using Vietnam’s Social Health Insurance data, structural estimates show substantial heterogeneity in willingness to pay, driven mainly by health-type differences. A pure bundling policy increases consumer surplus by 43% relative to bundle discounts.

Abstract. Americans with more education vote more, but we know little about whether this effect on civic participation arises from educational quality or quantity. Using admissions lotteries at Boston charter schools, we find that charter attendance boosts voter participation, substantially increasing voting in the first presidential election after a student turns 18 by six percentage points from a baseline of 35 percent. This effect operates through increased turnout, as there is no increase in registration. Rich data enable us to explore multiple potential channels of this voting impact. Our evidence suggests that charters increase voting by increasing noncognitive skills.

Abstract. We propose a framework for value-added models that flexibly characterizes heterogeneous teacher productivity based on multidimensional student characteristics. We show that teacher effectiveness heavily depends on the specific attributes of their students. For example, the difference in value-added between well-matched and poorlymatched students for the average teacher is approximately 0.1 standard deviations in test scores. Notably, these matching effects are particularly pronounced among lowachieving students. In language arts, the standard deviation in teacher value-added is one-third larger for low-achieving students compared to high-achieving students.

Abstract. I study how domestic political considerations influence the foreign policy choices of autocratic regimes, by analyzing China’s foreign aid. First, using contractor-level data, I document how the regime uses foreign aid projects to help maintain domestic stability: aid projects are awarded to state-owned firms in Chinese prefectures hit by social unrest, increasing employment and future political stability. Second, I find that this strategy to manage domestic unrest affects the global allocation of Chinese aid, since state-owned firms pursue projects in countries where they have prior connections.

Abstract. Those involved with the criminal justice system have disproportionately high rates of mental illness and substance-use disorders, prompting speculation that health insurance, by improving treatment of these conditions, could reduce crime. Using the 2008 Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, which randomly made some low-income adults eligible to apply for Medicaid, we find no statistically significant impact of Medicaid coverage on criminal charges or convictions. These null effects persist for high-risk subgroups, such as those with prior criminal cases and convictions or mental health conditions. In the full sample, our confidence intervals can rule out most quasi-experimental estimates of Medicaid’s crime-reducing impact.

Abstract. We consider endogenous binary treatment with multiple binary instruments. We propose a novel limited monotonicity (LiM) assumption that is generally weaker than alternative monotonicity assumptions in the literature. We define and identify (under LiM) the combined compliers local average treatment effect (CC-LATE), which is arguably a more policy-relevant parameter than the weighted average of LATEs identified by two-stage least squares (TSLS), and is identified under more general conditions. Estimating the CC-LATE is trivial, equivalent to running TSLS with one constructed instrument on a subsample. We use our CC-LATE to empirically assess how knowledge of HIV status influences protective behaviors.

Abstract. Does mining activity lead to deforestation? How does investor origin affect the environmental impacts of mining operations? We investigate these questions by estimating the causal impact of mineral price changes on deforestation near mining sites. Combining global mine propertylevel data with high-resolution satellite imagery on forest cover, we find a positive elasticity of deforestation to mineral price shocks. This elasticity is significantly lower when mine owners are from countries with higher income or better institutions, but it is not affected by host country characteristics. Evidence suggests that mine owners from higher-income countries induce different types of local economic activity.

Abstract. Despite extensive evidence on the importance of non-cognitive skills for labor market outcomes, to what extent training can affect specific skills in adulthood remains an open question. We conducted a randomized controlled trial with low-skilled employed workers in Senegal where workers were randomly assigned to receive a training intervention designed to affect conscientiousness-related skills. We found that treated workers were significantly more likely to stay in their job, had higher earnings and better performance grades post intervention. Our findings suggest that non-cognitive skills can be affected later in the life cycle and targeted training can have substantial labor market returns.

Abstract. How cyclical is the U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR)? We examine exogenous state-level business cycle shocks, finding that the LFPR is highly cyclical, but with significantly longer-lived responses than the unemployment rate. After a negative shock, the LFPR declines for about four years—substantially lagging unemployment—and only fully recovers after about eight years. Our main specifications use age-sex-adjusted LFPR, and we show that using unadjusted LFPR is problematic because local shocks spur changes in the population of high-LFPR age groups. Cyclicality varies across groups, with larger and longer-lived responses among men, younger workers, less-educated workers, and Black workers.

Abstract. We examine how Rules of Origin (RoO) and cumulation provisions in Free Trade Agreements shape imports and supply chains. Using a new RoO database and two policy changes, the Pan-European Cumulation System and the 2004 EU enlargement, we show that relaxing RoO increases intermediate imports from countries where cumulation restrictions were lifted. A 1% higher value requirement before liberalization raised such imports by 0.4–0.7%. Effects are stronger when preferential margins are higher, underscoring the joint role of RoO, cumulation provisions, and tariffs in shaping sourcing decisions.

Abstract. Using administrative labor market data matched to mortality statistics and patient records, we document that negative labor market shocks produce sizable health spillovers in couples. For every 100,000 displaced men, there are 1,100 additional deaths. Of those, 60% accrue to the displaced worker, but 40% are due to excess spousal mortality. We find a stunning gender asymmetry: while male job displacement generates persistent negative health effects, no such dire consequences are observed after a woman’s job loss. We explore several explanations for these patterns: risk sharing through spousal labor supply; earnings losses and public insurance; widowhood; regional mobility and gender roles in the family.